RAMSES PROJECT Grant Agreement n° 308497 WP 5: Development of a cost assessment framework for adaptation D5.1: Review of climate change losses and adaptation costs for case studies Reference code: RAMSES – D5.1 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement No. 308497 (Project RAMSES). RAMSES Project (Grant Agreement n° 308497) D5.1 Project Acronym : RAMSES Project Title : Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Contract Number : 308497 Title of report : D5.1: Review of climate change losses and adaptation costs for case studies Reference code : RAMSES – D5.1 Short Description : This report provides a review of climate change and adaptation costs for European cities, including a range of case studies and stakeholder surveys. Authors and co-authors: Graham Floater, Annabella Bujak, Gabrielle Hamill, Madeleine Lee Partners owning : LSE and SENECA Contributions : Floriana Ferrara, T6, Giuseppe Forino, T6, Gaell Mainguy, IVE Made available to : Public Versioning Version Date Name, organization 0.1 31/3/14 Graham Floater, London School of Economics Quality check Internal Reviewers: Jürgen Kropp, PIK; James Kallaos, NTNU - 2 - RAMSES Project (Grant Agreement n° 308497) D5.1 Table of contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 8 2 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 OBJECTIVES OF THIS REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 10 2.2 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE REVIEW .................................................................................. 11 2.3 CATEGORISING CLIMATE COSTS ................................................................................................... 12 3 FLOODING .................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1 DEFINITION OF FLOODING ............................................................................................................ 21 3.2 ECONOMIC COSTS OF FLOODING .................................................................................................. 21 3.3 DAMAGES BY SECTOR ................................................................................................................. 23 3.4 ADAPTATION COSTS .................................................................................................................... 26 4 STORMS ........................................................................................................................................ 28 4.1 DEFINITION OF STORMS ............................................................................................................... 28 4.2 ECONOMIC COSTS OF STORMS ..................................................................................................... 28 4.3 DAMAGES BY SECTOR ................................................................................................................. 29 4.4 ADAPTATION COSTS .................................................................................................................... 31 5 HEATWAVES ................................................................................................................................. 32 5.1 DEFINITION OF HEATWAVES .......................................................................................................... 32 5.2 ECONOMIC COSTS OF HEATWAVES ............................................................................................... 32 5.3 DAMAGES BY SECTOR ................................................................................................................. 34 5.4 ADAPTATION COSTS .................................................................................................................... 35 6 DROUGHT ..................................................................................................................................... 38 6.1 DEFINITION OF DROUGHT ............................................................................................................. 38 6.2 ECONOMIC COSTS OF DROUGHT .................................................................................................. 38 6.3 DAMAGES BY SECTOR ................................................................................................................. 39 6.4 ADAPTATION COSTS .................................................................................................................... 41 7 CLIMATE-RELATED COSTS IN CASE STUDY CITIES .............................................................. 42 7.1 LOSSES FROM EXTREME EVENTS AND ADAPTATION COSTS .............................................................. 42 7.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT: PERCEIVED COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CITIES ............................... 46 8 REVIEW OF CASE STUDY CITIES ............................................................................................... 49 8.1 LONDON .................................................................................................................................... 49 8.2 ANTWERP .................................................................................................................................. 57 8.3 BILBAO ...................................................................................................................................... 61 8.4 BOGOTA .................................................................................................................................... 67 8.5 HYDERABAD ............................................................................................................................... 75 8.6 NEW YORK CITY ......................................................................................................................... 78 8.7 RIO DE JANEIRO ......................................................................................................................... 87 9 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................ 93 9.1 CLIMATE THREATS IN CITIES ......................................................................................................... 93 9.2 CLIMATE LOSSES ........................................................................................................................ 93 9.3 ADAPTATION COSTS .................................................................................................................... 94 9.4 EVIDENCE FOR COSTS : GAP ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 95 9.5 LESSONS FOR RAMSES ............................................................................................................. 97 10 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 98 ANNEX I: CASE STUDY OF FLOODING IN GENOA, ITALY - 3 - RAMSES Project (Grant Agreement n° 308497) D5.1 List of Figures Figure 2.1: An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina. The curve shows indirect losses as a function of sectoral losses, for a disaster with the same sectoral structure of Hurricane Katrina. The equation in black is the polynomial regression of indirect losses to sectoral losses for this case study modelled. Source: reproduced from Hallegatte et al., 2011 using data from Hallegatte, 2008. ............................................... 14 ! Figure 2.2: Methodological roadmap for assessing economic impacts of climate change in cities. Source: reproduced from Hallegatte et al., 2011 p. 53. ...................... 18 ! Figure 2.3: Building and contents damage ratios for households with and without flood adapted use and measures (bars=means, points=medians and 25–75% percentiles). Source: reproduced from Kreibich et al., 2005 p. 124. .............................. 20 ! Figure 3.1: Fatalities and economic losses caused by flood disasters in Europe from 1970-2008. Source: reproduced from EEA, 2011. ......................................................... 22 ! Figure 4.1: Repair Storm or Wind Damage Costs. Source: reproduced from HomeAdvisor, 2014. ....................................................................................................... 30 ! Figure 6.1: Correlation between UK household buildings subsidence damage and drought (1988-2006) Legend: Subsidence damage measured in ₤2003 million. Data supplied by the ABI. Drought intensity measured in accumulated precipitation over the 18 months prior to September of the corresponding year (in mm). Source: reproduced from Logar and van den Bergh, 2011 using data from Dlugolecki, 2007. ............................................................................................................ 39! Figure 7.1a: Total costs for major extreme weather events in Europe, 1998-2009. Source: EEA, 2011. ......................................................................................................... 43 ! Figure 7.1b: Total fatalities for major extreme weather events in Europe, 1998-2009. Source EEA, 2011. .........................................................................................................