The Development of the European Security and Defence Policy – An Assessment of Preferences, Bargains and Outcomes PÅL JONSON FOI is an assignment-based authority under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology develop- ment, as well as studies for the use of defence and security. The organization employs around 1350 people of whom around 950 are researchers. This makes FOI the largest research institute in Sweden. FOI provides its customers with leading expertise in a large number of fields such as security-policy studies and analyses in defence and security, assessment of different types of threats, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT-security an the potential of new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--1967--SE Scientific report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 ISSN 1650-1942 February 2006 SE-164 90 Stockholm Pål Jonson The Development of the European Security and Defence Policy – An Assessment of Preferences, Bargains and Outcomes Issuing organization Report number, ISRN Report type FOI – Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI-R--1967--SE Scientific report Defence Analysis Research area code SE-164 90 Stockholm 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analyses Month year Project no. February 2006 A 1103 Sub area code 11 Policy Support to the Government (Defence) Sub area code 2 Author/s (editor/s) Project manager Pål Jonson Approved by Jan-Erik Rendahl Sponsoring agency FOI Scientifically and technically responsible Prof. Anthony Forster and Dr Klaus Goetz Report title The Development of the European Security and Defence Policy – An Assessment of Preferences, Bargains and Outcomes Abstract This study assesses the development of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) between 1998 and 2001. It argues that the key fault-lines of the negotiation process for the ESDP rested on three core issues. Firstly, the dichotomy between Atlanticist and Europeanist preferences; secondly, the shifting preferences for the balance between military and civilian crisis management tools and thirdly (to a lesser extent) the shifting preferences between intergovernmental and federal approaches to the implementation of the ESDP. The study, furthermore, test the validity of the theoretical framework Liberal Intergovernmentalism (LI) in reference to the ESDP process. It cast doubts on LI’s core assumptions of ‘unitary actor behaviour’ and ‘rationality’ since they underestimates factors such as historical points of reference, norms and values. The empirical findings indicate that these factors seem decisively, albeit not exclusively, have influenced the preferences in the field of European security and defence co-operation. Keywords European Union, NATO, European Security and Defence Policy, Integration, Negotiations, Liberal Intergovernmentalism. Further bibliographic information Language English ISSN 1650-1942 Pages 275 p. Price acc. to pricelist 2 Utgivare Rapportnummer, ISRN Klassificering FOI - Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut FOI-R--1967--SE Vetenskaplig rapport Försvarsanalys Forskningsområde 164 90 Stockholm 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Månad, år Projektnummer Februari 2006 A 1103 Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Delområde 2 Författare/redaktör Projektledare Pål Jonson Godkänd av Jan-Erik Rendahl Uppdragsgivare/kundbeteckning FOI Tekniskt och/eller vetenskapligt ansvarig Anthony Forester och Klaus Goetz Rapportens titel The Development of the European Security and Defence Policy – An Assessment of Preferences, Bargains and Outcomes Sammanfattning Studien analyserar utvecklingen av den europeiska säkerhets och försvarspolitiken (EFSP) mellan 1998 och 2001. Konfliktytorna i förhandlingarna om EFSP kretsade kring i allt väsentligt kring tre kärnfrågor. För det första skiljelinjerna mellan atlantistiska och Europacentrerade preferenser; för det andra avvägningen i balansen mellan militära och civila krishanteringsinstrument; för det tredje stödjet för mellanstatliga respektive överstatliga beslutsfattningsstrukturer för EFSP. Studien prövar även det teoretiska ramverket Liberal Intergovernmentalism (LI) förmåga att beskriva förhandlingsprocessen för EFSP. Framförallt ifrågasätter studien validiteten i LI grundantaganden unitary actor behaviour och rationality. De empiriska analyserna pekar på att dessa faktorer underskattar den vikt som historiska referenspunkter, normer och värderingar tenderar att spela när medlemsstaterna utvecklar sina preferenser för säkerhets och försvarspolitiskt samarbete. Nyckelord Europeiska unionen, NATO, europeisk säkerhets och försvarspolitik, integration, förhandlingar, Liberal Intergovernmentalism. Övriga bibliografiska uppgifter Språk Engelska ISSN 1650-1942 Antal sidor: 275 s. Distribution enligt missiv Pris: Enligt prislista 3 Cover picture: © www.Scanpix.se 4 ABSTRACT This study assesses the development of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) from an empirical and theoretical perspective. The empirical aim of this study is to analyse and trace the evolution of the ESDP process from its emergence in 1998 to the declaration of its partial operational readiness in December 2001. More specifically, the objective is to provide an understanding of the main characteristics of the process and identify the sources of diverging preferences between the state governments within the negotiation process for the ESDP. The study argues that the key fault-lines of the negotiation process for the ESDP rested on three core issues. Firstly, the dichotomy between Atlanticist and Europeanist preferences; secondly, the shifting preferences for the balance between military and civilian crisis management tools and thirdly (to a lesser extent) the shifting preferences between intergovernmental and federal approaches to the implementation of the ESDP. Subsequently, the study tests if the hypotheses of the theoretical framework ‘Liberal Intergovernmentalism’ can accurately explain how the state governments formulated their preferences and bargained during the ESDP negotiations and if the outcome of the negotiations corresponded to Liberal Intergovernmentalism’s prediction in this regard. Secondly, the study, on a more profound basis, elaborates on the core assumptions of ‘unitary actor behaviour’ and ‘rationality’ that are at the heart of Liberal Intergovernmentalism. It concludes by providing some factors that point to the explanatory limits of these assumptions since they ignore or pay minimum attention to aspects, such as historical points of reference, norms and values, which occasionally seem to decisively, albeit not exclusively, have influenced the preferences in the field of security and defence co-operation. The conclusion is drawn that the dynamics for the ESDP process is too multifaceted to be explained by the narrow national interest based rational choice paradigm of Liberal Intergovernmentalism. 1 Contents CONTENTS ABSTRACT 1 CONTENTS 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 6 ABBREVIATIONS 8 CHAPTER ONE 11 1. INTRODUCTION 11 Aims and Questions of the Study 12 Key Definitions 14 Relevance 15 Methodology and Structure 21 Sources 24 Chapter Outlines 26 CHAPTER TWO 28 2. THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES ON EUROPEAN INTEGRATION 28 Introduction 28 Neorealism 29 International Liberalism 30 International Relations Theories in Reference to European Integration 31 European Integration Theories 32 Neofunctionalism 33 Intergovernmentalism 35 New Theoretical Approaches 37 Core Assumptions and Key Hypotheses of Liberal Intergovernmentalism 42 2 Contents Core Assumptions of LI 43 Rational Unitary Actor Behaviour 43 State-Centrism 44 Structure and Key Hypotheses of LI 45 Preference Formation 46 The Interstate Bargaining Process 47 The Institutional Choice Process 50 Criticism of LI 54 CHAPTER THREE 60 3. THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS: THE EVOLUTION OF THE ESDP - PRESIDENCY BY PRESIDENCY 60 Introduction 60 Institutional Ramifications 62 The Austrian Presidency, July-December 1998 64 The First Informal EU Defence Ministers’ Meeting 64 The St Malo Summit 66 The European Council Summit in Vienna 68 The German Presidency, January-June 1999 71 The Eltville Meeting 72 Getting the Non-Aligned Onboard 76 The Kosovo Operation 78 The Washington Summit 79 The EU Council Summit in Cologne 79 The Finnish Presidency, June-December 1999 84 The WEU’s Audit of Assets and Capabilities 86 The Franco-British Summit in London 87 Dual Roles for the High Representative 88 The European Council Summit in Helsinki 88 The Portuguese Presidency, January- June 2000 96 The Toolbox and Food for Thought Papers 97 Developing the Civilian Dimension 102 The European Council Summit in Feria 104 The French Presidency, July-December 2000 109 First Ever PSC-NAC Meeting 111 The Capabilities Commitment Conference 112 Impetus From the European Parliament 116 The European Council Summit in Nice 116 The Swedish Presidency, January-June 2001 122 Advancing Civilian Crisis Management 123 The FYROM Crisis 124 3 Contents Further Impetus for Military Crisis Management 125 European Council Summit in Göteborg 126 The Belgian Presidency, July-December 2001 129 The Impact of 11 September 2001 130 The EU Action Plan 131 11 September 2001 and the ESDP Process 132 European Capability Action Plan 134 The European Council Summit in Laeken 134 Conclusions 137 CHAPTER FOUR 148 4. PREFERENCES WITHIN THE ESDP PROCESS 148 Introduction 148 The Essence of the Preferences 151 The United Kingdom’s Main Positions on the ESDP