In business, being on the leading edge -- ahead of the curve, just a shade in front Top 10 Emerging of the masses -- is where companies find real profit. The Thoroughbred game is no different: identifying an emerging sire before others find him is the cutting edge of Thoroughbred the market. Such a discovery, especially where the stallion is underappreciated com- mercially, manifests itself as extraordinary value. Yearling sales are the classic example of opportunity for those who recognize Broodmare Sires emerging sires. Breeding stock sales, though, offer vast prospects for the savvy Thoroughbred investor to identify young broodmare sires whose ability in that role at the Keeneland has not been commercially exploited. In years past, broodmare sires like Quiet American, Machiavellian, Kahyasi (IRE), and Dehere were beginning to show their November Sale prowess as damsires, but the marketplace had not yet caught on and maximized the commerciality of their daughters. The aforementioned quartet can no longer be considered “up-and-coming” broodmare sires; their daughters are now well-appre- ciated, lessening the opportunity to locate undervalued daughters in the sales market. Finding the next “emerging” broodmare sire and staying ahead of the curve is invariably a matter of thorough research based on sound principles. The team at TrueNicks, in association with the industry newsletter The Blood-Horse MarketWatch, has developed a top-10 list of emerging broodmare sires whose daughters may rep- resent value at the upcoming Keeneland November breeding stock sale. In developing the list, we started a process of elimination whereby the cream really did rise to the top. At this sale, there are some 756 different broodmare sires represented -- a massive number -- but bringing the list down to a focus on young broodmare sires of proven performance was not a difficult task. We began by eliminating the stallions whose first foals as a damsire were born prior to 2002. This eliminated half the broodmare sires represented at the sale and left us with a list of stallions whose first runners as broodmare sires have just started to make their mark, a good start for an “emerging” list. We then eliminated stallions that had not produced three or more stakes winners as a broodmare sire, and those that had yet to produce stakes winners out of at least two unique mares. We further winnowed the list by retaining only those stallions that have produced at least one graded stakes winner. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we limited the horses to those that had “upgraded” the stallions that their daughters have been bred to. To do this, we used the Average Earnings Index (AEI) of the stallion as a broodmare sire relative to the Comparative AEI (Comp AEI) to judge if the damsire was a positive or negative influence in that role. Broodmare sires whose AEI outstripped their Comp AEI were retained, while those that failed to do so were eliminated. This final process left us with a clear list of 10 top young broodmare sires, and five additional stallions that we believe are worth further consideration. Noted Thoroughbred bloodline analysts Alan Porter and Matt O’Neil of Pedigree Consultants LLC reviewed these stallions and present the top 10 emerging brood- mare sires at the Keeneland November Sale: 10. Kris S. has been an excellent broodmare sire, and his Florida-based son Kissin Kris (Kris S. – Toes Forward, by Your Alibhai) is showing signs that he might follow suit. His star in this role is the grade I-winning filly Backseat Rhythm, a daughter of El Corredor. He also has a stakes winner by Is It True, and a stakes-placed horse by that stallion’s son Yes It’s True, an interesting connection since Kissin Kris sired graded stakes-winning millionaire Kiss a Native out of a half-sister to the dam of Yes It’s True. TrueNicks.com / TOP 10 EMERGING THOROUGHBRED BROODMARE SIRES AT THE KEENELAND NOVEMBER SALE 1 Highest-rated in utero foals carried by Kissin Kris mares at this sale are hips 71 (the dam of Backseat Rhythm carrying a sibling to the grade II winner), 2308 (graded stakes-placed Juliet’s Kiss, carrying a foal by Silver Train) – both matings earning A++ ratings – and hip 3097 (Kissin For Fun, carrying a foal by Giacomo that is rated A+). 9. Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Tabasco Cat (Storm Cat – Barbicue Sauce, by Sauce Boat) was exported to Japan after standing his first several seasons in Kentucky. Daughters from those U.S. crops have so far produced 10 black type win- ners, five of them stakes winners in 2008. Desert Party, the highest-priced juvenile sold in North America this year at $2.1 million, is the headliner of that group, having won the grade II Sanford Stakes at Saratoga in July. He is a son of the Mr. Prospector grandson Street Cry (IRE). Tabasco Cat mares have produced six other stakes win- ners by Mr. Prospector-line stallions, including black type winners by Carson City, Lemon Drop Kid, Crafty Prospector, and the Gone West sons Grand Slam, Came Home, and Western Expression. There are seven Tabasco Cat mares entered at Keeneland November, three of them by Mr. Prospector-line sires. Interestingly, only one of those prospective foals carries a TrueNicks rating of B or better. Hip 4017 is in foal to the Unbridled’s Song son Political Force, a mating rated B by TrueNicks based on the very successful Unbridled’s Song –Storm Cat cross. Hip 3893, in foal to Holy Bull’s Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Giacomo, is rated A by TrueNicks. Holy Bull, too, has had success with Storm Bird/Storm Cat-line mares, producing grade II winner Woke Up Dreamin and stakes winner Candybedandy on the cross. 8. The late Storm Cat stallion Forest Wildcat (Storm Cat – Victoria Beauty, by Bold Native) is a contemporary of Unbridled’s Song and Smart Strike, and his daughters too are doing good work so far. He is the damsire of four stakes winners, three in 2008 alone. First-crop sire Candy Ride (ARG) is the sire of Evita Argentina out of the Forest Wildcat mare Jealous Wildcat. The juvenile filly defeated Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) champion Stardom Bound in the grade III Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar in August. Forest Wildcat is also the damsire of the Top Young Damsires by Stakes Winners First Crop Stallion as Damsire Starters Winners SW Graded SW Gr. I SW Maria's Mon 2002 74 51 7 2 0 Birdonthewire 2002 26 17 6 1 1 Pulpit 2003 51 25 6 1 0 Anabaa 2002 107 56 5 3 1 Grindstone 2002 98 60 5 2 0 Langfuhr 2003 55 33 5 1 1 Danehill Dancer (IRE) 2003 36 11 4 3 0 Forest Wildcat 2002 120 72 4 1 0 Hennessy 2002 170 95 4 1 0 Honour and Glory 2002 122 62 4 2 0 TrueNicks.com / TOP 10 EMERGING THOROUGHBRED BROODMARE SIRES AT THE KEENELAND NOVEMBER SALE 2 first stakes winner inbred to Storm Cat in Ingrid the Gambler. Earlier this year, the daughter of Storm Cat’s grandson Johannesburg won the Wishing Well II Handicap at Santa Anita. Forest Wildcat is also the damsire of the 2008 Mr. Greeley stakes winner Terriffico. There are 22 daughters of Forest Wildcat being offered in the Keeneland November sale; 16 of them are in foal, including Hip 709 who is in foal to Candy Ride (A++ TrueNicks rating). Hip 1326 is also carrying an A++ rated foal. She is pregnant to the cover of Tiznow, who has sired grade I winner and champion Folklore and graded winner Tiz Wonderful out of Storm Cat-line mares. 7. Best remembered in the for his impressive 1997 Breeder’s Cup Mile (gr. I) tri- umph, Spinning World (Nureyev – Imperfect Circle, by Riverman) stood in the U.S. for a while, but has had a greater impact in Europe and Australia. It is therefore not surprising that so far his influence as a broodmare sire has been European, the three stakes winners out of his daughters being foaled on that side of the Atlantic. The trio are Silk Blossom (IRE) (by the Sadler’s Wells horse Barathea (IRE), and having the close genetic relatives Sadler’s Wells and Nureyev 2 x 3); and listed win- ners Green Lyons (IRE) (by Green Desert, by Danzig) and Kirkinola (GB) (by Selkirk, by Sharpen Up (GB)). Among the three Spinning World mares in the November sale are hips 2911 (Wild Ruffles (AUS), carrying a Lion Heart foal rated A) and 2544 (Alleged World, a daughter of Miss Alleged, carrying a Grand Slam foal rated B, and bred on similar lines to Miss Alleged’s stakes winner Zghorta). 6. As a son Wavering Monarch – himself something of an underrated broodmare sire – it’s no surprise to see Maria’s Mon (Wavering Monarch – Carlotta Maria by Caro (IRE)) off to a bright start as a sire of broodmares. His daughters have so far produced six stakes winners. Two of these are by the Storm Cat-line stallions Van Nistelrooy (English group winner Raymi Coya) and Harlan’s Holiday, pointing to an Top Young Damsires by AEI (min. 2 starters) Stallion Damsire Starters Winners SW AEI Comp AEI High Yield 2005 2 2 1 3.840 1.493 San Romano 2003 2 2 1 3.785 1.426 Langfuhr 2003 55 33 5 3.754 1.547 Birdonthewire 2002 26 17 6 3.532 1.475 Polish Pro 2003 8 4 2 2.723 1.307 Hesabull 2003 7 4 1 2.689 1.350 Arch 2003 12 8 3 2.518 1.657 Run Softly 2004 7 5 1 2.432 1.328 Menifee 2005 2 1 0 1.981 1.838 Virginia Rapids 2002 23 11 1 1.936 1.466 Anabaa 2002 107 56 5 1.905 1.493 Whiskey Wisdom 2002 14 9 1 1.840 1.332 Skip Away 2004 17 9 1 1.723 1.415 Dance Brightly 2004 20 11 1 1.690 1.434 Wild Zone 2002 29 16 2 1.683 1.369 TrueNicks.com / TOP 10 EMERGING THOROUGHBRED BROODMARE SIRES AT THE KEENELAND NOVEMBER SALE 3 early affinity.