24th October 2013 Nigeria’s National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan Presentation of the Draft Final NIIMP National Economic Council Presentation Outline ▪ Background and rationale for NIIMP – Expected benefits – Approach and methodology – Overview of work concluded to date ▪ Key conclusions – National requirements for infrastructure – Infrastructure needs by sector, region – Identified priorities – Enablers for implementation 1 Background ▪ Infrastructure is a key driver of Economic Growth and Development , enabling competitiveness and improving quality of life for citizens ▪ Current infrastructure stock is inadequate , constraining socio-economic development and targets established in the Nation’s key policy documents ▪ A Master Plan for Infrastructure Sector is crucial to address challenges – On 1.11.2012, Framework for development of NIIMP was validated with the National Economic Council (NEC) – On 21.11.2012, Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the Framework for the National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan 2014-2043 (NIIMP) – Coordination by National Planning Commission – On 31.01.2013, project development structure for NIIMP was inaugurated 2 The Nigeria National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) ▪ NIIMP provides the capital allocation framework , which identifies the required investments to bring infrastructure in Nigeria in line with the country’s growth aspirations ▪ The plan also identifies and elaborates on enablers for implementation that would need to be put in place for successful execution What NIIMP is What NIIMP is not ▪ Capital allocation framework ▪ Government or national budget identifying required investments in ▪ Identification of all economic developing and maintaining national development priorities and required capital asset stock of physical fixed investments assets with long lifetime, such as ▪ Complete budget of investments transport lines, power plants and required in the non-core infrastructure, refineries, communication networks, such as teachers for schools, doctors water systems, public utility buildings for hospitals, farmers and farming and similar assets equipment, etc. 3 Expected Benefits of NIIMP Enhanced Economic Growth Prioritized Projects and Programmers' Robust Framework Efficient Allocation of Benefits for Infrastructure Resources' Development Enabling Environment for Positive Externalities Investors Guide Investors 4 A Project Development Structure was utilized to oversee the development of NIIMP FEC Political Leadership Consideration and Business approval for implementation NEC Support Group NSC Overall Direction Intellectual leadership Coordinating Secretariat Project Management NTWG Consultant (NPC & ICRC) Technical Input TWG TWG TWG TWG … 5 Infrastructure in the Nigeria Vision 20:2020 POLITY Peaceful, harmonious and a EDUCATION stable polity MACRO-ECONOMY Modern and vibrant education A sound, stable and globally system which provides the competitive economy with a opportunity for maximum GDP of not less than $900 billion potential, adequate, and and a per capita income of not competent manpower less than $4000 per annum AGRICULTURE INFRASTRUCTURE NATIONAL A modern technologically enabled agricultural sector that Adequate ASPIRATIONS fully exploits the vast agricultural infrastructure services resources of the country, that support the full ensures national food security and contributes to foreign mobilization of all exchange earnings economic sectors MANUFACTURING HEALTH A vibrant and globally A health sector that supports and competitive manufacturing sustains life expectancy of not less sector that contributes than 70 years and reduces to the significantly to GDP with a barest minimum the burden of manufacturing value added of infectious and other debilitating not less than 40% diseases 6 Infrastructure in the Transformation Agenda Key Outcomes Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Priority Areas Poverty Alleviation Good Governance Better Human Capital Resource Objectives Management Development Developing Infrastructure Strong & Job Well-being Institutions Inclusive Creation of Nigerians Growth Sustained Real Sector Economic Development Development of adequate infrastructure stock for the country as critical output 7 Relationship between NIIMP, Nigeria Vision 20:2020 and Transformation Agenda Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 Second First National National Third National Implementation Implementation Implement- Plan Plan ation Plan (2010- 2013) (2014- 2017) (2018- 2020) FG Transforma- tion Agenda (2 (2011- 2015) NIIMP (2014 - 2043 ) 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2030 2040 2045 Annual Budgets 8 Scope of the NIIMP Scope of NIIMP Content ▪ Benchmarking of Nigeria’s current state of infrastructure vs. other countries ▪ Aspired overall infrastructure stock and 1 National required investment (‘top-down’) vision ▪ Sectoral aspiration and outcome targets Sector 2 strategies ▪ Infrastructure stock targets and required investments (‘bottom-up’) ▪ Regional investment profile based on 3 Regional strategies socio-economic needs ▪ Prioritised project portfolios for the first 4 Priority project portfolios 5 years ▪ Detailed and exhaustive project list Individual projects by sector (will change over time) ▪ Spending split (public vs. private sector) 5 Financing plan ▪ Financing options 6 Implementation plan ▪ Governance, monitoring and legal requirements 9 Involvement of The NIIMP has been developed through extensive Coordinating Consultants work over this year Today Jan-MarApr May Jun Jul Aug-Sep Oct 31 Jan 15 Apr 24 May 21 Jun 12 Aug Project Coordinating Interim Draft Final Draft Key mile- inauguration & consultants NIIMP NIIMP NIIMP stones setup of TWGs appointed 31 Jan 25 Apr 23–24 May Jul–Aug Planning TWG meeting NTWG and NSC Syndication and Syndication bootcamp #1 (kickoff) meetings alignment meetings to be held ▪ NSC with FEC Multiple meetings with ▪ Geopolitical zones Key and National BSG and development ▪ Infra Ministers interac- Assembly partners ▪ EMIT tions Feb 19 TWG meeting #2 7–9 May 11–13 Jun, 2-4 Jul Syndication TWG meeting TWG meetings #5 meeting with #4 (‘Summit ’) and #6 NEC Vision definition Aspiration setting Enabling environment Key ▪ Current infrastructure stock ▪ Required investment ▪ Prioritised project portfolio analyses ▪ Sectoral requirements and ▪ International benchmarking ▪ Financing options gaps ▪ Gap assessment per asset ▪ Requirements for successful class implementation 10 The NIIMP incorporates inputs from a number of stakeholders Technical Working ▪ 11 TWGs 1, comprising ~500 experts from MDAs, and public Groups 1 (TWGs) and private sector institutions, chaired by key infrastructure National TWG Ministers (6 meeting rounds) National Steering ▪ National Technical Working Group (NTWG) and National Committee Steering Committee (NSC) meetings EMIT ▪ Presentation to key infrastructure ministers and to EMIT ▪ Six validation meetings in all geopolitical zones (ca. 100- Over 1,500 States and Regions 200 representatives per meeting) stakeholders ▪ Participation through the Regional TWG engaged to date Business Support ▪ Report from Organised Private Sector incorporated Group (BSG) ▪ Multiple interactions throughout NIIMP development process Reports from AfDB, World Bank and CBN 2 Development ▪ Partners (AfDB, ▪ Regular working sessions World Bank), ▪ Inputs collected during SEC’ s Round Table on “Financing Central Bank, SEC Infrastructure through the Capital Market” 1 Energy; Transport; ICT; Water, Agriculture and Mining; Housing & Regional Development; Social Infrastructure; Vital Registration & Security,; States’ Infrastructure Development; Finance Mechanism; Plan Delivery, Monitoring &Evaluation; Legal and Regulatory ; 2 “An Infrastructure Action Plan for Nigeria” (AfDB, 2013), “Nigeria’s Infrastructure: A Continental Perspective” (World Bank, 2011); “Development of a National Infrastructure Financing Policy: Policy Recommendations” (CBN, 2013) 11 What makes NIIMP distinct from other plans? ▪ National perspective – view on required national infrastructure in the context of economic development objectives ▪ Integrated view – consideration of needs and a capital allocation perspective across sectors, cognizant of cross- linkages ▪ Extensive stakeholder engagement , including involvement of private sector in the development of the plan ▪ Clear focus on implementation enablers 12 Key questions addressed in NIIMP 1 What is the level of required investments to develop infrastructure in line with Nigeria's economic development targets and how to reach this target level? 2 What are the investments required by each What? asset class? 3 How should the investments be allocated across the regions? 4 What are the priority project portfolios across asset classes? 5 How will the NIIMP be financed? How? 6 How do we drive implementation of NIIMP? 13 1 Over the past 10 years, Nigeria’s economy has grown by an average of 7.6% p.a., in line with leading emerging markets Real Nigerian GDP evolution $ billion, constant 2005 Real GDP compound annual growth, 2000 - 10 % 184 172 +7.6% p.a. 160 Brazil 3.3 149 141 Russia 4.7 129 121 109 112 BRICS India 7.3 95 China 10.2 South 3.4 Africa Nigeria 1 7.6 Other Angola 10.6 SSA 2003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2012 Kenya 4.2 1 Nigeria 2003-2012 SOURCE: Global Insight 14 1 The forecast is for the economy to X% 2012–43 compounded annual growth continue on a strong growth path Nigeria real GDP, 1 USD billions (2010 constant prices) +8% p.a. 3,000 Only 5 countries France ever grew by this 2,553 much in a 30-year 2,000 frame ▪ Equatorial Mexico Guinea