Doing More and Expecting Less: The Future of US Alliances in the Asia Pacific Edited by Carl Baker and Brad Glosserman Issues & Insights Vol. 13 – No. 1 Honolulu, Hawaii January 2013 Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, the Pacific Forum CSIS (www.pacforum.org) operates as the autonomous Asia-Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic, business, and oceans policy issues through analysis and dialogue undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. Founded in 1975, it collaborates with a broad network of research institutes from around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating project findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and members of the public throughout the region. Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... v Chapter 1 US Alliances in the Asia Pacific: The Evolving Narrative........................................ 1 Chapter 2 Down Under and In Between: Australian Security Perspectives in the ‘Asian Century’ ........................................................................................................................ 16 Chapter 3 The US-Japan Alliance: Where from and Where to?............................................... 25 Chapter 4 The ROK-US Alliance: Past, Present, and Future .................................................... 41 Chapter 5 The US-Philippines Alliance: Meeting 21st Century Security Challenges .............. 55 Chapter 6 The US-Thailand Alliance: Perceptions, Realities, and the Way Forward ............ 67 Chapter 7 US Alliances in the Asia Pacific: Doing More and Expecting Less ......................... 79 About the Authors ........................................................................................................ 99 iii Acknowledgements This volume is the culmination of a Pacific Forum project to examine the state and future of the US alliances in the Asia Pacific, identify shared interests and concerns about their future, and develop policy recommendations on ways to adapt these alliances to a new security environment. Throughout the series of nine workshops with partner institutions in each allied country, we had many valuable and provocative discussions about the role of the alliances in the emerging security architecture in Asia. Especially rewarding were the often spirited debates about the changing role of the alliances in addressing emerging regional security concerns and the influence of a rising China. What we could not have anticipated early in the process was the dramatic changes that occurred in the region over the three-year period of the project. The contributions in this volume attempt to both summarize the broad outlines of the discussions while also synthesizing the conclusions with subsequent developments that have shaped the current security environment. The Pacific Forum CSIS wishes to thank the MacArthur Foundation for its generous support and guidance throughout the project. Co-sponsoring organizations for the individual workshops also deserve special mention as they were most generous with time and resources to help ensure success. These include the Kokoda Foundation in Australia, the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Japan, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in the Republic of Korea, the Yuchengco Center – De La Salle University and the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence, and Terrorism Research in the Philippines, and the National Defence Studies Institute in Thailand. We are also grateful to the many security specialists, in and out of government, in Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and the United States, who took time out of their busy schedules to join us in various locations around the region to help everyone gain a better understanding of the individual alliances, the prospects for greater collaboration among alliance partners, and the alternative approaches to maximizing the benefits of alliances for ensuring peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the governments, the co-sponsoring institutes, or the group of workshop participants as a whole. iv Executive Summary This volume examines the role of US alliances in the Asia Pacific, outlining their evolution and offering policy recommendations on how to adapt them to a changing regional security environment. To this end, a group of scholars and policymakers met at regular intervals over a three-year period to examine the alliances and the role they have played in shaping US engagement and the relationships among the alliance partners. While each alliance has its own history and each relationship has been shaped by events and circumstances, the system of bilateral alliances with the US has been a key part of the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region for the past half century. A close examination of the evolution of the alliances as a system (the “hub-and- spoke” model) since 1951 reveals several shifts in the rationale for maintaining the system. These changes are being driven by changing security perceptions, the increased role of multilateral organizations in promoting security cooperation, the broadening of the US alliance partnerships, the growing importance of other US security partners in the region, and the rise of Chinese influence in the region. Several common features emerge from these analyses. First, there is a growing expectation that the alliance partners will take on greater responsibility within the bilateral relationship, which challenges the fundamental asymmetry that has characterized each alliance. Second, there has been more collaboration on broader regional and global security issues. Third, there has been a tentative move away from the hub-and-spoke model to a more networked system. Fourth, China’s recent aggressiveness in asserting its territorial claims has led some alliance partners to seek reassurances from the US regarding its commitment to mutual defense. Changing power relations in the region have created tension within the alliance system. Concern over the way forward has been rekindled as each alliance partner has been forced to reflect on the value of its alliance. The chapters on individual alliances describe how alliance partners have embraced a broader role in pursuing common interests at the regional and global level, especially in South Korea and Australia. In Southeast Asia, the authors describe both sides of the growing influence of China – for Thailand it has reduced the importance of the alliance with the US; in the Philippines it has provided a new rationale for reinvigorating the alliance relationship. Since the end of the Cold War, alliance partners have at times struggled to find a common rationale for sustaining the alliance with the US. While Australia remains committed to its alliance with the US and continues to lead efforts to integrate the US into the multilateral architecture, recent debates over its long-term interests in the “Asian Century” have challenged long-held assumptions about the role of the US alliance in its security. Japan remains focused on military and defense cooperation rather than on broader security issues. More than any other US ally in Asia, South Korea has recognized the value of the alliance for promoting its interests in regional and global issues. Yet, that recognition has not translated into closer cooperation with Japan on regional security issues. The Philippines views itself as a strong supporter of the US engagement in Asia, but its primary interest is using the bilateral alliance to reinforce its own security agenda. Among the five allies, Thailand has been the most reluctant to acknowledge the influence of the alliance in shaping its security policies. Instead, the common impression is that v Thailand has maintained the alliance with the US to avoid creating difficulties with the US and sees little value in giving the alliance a more central role. There is a wide range of options available to the US and its partners as they contemplate ways to adapt the existing alliance system to the regional security environment. The most ambitious version of alliance integration would be a system similar to NATO. On the other end of the spectrum, the US could reduce its reliance on the alliances, allowing them to atrophy while reinforcing the importance of “coalitions of the willing” and other regional organizations. This would force its alliance partners to take a more autonomous security posture. An intermediate approach that could lead to stronger alliance integration is to establish trilateral or quadrilateral coordination mechanisms. Reducing military deployments to the region would likely lead to more reliance on ad hoc functional responses to crises and increase the importance of ASEAN-centered regional organizations as the basis for the regional security architecture. Lessons from this assessment provide important guidelines for thinking about regional engagement with Asia. Policy makers should lower expectations about what the system of alliances can deliver. The US must recognize that its influence has diminished as Asia has acquired its own economic