Umschlag Vordruck.pdf 18.03.2010 16:20:04 STUDY The Dynamics of Conflict in the Multiethnic Union of Myanmar PCIA - Country Conflict-Analysis Study TIMO KIVIMÄKI & PAUL PASCH C October 2009 M Y CM MY CY CMY K n Crucial developments are taking place in Burma / Myanmar’s political landscape. Generation change, the change of the nominal political system, and the recovery from a major natural disaster can lead to many directions. Some of these changes can possibly pave the way for violent societal disruptions. n As an external actor the international community may further add to political tensions through their intervening policies. For this reason it is very important that the international community assesses its impact on the agents and structure of conflict in Burma / Myanmar. n This study aims at mapping the opportunities and risks that various types of international aid interventions may have in the country. n The study utilizes and further develops the peace and conflict impact assessment methodology of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. THE DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT IN THE MULTIETHNIC UNION OF MYANMAR Table of Contents FOREWORD 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................. 11 PART I: CONFLICTS AND THEIR MAPPING ................................. 13 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 13 Background and Objectives ............................................................................................. 13 Elements of Conflict in FES PCIA Methodology................................................................ 14 Method for Assessing Conflict Sensitivity of Aid and Suggestions for Improvement ......... 16 Summary: Conducting the PCIA for Burma/Myanmar ...................................................... 18 PART II: THE CONFLICT MAP OF BURMA/MYANMAR .............. 21 Conflict in Burma/Myanmar ............................................................................................ 21 Mental Maps of Divisions and Agents ............................................................................. 23 Mental Maps: Conflict .................................................................................................... 37 Grievances and Incentives for Violence ............................................................................ 40 Existing Opportunities for Violence.................................................................................. 43 Paths to Conflict and Non-Violent Outcomes .................................................................. 44 PART III: AID AND CONFLICT ...................................................... 59 Conflict Prevention and Its Relationship to Other Motives of Aid ..................................... 59 Conflict Prevention and Its Linkages to Aid Assets and Instruments ................................. 61 Transforming Burma/Myanmar’s Antagonistic Agent Structure ........................................ 62 Dealing with Conflict-Prone Cleavages ............................................................................ 65 Transforming Conflict Attitudes that Make Conflict Resolution Difficult ........................... 69 Addressing Conflict Motives and Opportunities ............................................................... 71 PART IV: CONCLUSIONS ............................................................. 75 Context of Conflict-sensitive Aid ..................................................................................... 75 Main Recommendations ................................................................................................. 75 3 FRIEDRICH EbERT FOUNDATION ANNEX 1: LIST OF INTERIEWEES................................................ 78 Interviews and discussions with Union of Myanmar Government officials ........................ 78 Interviews with armed conflicting party organisations ..................................................... 79 People from ceasefire groups who have given information for the conflict mapping in interviews with the project team ........................................... 79 Interviews with anonymous informants ........................................................................... 79 Interviews with experts, activists, donors and development workers ................................ 80 ANNEX 2: INTERVIEW QUESTIONNAIRE ................................... 82 Instructions ..................................................................................................................... 82 Questions for ethnic informants ...................................................................................... 82 Questions to people involved in post-Nargis rescue ......................................................... 83 Questions for people who are part of the economic elite, but who did not participate in the post-Nargis rescue ..................................................... 84 Questions to Government officials .................................................................................. 84 ANNEX 3: KIO’S 19 POINTS PROPOSAL FOR CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS AND CLAUSES ....................... 85 ANNEX 4: RECCOMMENDATIONS FOR ENHANCED COOPERATION BETWEEN EU AND MYANMAR ....................... 88 ENDNOTES ................................................................................. 92 4 THE DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT IN THE MULTIETHNIC UNION OF MYANMAR FOREWORD In the past 10 to 15 years, civil peace building, on the international community (cost of military conflict management and crisis prevention have operations, reconstruction aid, etc.). become important aspects of international rela- International development cooperation plays a tions around development cooperation and have key role in civil peace building, as it is a challenge taken root as goals for political action. Although which requires a coherent, holistic and interdisci- the basic idea that development cooperation al- plinary approach. The aim is to address the causes ways seeks to be a policy for peace is by no means of conflict, support structural stability, promote new, what is new is its attempt to contribute di- state and non-state peace actors through social rectly to peaceful development in conflict situa- and political programmes, and con-tribute to a tions. This concern is no longer just an overriding, sustainable peace in post-conflict societies, e.g. ab-stract goal: it should be reflected in specific through reconciliation work. strategies and measures, and the conflict impact of aid is now open to assessment in much the same The commitment to conflict sensitivity in all of- way as the environmental impacts. The issue of ficial development activities, for example by the civil peace building acquired a new dimension German Ministry of Economic Development and with the terrorist attacks in the United States on Cooperation (BMZ) and the British Department 11 September 2001; the debate on crisis prevention for International Development (DFID), shows that and conflict management may provide substan- peace building has now become a priority cross- tive input in this context. cutting theme in development cooperation. Non- government actors are equally committed to pro- Civil peace building comprises all non-military active development-oriented peace work and are measures adopted before, during or after a violent engaging in partnership with official development conflict. Its purpose is peaceful conflict transfor- agencies in order to contribute to peaceful conflict mation and/or the promotion and establishment transformation at various levels of society. of structures and mechanisms for non-violent conflict management. Peace cannot be created at Since the mid-1990s a number of bi- and multilat- the highest political level alone; rather, the whole eral donors (Germany, United Kingdom, Norway, of society – industry and business, academia and the World Bank among others) and the OECD’s education, faith-based communities, the media Development Assistance Committee (DAC) have and local NGOs (multi-track diplomacy) – must carried out country and project studies to deter- be involved in the peace process. Moreover, peace mine what influence development cooperation building is always an intra-societal process which has on conflict situations. Past experience can be external actors can at best support but cannot im- summarised as follows: ple-ment. Promoting local peace actors and peace • Relative influence of development cooperation: constituencies is therefore especially important in Expectations of what development cooperation facilitating the peace building process. can achieve should not be pitched too high. The From the 30 to 50 violent conflicts a year between, responsibility for preventing or ending con- but mostly within, countries it is clear how nec- flicts rests mainly with the parties concerned. essary it is to find constructive ways of resolving In most cases, development cooperation will be conflicts. Many countries also find themselves in unable to prevent or end violent conflicts on its a grey area between war and peace, in which the own. It may, on the other hand, tip the balance Government is undergoing a process of insidious between civil and violent forms of conflict. or overt disintegration. Violent disputes are of- • Development cooperation is not neutral in con- ten the core problem. Besides causing enormous flicts: Development cooperation exerts an in- human suffering,