PREDICTORS OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN NEW DEMOCRACIES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY Elnari Potgieter Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at the Stellenbosch University Supervisor : Prof P.V.D.P. du Toit Co-Supervisor: Dr C.L. Steenekamp Department of Political Science Stellenbosch University December 2013 Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za DECLARATION By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the authorship owner thereof (unless to the extent explicitly otherwise stated) and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Signed: E. Potgieter Date: 20 November 2013 Copyright © 2013 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za ABSTRACT Comparative studies investigating predictors of political participation in new democracies are rare. This study addresses an identified gap in the literature on predictors of political participation in new democracies in order to build on the rich body of literature concerned with political participation and democratic consolidation which already exists, but also to contribute towards understanding the role of citizens and their decisions pertaining to political participation in new democracies. In order to address the identified gap, this cross-national comparative study uses World Values Survey (2006) data for Chile, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea as part of a cross-sectional secondary analysis aimed at ascertaining what predictors of political participation can be identified for these new democracies. Drawing primarily from studies by Shin (1999) and Dalton (2008) which used the Civic Voluntarism Model by Verba, Schlozman and Brady (1995) as theoretical framework, predictors of political participation considered in this study include: personal resources (level of education and self-reported social class), political engagement and motivation (political interest and left- right political ideology), group membership and networks, as well as demographic attributes (age, gender and size of town). Forms of political participation investigated include: voting as conventional form of participation; and boycotts, petitions and demonstrations as forms of political protest behaviour. The relationships between the possible predictors of participation and forms of political participation were determined by multiple regression analysis. The main findings by this study are that political interest is an important predictor of voting and political protest behaviour; age is a strong predictor of voting; and group membership has a greater impact on political protest behaviour than on voting. ii Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za OPSOMMING Vergelykende studies wat ondersoek instel na voorspellende faktore van deelname aan politieke aktiwiteite in jong demokrasieë, is skaars. Deur indikatore van politieke deelname in nuwe demokrasieë na te vors, spreek hierdie studie dus die geïdentifiseerde gaping in die literatuur aan en brei dit uit op die korpus tekste aangaande politieke deelname en demokratiese konsolidasie. Verder bevorder dit ook ’n beter begrip van landsburgers en hul besluite rakende politieke deelname in jong demokrasieë. Ten einde die aangeduide literatuurgaping te oorbrug, steun hierdie verglykende studie op data van die “World Values Survey” (2006) vir Chili, Pole, Suid-Afrika en Suid-Korea. Dit vorm deel van ’n sekondêre analise om individuele eienskappe as voorspellers van deelname aan politieke aktiwiteite in nuwe demokrasieë, te identifiseer. Studies deur Shin (1999) en Dalton (2008), wat gebruik maak van Verba, Schlozman en Brady (1995) se “Civic Voluntarism Model”, dien as primêre teoretiese begronding. Daaruit word afgelei dat moontlike voorspellers van deelname aan politieke aktiwiteite gelys kan word as: persoonlike hulpbronne (vlak van opvoeding en self-geidentifiseerde sosiale klas); politieke betrokkenheid en motivering (belangstelling in politiek en politieke ideologie); groeplidmaatskap en –netwerke asook demografiese eienskappe (ouderdom, geslag en grootte van dorp). Die vorme van politieke aktiwiteite waaraan daar aandag gegee word, is eerstens stemgedrag tydens nasionale verkiesings as konvensionele vorm van politieke deelname en tweedens biokotte, petisies en demonstrasies as vorme van politieke protesgedrag. Die hoof bevindinge van hierdie studie is dat politieke belangstelling ‘n belangrike voorspeller is vir stemgedrag en politieke protesgedrag; ouderdom is ‘n sterk voorspeller vir deelname aan verkiesings en groeplidmaatskap het ‘n groter invloed op politieke protesgedrag as op die keuse om te stem. iii Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude towards everyone that has supported me during the writing of this thesis. Firstly, to my family – in particular my mother, Ilza Potgieter, and my grandparents, Carl and Elna Hugo. Their consistent support (despite adversities) inspires me to reach and work for every dream and goal. Secondly, to the numerous mentors who helped me with their wisdom and experience – in particular Prof Hans Müller whose wise words have guided me through various tough career and study decisions. Thirdly, to Professor Du Toit, my patient supervisor, who has motivated and guided my work despite illness, I extend my profound gratitude. Also, to Dr. Steenekamp, who assisted me in particularly with the statistical aspects of my research. Fourthly, to Professor Anthony Leysens, Tannie Magda and the rest of the Political Science Department for taking such an interest in my work and allowing me to represent the Department at the South African Association of Political Science Conference in 2012. Fifthly, to my friends who supported me throughout the completion of my thesis, in particular Genevieve Stander, Anton Botha and Naadirah Grimsel. Next, I would also like to express the deepest appreciation to the Mandela Rhodes Foundation and the staff working for this foundation – not only for providing me with the funding to complete this degree, but the vested interest they take in my development as a young African leader. Last but not least, I would like to assert my most humble gratitude to the Lord for giving me the strength, courage and ability to complete this thesis. iv Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration i Abstract ii Opsomming iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Tables vii List of Diagrams vii List of Abbreviations viii Chapter 1: Introduction and Outline 1 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. Background to the study: Linking democratic consolidation and political participation 1 1.3. Research problem and research question 5 1.4. Research methodology 8 1.5. Limitations and delimitations of the study 10 1.6. Rationale and significance 12 1.7. Chapter outline 14 Chapter 2: A Literature Review 16 2.1. Introduction 16 2.2. Political participation 17 2.2.1. The development of the study of political participation as part of the study of democratic political culture 18 2.2.2. Forms of political participation 23 2.3. Perspectives on factors that motivate political participation 25 2.4. Combining two recent studies on predictors of political participation 36 2.5. Summary 38 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology 40 3.1. Introduction 40 3.2. Research design and methodology 40 3.2.1. A comparative analysis of four new democracies 40 3.2.2. Secondary data analysis 47 3.3. Description of datasets 49 3.3.1. World Value Survey (WVS) 49 3.3.2. Sample size and method 49 3.4. Political participation as dependent variable 51 3.4.1. Voting 52 3.4.2. Forms of political protest 53 3.5. Summary 54 Chapter 4: Analyses and Findings 55 4.1. Introduction 55 4.2. Political participation 55 4.2.1. Voting 55 4.2.2. Political protest behaviour 57 4.3. Predictors of political participation 58 4.3.1. Personal resources 59 4.3.1.1. Level of education 60 4.3.1.2. Self-reported social class 62 v Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za 4.3.2. Political engagement and motivation 64 4.3.2.1. Left-right political ideology 65 4.3.2.2. Political interest 66 4.3.3.Group membership and networks 67 4.3.4. Demographics 71 4.3.4.1. Age 71 4.3.4.2. Gender 72 4.3.4.3. Size of Town/community/area 73 4.4. Multiple regression 74 4.4.1. Predictors of voting 76 4.4.2. Predictors of political protest behaviour 78 4.4.3. Interpretation of Findings 80 4.4.3.1. Model 1: Personal resources 80 4.4.3.2. Model 2: Political Motivation and engagement 85 4.4.3.3. Model 3: Group membership and networks 86 4.4.3.4. Model 4: Demographic characteristics 90 4.4.3.5. Predictive power of the independent variables 91 4.5. Summary 94 Chapter 5: Conclusion 96 5.1. Introduction 96 5.2. Democratisation and political participation 96 5.3. Predictors of political participation 97 5.4. Methodological aspects 98 5.5. Findings, interpretations and suggestions for further studies 99 5.5.1. Personal resources 99 5.5.2. Political engagement and motivation 101 5.5.3. Group membership and networks 102 5.5.4. Demographic characteristics 104 5.5.5. General 105 5.6. Conclusion 106 Bibliography 107 Appendix 120 vi Stellenbosch University http://scholar.sun.ac.za LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: An overview of political society in the four selected countries 42 Table 3.2: Material and post-material as most important values, by country 44 Table 3.3: General