MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN April 2014 Planning is a critical process in any organization. Middlesex Community College recognizes that every organization operates INSTITUTIONAL in an environment of needs, contingencies, and relationships. With heightened challenges in enrollment and the changing RESEARCH AND demographics, an analysis of the environment has become a part of the planning process. As the College begins its Strategic PLANNING Planning process, it will focus on the findings in this [email protected] environmental scan to align academic programs and enrollment goals with the needs of its environment. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014 CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Framework....................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Key Observations ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Geography and Population ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Economic Trends ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 The Public School Environment............................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter I – Geography and Population ......................................................................................................... 6 Current Population ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Regional Projections ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Projections by County ............................................................................................................................................... 9 Projections for the Northeast Region of Massachusetts ..................................................................................... 9 Domestic Migration ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Immigration .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 Projections by Town ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Demographic Projections ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Projections by Age and County ............................................................................................................................. 14 Aging of the Population: Implications ................................................................................................................. 15 Labor Force Participation among Young Adults: Implications ....................................................................... 15 Age by Town ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Gender Achievement Gap ..................................................................................................................................... 18 Race and Ethnicity ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Shifts in Race and Ethnicity 2000-10 ................................................................................................................... 21 Projections for Race and Ethnicity: 2020 ............................................................................................................ 22 Chapter II – Economic Trends ..................................................................................................................... 24 Median Household Income by County..................................................................................................................... 24 Median Household Income Projections .............................................................................................................. 25 Employment Trends .................................................................................................................................................... 26 Unemployment ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 Economic Growth................................................................................................................................................... 27 Industrial Changes ................................................................................................................................................... 27 Location Quotient and other Industry Markers ................................................................................................. 28 Workforce Trends ................................................................................................................................................... 30 Chapter III – The Public School Environment .......................................................................................... 35 Public School/District Trend and Profiles .............................................................................................................. 35 High School Senior Enrollment ............................................................................................................................ 35 High School Freshman Enrollment...................................................................................................................... 36 Intent of High School Seniors ............................................................................................................................... 38 English Learning ...................................................................................................................................................... 40 Higher Education Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 41 Colleges and Universities in Massachusetts ......................................................................................................... 41 For Profit Institutions ............................................................................................................................................. 43 Middlesex County Community College Enrollments-HEIRS II Data ........................................................... 43 University of Massachusetts Lowell-HEIRS II Data ......................................................................................... 46 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................ 49 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................... 51 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 53 MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Middlesex County Towns and Cities by Population, 2012.................................................................. 6 Table 2. County Population Changes ........................................................................................................................ 8 Table 3. Middlesex County Projections .................................................................................................................... 9 Table 4. Regional Domestic Resident Changes ................................................................................................... 10 Table 5. Population Changes due to Immigration .............................................................................................. 11 Table 6. Population Projections of MCC Feeder Towns ................................................................................... 12 Table 7. Middlesex County Population Projections by Age ............................................................................. 14 Table 8. Dependency Ratio in 2012 .......................................................................................................................... 15 Table 9. Population Projections by Top Feeder Towns for Residents Age 20-24 .....................................