Boris’s Britain Contents INTRODUCTION 03 JOHNSON WILL RELY ON CREATIVE THINKING AND SALESMANSHIP 04 GEORGE PASCOE-WATSON JOHNSON MUST TREAD A NARROW PATH IN HIS FIRST 100 DAYS 06 JAMES O'SHAUGHNESSY HOW SHOULD NO 10 RESPOND TO THEIR NEW ENIGMATIC PREMIER? 08 NICK HARGRAVE FROM CITY HALL TO DOWNING STREET – WHAT LESSONS FOR LABOUR? 10 CHRIS HOGWOOD GRAND VISIONS CLASH WITH NARROW MAJORITIES IN THIS PARLIAMENT 12 LAURA TROTT AT POLITICAL MOMENTS, OUR IMPARTIAL CIVIL SERVICE SHOWS ITS VALUE 14 VICTORIA DEAN BRUSSELS OUTLOOK: NEW FACES, SAME CHALLENGES 16 GUILLAUME AMIGUES STATE OF THE UNION(S) 18 PAUL ROBERTSON BORIS’S BRITAIN BORIS’S 02 03 | PORTLAND Introduction The Conservative Party’s leadership contest has reached its conclusion and Britain has a new Prime Minister in Boris Johnson. As one of the most unpredictable politicians of modern times, businesses, organisations and the public are wondering what a Johnson administration means for them and their external environment. In this publication, Portland’s senior staff and advisers shed light on this question. It includes an examination of Johnson’s Prime Ministerial style and priorities, along with our expectations for his first 100 days in office a period, which pointedly ends on the 31st October. Our authors, all of whom have worked in and around the centre of politics, then assess how Johnson will run the Downing Street operation, and what his premiership will mean for the Labour Party, Parliament, the Civil Service and two Unions – the UK and the EU. In order to navigate this uncertain environment, businesses need expert insight and understanding of the political dynamics and policymaking process. Portland stand ready to help. Following this initial set of perspectives, if you would like to discuss the implications for your organisation, please do not hesitate to contact us. Sam Ingleby Senior Partner and Head of Corporate Tel: +44 20 7554 1801 Mobile: +44 7904 303 217 Email: [email protected] By GEORGE PASCOE-WATSON Senior Partner and Chief Adviser, former Political Editor of The Sun Johnson will rely on creative thinking and salesmanship Boris Johnson will delegate power to his Cabinet and No 10 lieutenants, letting them govern while he presides as Britain's ambassadorial chairman. The new Prime Minister will approach the job in precisely the opposite way to Theresa May. He has described Mrs May to friends as a "yucca tree under whose branches everything dies". Mr Johnson believes the outgoing Prime Minister had no personality, was afraid of those with something to say, and so chose to surround herself with technocrats. BORIS’S BRITAIN BORIS’S 04 05 | PORTLAND Mr Johnson believes he can rely on his relationships, charm and sheer force of personality to build consensus. The new PM will use his personality It will be a much "tighter" Cabinet with and charm to lead the country, selecting ministers expected to execute policy and "characters" with the "get up and go to get judgment without constantly having to on with it." refer upwards. This means delegation of power to ministers This was the trait that paralysed Mrs May's in ways we've not seen for three years. administration. Individual departments will become much Many expect the PM to freeze out more important when it comes to legislation Remainers and those who campaigned for and regulatory activity. Jeremy Hunt. Not at all. When it comes to the imminent challenge He has told friends he plans to "suffocate posed by Brexit, Mr Johnson believes he can them with love" as he seeks to build new rely on his relationships, charm and sheer party unity. force of personality to build consensus. As for his approach to domestic policy, it's He is a politician who is willing to drop a few important to remember that Mr Johnson is bombshells, and Johnson will have to rely on a keen environmentalist, a believer in One creative solutions if Britain is to leave the EU Nation Conservatism and not the dry right- with a deal. winger that many believe him to be. But, as has been clear from his campaign, His priorities are infrastructure, skills, an early priority will be to ramp up No Deal cyber security, technology and connecting preparations, showing the UK is "deadly northern cities to each other and to the serious" about crashing out. prosperous South. Aside from Brexit, one of the first priorities He wants to create more city mayors like of this - and any - Prime Minister is to Andy Street in Birmingham and Andy assemble his team. Burnham in Manchester. Mr Johnson's advisers say his top four The new Prime Minister sees himself as Boris ministers will be, unusually, Chancellor, the Builder - allowing Heathrow expansion, Chief Whip, Party Chairman and Northern HS2, and going for more infrastructure Ireland Secretary. projects to make Britain the most This tells us an enormous amount. technological advanced country possible. Focus will be on the nation's finances, his He will rule as he did for eight years in wafer-thin Commons majority, the need London, less concerned with detail, than his for a united Conservative Party, and role as Britain's number one salesman on the getting rid of the backstop from the world stage. Withdrawal Agreement. Johnson must tread a narrow path in his first 100 days Like so many things in British politics today, Everyone who wants Brexit to happen the idea of a 'first 100 days' is borrowed from understands that Theresa May’s main the US. Invented by Franklin D. Roosevelt strategic error was failing to prepare for and used by subsequent presidents to inject No Deal properly. This oversight ended her a sense of urgency into new premierships, it premiership and crippled the Tories’ vote at has been part of the British political lexicon the Euros. PM Johnson will not make the since a youthful Tony Blair looked across the same mistake. pond for inspiration. Delivering his promise to leave by 31st For Prime Minister Johnson the number October is not in his hands alone, but could not be more significant. From the day promising to do so - as he did again on his premiership started through to Brexit the steps of No.10 - is essential both to his day on 31st October is exactly 100 days. So brand and the Tory Party’s prospects at a how will he spend his first three-and-a-bit general election. If Parliament tries to stop months, if he gets that far? him fulfilling his pledge then he will go down His initial task was to bring together a swinging - do or die. functioning government. Given the walkout PM Johnson wants to avoid this scenario, of some Cabinet and other ministers, and so alongside the no deal planning will be assembling a ‘government of all the talents’ a serious effort - above and below the radar was always going to be a stretch. But he’s - to put together both a new deal and a new gone much further than expected, brutally coalition that might support it. so, and packing the Cabinet with resolute If this sounds like an impossible task, then Brexiteers suggests he is warming up for a remember that one of Johnson’s main general election. It’s a team geared towards political attributes is an ability to make a a Brexit-based contest not a long spell of broad variety of people think he supports administration. While the ideological bent of their particular perspective to the hilt. the new Cabinet might put some off, we can Being ready for no deal involves having a all applaud an increased number of women sympathetic and imaginative Chancellor, and people from ethnic minorities, including something Theresa May could never rely two of the great offices of state. on. We can be reasonably confident that His challenges now are ones of political Chancellor Javid is prepared to use the strategy, as well as party management. dividend of 10 years of austerity to prepare They fall into three categories: domestic, the economy for long-term challenges, economic, and Brexit. making some big plays on housing, The next few weeks will involve devising and infrastructure, skills, R&D and productivity delivering a multi-layered Brexit strategy that in his first Budget. is built on the foundation of serious planning Domestic policy is the big lacuna, and few for No Deal. BORIS’S BRITAIN BORIS’S know what to expect apart from a slew of 06 07 | PORTLAND By JAMES O'SHAUGHNESSY Member of Portland’s Advisory Council, former Director of Policy for David Cameron and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State in the Department of Health and Social Care high level promises, but this is where his How PM Johnson chooses between these biggest non-Brexit decision must be made. worldviews will determine how he fares in There are two schools of political theory in the next general election. Or at least it will if the Party. They are exemplified by Liz Truss the country can get beyond Brexit, because on one hand and Michael Gove on the other. if PM Johnson is forced to the polls without The Truss worldview - seemingly dominant delivering on his central promise then the in the Cabinet - sees the Conservatives narrow path he is currently treading may be vigorously championing economic swallowed by a much bigger tide. liberalisation, in homage to Thatcher, and trying to persuade freedom-loving urban millennials to embrace the Party. One of Johnson’s main political The Gove-ite view is quite different. It sees attributes is an ability to make the Party’s future voters as being more a broad variety of people think concerned with security than freedom, living in towns not cities, and looking for he supports their particular more spending on public services rather perspective to the hilt.