UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Committing to the Party: The Costs of Governance in East Asian Democracies A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science and International Affairs by Kuniaki Nemoto Committee in charge: Professor Ellis Krauss, Chair Professor Stephan Haggard, Co-Chair Professor Megumi Naoi Professor Matthew Shugart Professor Carlos Waisman 2009 Copyright Kuniaki Nemoto, 2009 All rights reserved SIGNATURE PAGE The Dissertation of Kuniaki Nemoto is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Chair University of California, San Diego 2009 iii DEDICATION To Nemoto Norikuni and Nemoto Tokiko iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ................................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION ............................................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................ v LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... xii VITA .............................................................................................................................................. xv ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. xvi Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Definitional Issues ............................................................................................................ 10 1.3. Japan and Korea ................................................................................................................ 14 1.4. Plan of the Dissertation .................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 2. Committing to the Party: A Model of Party Discipline ...................................... 29 2.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 29 2.2. Leaders, Backbenchers, and Their Interactions ............................................................ 32 2.3. Implications and How to Test Them ............................................................................. 52 2.4. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 60 Chapter 3. Quest for Power: Party (Un)development in Japan and South Korea .............. 63 3.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 63 3.2. Parties without Organization .......................................................................................... 69 3.3. Personalistic Electoral Competition ............................................................................... 80 v 3.4. Ideological Diversity ......................................................................................................... 98 3.5. Factional Struggles and Quest for Power .................................................................... 124 3.6. Quest for Power .............................................................................................................. 135 3.7. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 151 Chapter 4. Party Discipline and Policy Dissension in Japan ................................................ 153 4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 153 4.2. Theory .............................................................................................................................. 155 4.3. The Japanese Context .................................................................................................... 165 4.4. Data and Analysis ........................................................................................................... 174 4.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 197 Chapter 5. Party Discipline and Policy Dissension in Korea ............................................... 199 5.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 199 5.2. The Three Different Incentives .................................................................................... 202 5.3. Korean Context ............................................................................................................... 204 5.4. Empirical Analysis .......................................................................................................... 211 5.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 235 Chapter 6. Factional Politics and Budget Items in Japan ..................................................... 238 6.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 238 6.2. Evolution of Party Rules in the LDP .......................................................................... 240 6.3. Budget Making Process in Japan .................................................................................. 244 6.4. Hypotheses and Data ..................................................................................................... 250 6.5. Analysis and Discussion................................................................................................. 262 6.6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 266 vi Chapter 7. Distribution of Subsidies and Party Discipline in Korea ................................. 268 7.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 268 7.2. Presidential Factor in Distributive Game .................................................................... 271 7.3. Korean Context ............................................................................................................... 279 7.4. Data Analysis ................................................................................................................... 289 7.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 303 Chapter 8. Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 312 8.1. Summarizing the Findings ............................................................................................. 312 8.2. Research Ahead ............................................................................................................... 317 References ................................................................................................................................... 328 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: The LDP's Membership-to-Electorate (M/E) Ratio .......................................... 73 Figure 3.2: Japanese Parties' Fee-Paying Membership-to-Electorate (fpM/E) Ratios ....... 75 Figure 3.3: Korean Parties' Membership-to-Electorate (M/E) and Fee-Paying Membership-to-Electorate (fpM/E) Ratios .................................................................... 77 Figure 3.4: Answers to the question, "In deciding to cast a vote in this election, did you consider the party as more important, or the individual candidate as more important?" .......................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 3.5: Answers to the question, "In deciding to cast a vote in this election, which was the most important factor for you?" ......................................................................... 94 Figure 3.6: Independent Candidates in Japan .......................................................................... 97 Figure 3.7: Independent Candidates in South Korea .............................................................. 98 Figure 3.8: Ideological Positions of Japanese Diet Members, Kernel Density ................. 104 Figure 3.9: Ideological Positions of Korean National Assembly Members, Kernel Density ............................................................................................................................................. 107 Figure 3.10: Ideological Positions of Korean National Assembly Members, D-NOMINATE ...............................................................................................................