COUNTRY REPORT Philippines At a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW The Senate trial of President Estrada is likely to finish in mid-February. A guilty verdict on any of the charges would result in his removal from office, putting the vice-president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, in his place. However, acquittal remains a distinct possibility and would lead to a prolonged period of political uncertainty. The political situation has already undermined the privatisation programme, and the outlook for the government’s fiscal position is not good. GDP is forecast to slow from an estimated 3.6% in 2000 to 2.6% in 2001 and 2.9% in 2002. Consumer price inflation has already started to accelerate, and will average 6.3% in 2001. A steady decline in the merchandise-trade surplus will bring the current-account surplus down to US$7.6bn in 2001 and US$5.9bn in 2002. The exchange rate will average PhP50.50:US$1 in 2001 and PhP51.75:US$1 in 2002. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Senators trying President Estrada have heard detailed allegations of secret bank accounts. Some suspect that a group in the security forces was behind the spate of bombings in Metropolitan Manila on December 30th. Economic policy outlook • The budget deficit in 2000 seems likely to have been double the original target, and the 2001 target has been reset. The Napocor privatisation has been put back further. Economic forecast • As a result of stronger than expected GDP growth in the third quarter of last year the EIU has revised upwards its 2000 growth estimate to 3.6%. But we now expect growth of just 2.6% in 2001, compared with a previous forecast of 3.1%. January 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at http://store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 New York: Dante Cantu Tel: (1.212) 554 0643 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 Hong Kong: Amy Ha Tel: (852) 2802 7288/2585 3888 Fax: (852) 2802 7720/7638 Copyright © 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-428X Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Philippines 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2001-02 7 Political outlook 9 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 15 The political scene 19 Economic policy 22 The domestic economy 22 Economic trends 26 Manufacturing 27 Services 28 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 Forecast summary 11 International assumptions summary 20 Budget performance 22 Gross domestic product and gross national product 23 Gross domestic product by expenditure 24 Gross domestic product by origin 25 Consumer prices 26 Exchange rate 26 Manufacturing production 29 Foreign trade 29 Exports of electronics and components 31 Balance of payments EIU Country Report January 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 2 Philippines List of figures 14 Gross domestic product 14 Philippine peso real exchange rate 22 GDP growth 24 Consumer price inflation EIU Country Report January 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 Philippines 3 Summary January 2001 Outlook for 2001-02 The continuing political crisis is overshadowing prospects for economic growth. The president could be forced to stand down as early as February, but acquittal still remains a possibility. In this situation investment confidence will remain at rock bottom and the economic reform process will remain on hold. With demand growth in the US slowing sharply, the rate of GDP growth will slip below the 3% level in 2001-02. Inflation will initially continue at the higher rate registered at the end of 2000 but gradually ease down as oil prices fall and domestic demand growth remains subdued. Slower export growth will pull down the current-account surplus. The political scene The president, Joseph Estrada, stands accused of receiving payoffs from illegal gambling. With intensifying demands that the president resign, or be convicted, leading figures—including the vice president—have distanced themselves from the administration. A House of Representatives, nominally dominated by the pro-government coalition, nevertheless voted through the articles of impeachment. The trial in the Senate has revealed evidence directly implicating the president. Tension rose further after a wave of bombs in the capital on December 30th. Economic policy The budget deficit in 2000 will have been double the original target agreed with the IMF, owing to very poor internal tax revenues and low privatisation proceeds. The target for 2001 has already been revised upwards by almost one- half. The government has sold equity in a fertiliser company, but other sell-offs have failed. The Senate has shelved the bill to privatise the power utility because of the political turmoil. The domestic economy GDP growth continued to accelerate in the third quarter of 2000, to 4.8%, as exports increased and investment picked up. The agricultural recovery continued and manufacturing expansion maintained momentum. Inflation rose sharply in the final months of 2000 but the average for the year remained low at 4.3%. Interest rates have recently eased as the peso has stabilised. Manufacturing output growth accelerated through to October, but the trend will not be maintained into 2001. A massive rescue package has been extended by the central bank to save the Philippine National Bank. Foreign trade and The surplus on foreign trade has continued to rise, approaching US$5bn at the payments end of October last year. Exports registered the expected year-on-year fall in September and October, but growth in January-November reached 7.7%. Import spending was up only 1.5% in January-October. The current account remained in substantial surplus, but not by enough to prevent overall payments going into the red by end-September. International reserves have weakened from their August 2000 peak. Editors: Sophie Lewisohn (editor); Graham Richardson (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: January 1st 2001 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report January 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 4 Philippines Political structure Official name Republic of the Philippines Form of government Under the 1987 constitution, government is based on separation of powers between the executive presidency, bicameral legislature and independent judiciary The executive President is chief executive, head of state and commander-in-chief; serves no more than one six-year term; may approve bills passed by Congress or may exercise veto, which can be overridden only by two-thirds majority of Congress; cabinet appointments are subject to approval by Congressional Commission on Appointments Legislature Congress of the Philippines consisting of the Senate (24 members) and the House of Representatives (208 directly elected members and, since July 1998, up to 52 selected by party list); senators elected for six-year terms; representatives for three-year terms Legal system Based on common law; 1987 constitution contains a Bill of Rights and prescribes a judiciary with the Supreme Court at apex National elections May 11th 1998 (presidential, House of Representatives and half of the Senate); next election due May 2001 (mid-term congressional) National government Joseph Estrada became president on June 30th 1998 Main political organisations Laban