1 8 Famine losses in Ukraine in 1932 2 3 to 1933 within the context of the 4 Soviet Union 5 6 7 Omelian Rudnytskyi, Nataliia Levchuk, 8 Oleh Wolowyna and Pavlo Shevchuk 9 10 11 12 Introduction 13 14 Although the 1932/1933 famine in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) 15 was one of the largest European catastrophes of the twentieth century, its magni- 16 tude is still not widely known.1 For many years, the Soviet government tried to 17 minimise its scope and blame it on natural causes. The famine’s occurrence and its 18 man- made nature are now generally accepted facts. However, one issue still in 19 dispute is the level of population losses due to the famine experienced in different 20 regions of the Soviet Union. This is especially the case for Ukraine, where estim- 21 ates of excess famine deaths vary between 2.6 and 5.0 million.2 To illustrate the 22 difficulty of the task, the estimates of one researcher, Maksudov, have varied from 23 one attempt to the next: 4.4 million and then 3.6 million.3 24 One reason for these variations is the earlier limited access to relevant data, 25 forcing researchers to use methods based on assumptions that were difficult to 26 verify. Initial estimates were based on general demographic indicators and 27 historical documents, as well as on the demographic balance method.4 Once data 28 from the 1926, 1937 and 1939 Soviet censuses and the time series of vital statis- 29 tics and migration data became fully accessible, researchers were able to apply 30 the more effective population reconstruction method that allows for estimating 31 direct (excess deaths), indirect (lost births) and migration losses by year, sex and 32 age. Full population reconstructions were done by Andreev et al. for the Soviet 33 Union as a whole in 1920 to 1959 and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist 34 Republic in 1927 to 1958, and by Vallin et al. and Mesle et al. for the Ukrainian 35 Soviet Socialist Republic in 1927 to 1958.5 Another reason for variation in 36 estimates is the confounding effect of migration. If net migration for a republic 37 or region is measured incorrectly, the population change attributed to excess 38 deaths may be over- or underestimated. A third reason is that many of the offi- 39 cial statistics have serious data quality problems, and their use without relevant 40 adjustments is likely to introduce significant biases in the loss estimates. 41 The 1932/1933 famine affected different regions of the Soviet Union, and 42 previous research on famine losses focused mainly on the Soviet Union as a 43 whole and on specific republics: Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Up until now 44 no attempt has been made to estimate famine losses in all former Soviet 45 395 08 Famines 08.indd 192 13/2/15 09:58:50 Famine losses in Ukraine in 1932/1933 193 1 republics and evaluate losses in Ukraine in comparison to the other republics. 2 Our results are based on population reconstructions for all 11 former Soviet 3 republics and the Prydnistrovia (Transdnister) region, after the quality of all data 4 was carefully evaluated and relevant adjustments were made where needed. 5 6 Data 7 8 All the Soviet republics were analysed within their current international borders 9 and original data were recalculated to conform to these territorial definitions 10 because: (1) during the 1926 to 1939 intercensal period several Soviet republics 11 underwent significant border changes, and borders in 1926 are not consistent 12 with borders in 1939; (2) our reconstruction of Russia is based on the work of 13 Andreev et al. and they used Russia within its current borders; (3) this is consist- 14 ent with common statistical practice, where analysis of data from previous cen- 15 suses is made consistent with data from the latest census.6 16 Ukraine includes 17 of the current oblasts and the Autonomous Republic of 17 Crimea, as well as the seven western oblasts and the southwestern part of the 18 Odesa oblast that were not part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic 19 (UkrSSR) during the 1927 to 1938 period. Also excluded from Ukraine is the 20 region of Prydnistrovia, which belonged to the UkrSSR in 1924 to 1940 and 21 became part of Moldova in 1940. Belarus is analysed within its 17 September 22 1939 borders; that is, without western Belarus. Russia is defined as it existed 23 within its 1939 borders, excluding Crimea, and all the other republics are ana- 24 lysed within their current borders. In order to simplify the presentation of results 25 for 11 republics and one region, the seven Asian republics are aggregated into 26 two regions: Transcaucasus (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan) and Central Asia 27 (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan), as results for the repub- 28 lics in each of these two regions are fairly similar. Thus, although analyses were 29 performed for each individual republic, the results are presented for the USSR as 30 a whole, and the seven regions of Russia, Ukraine, Prydnistrovia, Belarus, Kaza- 31 khstan, Central Asia and Transcaucasus. 32 One of the challenges for a comprehensive analysis of the USSR and its repub- 33 lics is the unevenness of available demographic data in terms of existence, com- 34 pleteness and quality. A detailed summary of birth, death and migration data 35 availability by country and region is presented in Table 8.1. The Soviet censuses of 36 1926 and 1939 provide the necessary population information by age, sex and ethni- 37 city, although they require adjustments (see below). Complete annual migration data 38 are available only for the urban populations of all republics. Vital statistics range 39 from very complete for Ukraine to very limited for Kazakhstan and Central Asia. In 40 the case of Ukraine, access was gained to the research manuscripts of the Ukrainian 41 demographer Yurii Korchak- Chepurkivskyi (archives of Korchak- Chepurkivskyi), 42 which allowed us to complete the time series of vital statistics for the 1930 to 1932 43 period, since the original data were destroyed.7 In order to take advantage of data 44 that were only available for urban and/or rural areas, all analysis was done by urban- 45 rural areas for each republic and then aggregated on the national level. 395 08 Famines 08.indd 193 13/2/15 09:58:50 395 08Famines 08.indd 194 Table 8.1 Summary of available Soviet birth, death and migration data, 1926 to 1939 Data USS Belarus Transcaucasus Kazakhstan Russia Central Asia Ukraine Births: Total Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Estimated totals Yearly1 1926–19283 Yearly1 1932–19334 1926–19283 1932–19333 By urban-rural Yearly1 Yearly1 1936–19391 1936–19401 Yearly1 1936–19381 Yearly1 By age of mother 1939 1939 1939 1939 1939 Yearly2 By nationalities 1926, 1939 1939 1939 1926, 1939 1939 Yearly By age of mother and nationalities 1939 1939 1939 1939 1939 1939 Yearly2 Births by month 1936–1939 Yearly 1936–1939 1936–1939 Yearly 1936–1939 Yearly By age of mother4 (indirect estimation) NA NA Yearly Yearly NA Yearly NA Deaths: Total Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Estimated totals Yearly1 19263 19283 Yearly1,3 1932–19333 1926–19283 1932–19333 By urban-rural Yearly1 Yearly1 1936–19391 1936–19391 Yearly1 1936–19391 Yearly By age and sex 1939 1926, 1939 1926, 1939 1939 1926, 1939 1939 Yearly2 By nationalities 1926, 1939 1939 1939 1926, 1939 1939 Yearly Deaths by month 1936–1939 Yearly 1936–39 1936–39 Yearly 1936–1939 Yearly Life tables: Calculated by authors and 1926–1927 1926–1927 1926–1927 1926–1927 1938–19395 1924–19317 (Europe part) (Europe part) different researchers 1938–1939 1927–396 1927–19388 1938–1939 Migration: Urban migration by origin: destination, Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly age-sex 13/2/15 09:58:50 Migration of special groups Yearly Yearly Yearly 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Famine losses in Ukraine in 1932/1933 195 1 Adjustment of census data 2 The 1926 and 1939 censuses have problems typical of most censuses at that 3 time, and the results of the 1939 census were also affected by deliberate falsifi- 4 cations by the Soviet government, which attempted to hide the effects of the 5 1932/1933 famine and political repressions in 1937/1938.8 Detailed adjustments 6 were made to correct these problems. 7 Adjustments of the 1926 census consisted of: (1) the redistribution of military 8 and border personnel to different republics (to align the de jure 1926 data with the 9 de facto 1939 census data); (2) adjustment for significant undercounting of women 10 aged eight to 27 in republics with large Muslim populations and of children aged 0 11 to two in all republics; (3) redistribution of persons with unknown age; and (4) 12 application of smoothing techniques to address serious digit preference problems. 13 These modifications increased the overall USSR population by 1.1 per cent, by less 14 than 1.0 per cent for the European republics and between 2.4 and 3.0 per cent for 15 Kazakhstan, Transcaucasus and Central Asia (Table 8.2). 16 The 1939 census was falsified in three major ways. First, individual records 17 of special populations – armed forces, secret police, prisoners in concentration 18 camps, civilian support populations in the camps – were reassigned during data 19 processing to other republics in order to hide their large concentrations in north- 20 ern and eastern Russia and Kazakhstan.