The U.S. Automobile Industry: An Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference 9-15-08 Kim Hill Associate Director, Economic and Business Group Director, Automotive Communities Program Center for Automotive Research It’s always about product….. Auto manufacturing operations in 25 states State Plants Employment MI 49 78,159 OH 25 40,976 KY 5 23,606 IN 11 22,337 TN 6 18,904 AL 5 14,119 CA 3 12,019 MO 6 11,688 IL 4 9,048 SC 1 4,500 TX 2 4,307 MS 1 3,662 WI 2 3,289 NY 3 2,911 DE 2 2,540 KS 1 1,969 LA 1 1,877 GA 2 1,476 WV 1 1,150 MN 1 1,060 OK 1 788 AR 1 600 MD 1 423 PA 1 319 VA 1 102 Total 136 261,829 Automobile parts manufacturing operations in 50 states !"#"$ %&"#'()&*+$,"& %+-(./+$," !"#"$ %&"#'()&*+$,"& %+-(./+$," Michigan !"! #$%&!'! Oregon !! $&$%' Ohio ()' )'&((* Minnesota !% $&*'' +,-./,/ $!# !"&#(' 0/,1/1 (% *&))% Tennessee #)% $"&'#* 23.45,/ !) *&6)! 07,89:;< #%$ $#&(6% Washington "' *&6%" +==.,5.1 *6! *"&%($ West Virginia #% *&#'# >/=.?53,./ 6*) *(&*'# Massachusetts (( #&!"' New York #6% **&!6$ Maryland $# #&6)( North Carolina #%$ #"&%#) Louisiana $* #&6'' 2=/@/A/ #'# #!&"*! New Hampshire #" #&6'' Wisconsin #(# #6&*!' >5=53/-5 %" #&*"" South Carolina )$ #(&6(* New Jersey %! #&''( Missouri #$) #$&6#6 North Dakota #$ )(' Pennsylvania #(% #*&(!* South Dakota #% !)( Texas *%) ##&"*# Nevada *6 6'' B753C./ ##) #'&$(% Vermont ( $!' +5D/ 6* !&%6% E7=/D/37 ( $#$ Virginia !$ 6&)%6 Maine ## *)' Mississippi %6 6&!#$ Rhode Island % *"! 23;/,1/1 (6 %&"(' Wyoming #' #6' F=53.-/ #!% (&")' Montana #( #'' >5,,7:8.:98 6' (&#') New Mexico #% #'' Utah (* (&''' +-/G5 ## 6" Oklahoma 6' $&)$# H/D/.. 6 *% Nebraska $' $&)'! 2=/1;/ * ) T o t a l 01233 4351464 707 891958 Employment contribution of the automobile industry • Of all the jobs created by the direct employment of the automobile industry: – 18% are in manufacturing – 82% are in non-manufacturing Jobs in and created by the automotive sector • Engineering • R&D, Scientistific • Administrative and support positions (Waste, IT, etc.) • Management • Logistics: Transportation & Warehousing • Manufacturing • Finance • Legal • Sales • Accounting • Public Relations and Marketing • Human Resources Auto jobs are good jobs: 2006 average annual salaries Toyota U.S. Operations $73,141 Motor Vehicles $63,088 Motor Vehicle Parts $46,998 Insurance carriers $44,783 Durable Goods $38,054 Manufacturing $35,923 Financial activities $34,965 Total Private $29,529 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Sources: Toyota, Center for Automotive Research, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Series CEU Feb. 26, 2008: 3,650 direct employees Feb 29, 2008 March 7, 2008 By April 5, 2008: March15, 2008 40,000 assembly/ March 22, 2008 component employees April, 5, 2008 + 40,000 lower tier suppliers 3,650 => 80,000 Major Industry Challenges • Economic cycle • Credit crisis • Price of energy • Materials inflation • Segment shifts • Government mandates • New competition • Emerging markets • New technologies Down the Slippery Slope! Total U.S. Sales of Light Vehicles: 1992 - 2009 Car MV/CSU/CUV Other Truck/Van 20.0 17.4 18.0 17.0 17. 16. 2 16. 16.6 9 16.9 16.5 16.1 15.6 8 16.0 15.0 14.7 15.1 15.0 14.5 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 14.3 14.0 13.3 13.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 12.0 2.6 2.9 3.7 3.8 6.8 6.9 Millions 2.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.8 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.8 4.8 8.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.8 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.6 2.0 0.0 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Year Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports U.S. Automotive Manufacturing Sector Capacity Utilization 1978-2008 YTD 100 91 87 84 82 79 n 73 o 80 i t a 73 z i l 60 67 i 63 t U 51 y 40 t i c a p 20 a C 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 9 9 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 0 9 8 8 9 9 0 9 9 0 0 8 8 8 9 0 0 7 0 6 8 6 8 0 2 0 2 4 6 4 2 4 8 8 Year Source: Federal Reserve, data through June 2008 Percentage Change in U.S. Sales of Light Vehicles: YTD Through August: 2008 vs. 2007 9,800,814 Total -11.2 -1,235,657 2,495,358 Imports -2.6 -67,289 (25.5%) 2,848,235 Int. Domestics -3.6 -106,985 (29.1%) 566,218 Korea -1.8 -10,345 (5.8%) 4,020,151 Japan -3.4 -143,317 (41.0%) 4,457,221 Big 3 -19.2 -1,061,383 (45.5%) 1,076,426 Chrysler Group -23.9 -338,802 (11.0%) 1,421,591 Ford -15.2 -254,734 (14.5%) 1,959,204 GM -19.3 -467,847 Updated (20.0%) 0909/08 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: Automotive News Percentage Change 12 Percentage Change in U.S. Sales of Passenger Cars: YTD Through August: 2008 vs. 2007 5,285,787 Total -2.4 -131,319 (53.9%) 1,766,113 Imports +87,382 5.2 (33.4%) 1,779,057 Int. Domestics +23,177 1.3 (33.7%) 401,913 Korea +41,414 11.5 (7.6%) 2,529,433 Japan +63,859 2.6 (47.9%) 1,740,617 Big 3 -12.2 -241,878 (32.9%) 346,398 Chrysler Group -21.3 -93,660 (6.6%) 510,299 Ford -5.1 -27,490 (9.7%) 883,920- GM -12.0 120,728 Updated 09/09/08 (16.7%) -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Source: Automotive News Percentage Change Percentage Change in U.S. Sales of Light Trucks: YTD Through August: 2008 vs. 2007 4,515,027 Total -19.7 -1,104,338 (46.1%) 729,245 -154,671 Imports -17.5 (16.2%) 1,069,178 -130,162 Int. Domestics -10.9 (23.7%) 164,305 -51,759 Korea -24.0 (3.6%) 1,490,718 Japan -12.2 -207,176 (33.0%) 2,716,604 Big 3 -819,505 -23.2 (60.2%) 730,028 Chrysler Group -25.1 -245,142 (16.2%) 911,292 Ford -20.0 -227,244 (20.2%) 1,075,284 Updated 09/09/08 GM -24.4 -347,119 (23.8%) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Source: Automotive News Percentage Change Down Below 50% “Detroit 3” U.S. Market Share 1986 – August 2008 (Sales of Detroit 3 N. American “owned” production) Ford GM Chrysler 45.0 39.2 40.0 33.5 35.0 30.0 25.5 t n 25.0 21.8 e 20.0 c r e 20.0 P 14.7 14.5 15.0 11.4 10.0 11.0 5.0 0.0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 YTD Year Source: CAR Research U.S. Market Share Forecast Through 2011 (Sales of Detroit 3 N. American “owned” production) Detroit 3 Internationals 80.0 72.4 73.7 70.0 60.0 56.0 t n 50.4 e c 50.0 r e 44.0 P 49.6 40.0 27.6 30.0 26.3 20.0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Year Source: CAR Research Market Share: Segment Breakdown - U.S. LV Sales Through August: 2008 Pickup 14.4 Van 6.3 SUV 8.7 CUV 18.0 Luxury Car 7.6 Large Car 3.5 Middle Car 21.6 Small Car 19.8 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports Percent Share Segment Breakdown - U.S. LV Sales YOY % Change Through August: 2008 Pickup -23.5 Van -19.5 SUV -32.5 CUV -4.5 Luxury Car -9.6 Large Car -27.0 Middle Car -3.1 Small Car 8.9 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports Percentage Change Ford Sales Performance by Segment YOY Difference thru August: 2008 vs. 2007 Pickups - 23.4% (28% of total Ford Sales) Contractors are buying fewer pickups due to housing market slump, pickups no longer viable for commuting SUVs - 38.9% (8% of total Ford Sales) Explorer is selling poorly despite recent redesign, CUVs replacing this segment for most buyers Cars - 7.0% (38% of total Ford Sales) Reduced fleet sales and incentives CUVs -0.9% (18% of total Ford Sales) The Edge and Escape continue to sell well, Flex arriving in showrooms Source: Automotive News Data Center GM Sales Performance by Segment YOY Difference thru August: 2008 vs. 2007 Pickups - 23.4% (24% of total GM Sales) Contractors are buying fewer pickups due to housing market slump, pickups no longer viable for commuting SUVs - 35.6% (13% of total GM Sales) GMT900’s and GMT360’s struggle Cars - 9.7% (46% of total GM Sales) Too much old product; Aura and Malibu to the rescue CUVs - 5.9% (11% of total GM Sales) Lambdas transform GM’s CUV lineup Source: Automotive News Data Center Chrysler Sales Performance by Segment YOY Difference thru August: 2008 vs.