page size 234 x 156mm but follows EUP PPC jacket Hires CMYK pdf from Indesign CS6 17mm 3mm Analyses the 30-year conflict between Soviet Laurence Broers successor states Armenia and Azerbaijan for control over the contested territory of Nagorny Karabakh The Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict for control of the mountainous territory of Nagorny Karabakh is the longest-running dispute in post-Soviet Eurasia. This book looks beyond tabloid tropes of ‘frozen conflict’ or ‘Russian land-grab’ to unpack both unresolved territorial issues left over from the 1990s and the strategic rivalry that has built up around them since. The book demonstrates how more than two decades of dynamic territorial politics, shifting power relations, international diffusion and unsuccessful mediation efforts have contributed to the resilience of this stubbornly unresolved dispute – one of the most intractable of our times. Armenia and Azerbaijan Laurence Broers is a Research Associate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London and Associate Fellow at the Royal Institute for International Affairs at Chatham House. He co-founded and co-edits the journal Caucasus Survey and has worked in diverse roles at the London-based peacebuilding organisation Conciliation Resources. 234mm Armenia and Azerbaijan Anatomy of a Rivalry ISBN 978-1-4744-5052-2 Laurence Broers edinburghuniversitypress.com Cover image: women commemorate war dead in Baku, Azerbaijan, 2013 © TOFIK BABAYEV/AFP/Getty Images Cover design: www.richardbudddesign.co.uk 3mm 17mm 2mm 2mm 17mm 3mm 156 mm 156mm 3mm 17mm spine 23mm If the Homeland is small, one dreams it large. Rubén Darío, Retorno Armenia and Azerbaijan Anatomy of a Rivalry Laurence Broers Edinburgh University Press is one of the leading university presses in the UK. We publish academic books and journals in our selected subject areas across the humanities and social sciences, combining cutting-edge scholarship with high editorial and production values to produce academic works of lasting importance. For more information visit our website: edinburghuniversitypress.com © Laurence Broers, 2019 Edinburgh University Press Ltd The Tun – Holyrood Road, 12(2f) Jackson’s Entry, Edinburgh EH8 8PJ Typeset in 11/14 Sabon by Servis Filmsetting Ltd, Stockport, Cheshire and printed and bound in Great Britain. A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 1 4744 5052 2 (hardback) ISBN 978 1 4744 5054 6 (webready PDF) ISBN 978 1 4744 5053 9 (paperback) ISBN 978 1 4744 5055 3 (epub) The right of Laurence Broers to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, and the Copyright and Related Rights Regulations 2003 (SI No. 2498). Contents Acknowledgements vi Maps, Figures and Tables x Terminology xii Introduction: Beyond ‘Frozen Conflict’ 1 1. A Violent Unravelling 17 2. Questionable Borders 48 3. Borderland into Cornerstone 84 4. Displacements 121 5. Regime Politics and Rivalry 152 6. Truncated Asymmetry 185 7. An Exception in Eurasia 213 8. Unrecognised Reality 249 9. ‘Land for Peace’ 276 Afterword: Rivalry Unending? 308 Notes 317 Index 385 Acknowledgements For authors writing on conflict acknowledgements are always fraught. Many of the dozens of people who helped me on the path to this book may disagree vehemently with the argument herein. I can only emphasise its provisional and contestable nature, and underline that responsibility for its flaws remains mine alone. This book came out of my work at Conciliation Resources (CR), a London-based peacebuilding organisation (www.c-r.org). I am greatly indebted to the vision and counsel of CR’s executive director, Jonathan Cohen, conversations with whom led to the germination of this project. I am grateful to Andy Carl, Rachel Clogg, Rhona Miller, Mira Sovakar and Juliet Williams for their moral support. It has also been a privilege to work with Marc Behrendt, Jenny Norton and Siegfried Woeber, to whom I give thanks. In surviving to book stage, the project owes a great deal to the inspiration, advice and support at critical junctures of the following individuals: Bhavna Dave, Thomas de Waal, Salpi Ghazarian, Tabib Huseynov and Gerard Toal. I am deeply grate- ful to each of them. In Armenia, I would like to thank Konstantin Geodakyan, Natalie and Hakop Harutyunyan, Levon Kalantar, and Harutyun Mansuryan of the Media Initiatives Center, with special thanks to Nune Sargsyan for advice, perspective and hospitality. For a generous supply of analytical insight and for sharing office space I am grateful to Richard Giragosian. I am likewise greatly indebted to the Caucasus Institute and the insights of its director Alexander Iskandaryan and former deputy director Sergey Minasyan. My thanks also go to Tatul Hakobyan of Civilitas for sharing his encyclopaedic knowledge. I would also like to thank the vi Acknowledgements following individuals who helped me in myriad ways while in the field in Armenia: Lara Aharonyan, Jonathan Aves, Artak Ayunts, Laura Baghdasarian, Judith Farnworth, Mark Grigorian, Nina Iskandaryan, Edgar Khachatrian, Hranush Kharatyan, Kathy Leach, Charles Lonsdale, Roubina Margossian, Ashot Melyan, Tigran Mkrtchyan, Oksana Musaelyan, Artur Sakunts, Alex Sardar, David Shahnazaryan, Araik Shirinyan, Timothy Straight, Naira Sultanyan, Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan and Maria Titizian. (In spelling Armenian surnames I have tried to be consistent with personal preferences, common usage or original sources, hence I use both -ian and -yan.) In Azerbaijan, I give special thanks to Avaz Hasanov and Mehriban Mammadova for sharing wisdom and hospitality. I am greatly indebted to Arif Yunusov and Leyla Yunus for their gen- erosity in sharing their knowledge, intellect and insight over many years. My thanks go too to Ilham Safarov and his colleagues: Myrsadyg Agayev, Naila Babayeva, Rahman Badalov, Aliya Haqverdi, Toghrul Jufarli, Shahin Rzayev and Ayaz Salayev. I would also like to thank the following individuals for assis- tance in the field in Azerbaijan: Arzu Abdullayeva, Shamkhal Abilov, Leila Alieva, Sevinc Aliyeva, Zardusht Alizade, Bakhtiyar Aslanov, Akram Aylisli, Rauf Garagozov, Ilgar Gasimov, Maryam Haji-Ismayilova, Jamil Hasanli, Novella Jafaroglu-Appelbaum, Kerim Kerimli, Ceyhun Mahmudlu, Kamal Makili-Aliyev, Polad Mammadov, Xamis Masimov, Tofig Musayev, Eldar Namazov, Atakhan Pashayev, Gulshan Pashayeva, Akif Nagi Qazakh, and Irfan Siddiq. I am particularly grateful to Adalet Tahirzade for his kind permission to feature the cover of his 2003 book The Path to Liberation and Unity as an illustration, and to Turgut Gambar for helping me with translation. In Nagorny Karabakh I would like to thank Gegham Baghdasarian and his colleagues at the Stepanakert Press Club, with special thanks to Anahit Danielyan for hosting me in September 2014. I am very grateful to the following indi- viduals for their unfailing assistance over many years: Svetlana Danielyan, Masis Mayilian, Karen Ohanjanian, Karine Ohanyan and Albert Voskanyan. I also thank Iosif and Karine Adamian, Armine Aleksanyan, Artak Beglaryan, Vera Grigorian, Naira vii Armenia and Azerbaijan Hayrumyan, Margarita Karamyan, Tigran Kyureghyan and Saro Saroyan. For conversations and exchanges that have enriched my think- ing about the issues dealt with in this book I would like to thank the following individuals: Caner Alper, Karena Avedissian, Günther Bächler, Donnacha Ó Beacháin, Mehmet Binay, Carey Cavanaugh, Roxana Cristescu, Jacques Faure, Martha Freeman, Magdalena Frichova Grono, Phil Gamaghelyan, Arzu Geybulla, Sevil Huseynova, Sossie Kasbarian, Arsen Kharatyan, Sergey Markedonov, Cigdem Mater, Anna Matveeva, Marina Nagai, Murad Nasibbeyli, Craig Oliphant, Kevork Oskanian, Amanda Paul, Dennis Sammut, Arsène Saparov, Gwendolyn Sasse, Silvia Serrano, Anahit Shirinyan, Zaur Shiriyev, Jale Sultanli, Ronald Grigor Suny, Olesya Vartanyan, Cory Welt, Ulrike Ziemer, Mikayel Zolyan and Christoph Zürcher. I am greatly apprecia- tive of the scholarly collaborations I have been fortunate to enjoy with Ceyhun Mahmudlu, Anna Ohanyan, Jean-François Ratelle, Mairbek Vatchagaev and Galina Yemelianova: thank you for broadening my horizons. I also thank all those in public office who facilitated research they had no reason to believe would support their positions on the conflict. I wish to acknowledge the openness to my enquiries of the Armenian and Azerbaijani embassies in London, and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs in both states. The representatives of the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in Stepanakert, and Robert Avetisyan of its representation in Washington, have been similarly helpful. Those who read and generously commented on draft chap- ters helped me to clarify my thinking. I am very grateful to Nina Caspersen, Thomas de Waal, Tabib Huseynov, Armine Ishkanian, Famil Ismayilov, Harrison King, Jo Laycock, David Lewis, Elene Melikishvili, Emil Sanamyan, Licínia Simão, Gerard Toal, Bettina Vaughan, Siegfried Woeber and Eliza Wright. At Edinburgh University Press I thank Jen Daly, Joannah Duncan, Sarah Foyle and Adela Rauchova for their enthusiasm for this project and support in seeing it to fruition. I am grateful to Glory Hall for designing the maps and Alfonso and María-Paola Rizo for advice on the epigraph. Lastly and most of all, I would like to viii Acknowledgements express my profound gratitude to my parents Robert and Patricia for their considerable forbearance and steadfast support of this and many other endeavours. I dedicate this book to the