The Study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries Chapter 2 Current Status and Issues of Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries 2-1 Current Status and Issues of Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries 2.1.1 Current Status and Issues of Afghanistan 2.1.1.1 Current Status and Issues of the Industry and the Economy (1) Outline Figure 2.1 shows the changes in the population in Afghanistan. It remained flat at about 12-13 million to 1990 but increased remarkably after 1990, and the population as of 2008 increased to twice as much as that in 1990 or increased to about 27 million. Dollar-denominated per capita GDP1 increased up to 1990 and then downwarded in 1990s and rebounded in the 2000s. The decrease in per capita GDP in the 1990s is considered to result from a downturn in the economy as well as the rapid increase in population. ―: Population (10,000 persons) ―: Per-Capita GDP (US dollars) 3,000 500 人口（万人） 450 2,500 一人当たりＧＤＰ（米ドル） 400 350 2,000 300 1,500 250 200 1,000 150 100 500 50 ‐ ‐ http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp Figure 2.1 Population and Per-Capita GDP in Afghanistan (left axis: population, right axis: Per-Capita GDP) The population in Afghanistan is dispersed. The population density is relatively high in the southeast, mainly in Kabul, and in the north in Mazar-e-Sharif but low in the southwest especially in the Balochistan area. 1 Current price 2 - 1 The study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries Afghanistan; Cross Border Trade and Transport Facilitation (from Columbia University, Socioeconomic Data and Application Center) Figure 2.2 Population Distribution in Afghanistan (persons/km2) Figure 2.3 is the GDP distribution by industry indicated in the UN statistics2.When the Soviet Union troops retreated in 1987 (withdrawal completed in 1989), the Afghan economy began to drop, and severely dropped in the anarchy after collapse of the Najibullah regime. From 1994 when the Taliban emerged (it gained effective control of most of the land in 1996), the downward trend continued with some upturns from the level of anarchy immediately after retreat of the Soviet Union troops. Full-fledged economic upturn occurred after the simultaneous terrorist attacks in September 11, 2001. The economy rapidly expanded between 2002 and 2007, but stagnated in 2008. Agriculture occupies a large share in the economy of Afghanistan. Up to the beginning of 1990, the share of agriculture in all industries was 50% and increased due to collapse of the other industries in the period of confusion. In and after 2000, the share of agriculture dropped due to growth of other industries. Agriculture still holds a large share of 1/3 of all industries as of 2008. 2 Local currency denominated 1990 prices by National Accounts main Aggregates database 2 - 2 The Study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries The Study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries 500 450500 400450 350400 他 300350 交通・通信他 250300 商業交通・通信 250 200 建設業商業 150200 鉱工業建設業 100150 農林水産業鉱工業 10050 農林水産業 50- - 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Legend: ■Other, 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 ■Other, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp Legend:■Construction ■Commerce ■Transport & Communication http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp ■Construction ■Commerce ■Transport & Communication ■Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery ■Mining & Manufacturing ■Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery ■Mining & Manufacturing Figure 2.3 GDP of Afghanistan and its Breakdown (prices in 1990, unit: million Afghani) Figure 2.3 GDP of Afghanistan and its Breakdown (prices in 1990, unit: million Afghani) (2) Status of industries (2) Status of industries Figure 2.4 and 2.5 shows the outline of the industries in Afghanistan. The nominal GDP in 2008 was Figure 2.4 and 2.5 shows the3 outline of the industries in Afghanistan. The nominal GDP in 2008 was about 10 billion US dollars and agriculture accounts for 1/3 of it. The share of manufacturing is as about 10 billion US dollars3 and agriculture accounts for 1/3 of it. The share of manufacturing is as low as about 17% and half of the remainder is service industry. The economy of Afghanistan low as about 17% and half of the remainder is service industry. The economy of Afghanistan additionally has a narcotic based economy segment of 3.4 billion dollars (Potential export basis. 730 additionally has a narcotic based economy segment 4 of 3.4 billion dollars (Potential export basis. 730 million dollars in agricultural shipment basis.) . As a result, Afghanistan is an agricultural country, million dollars in agricultural shipment basis.) 4. As a result, Afghanistan is an agricultural country, and half of the national economy is supported by agriculture and opium. and half of the national economy is supported by agriculture and opium. Chronologically, the nominal GDP doubled or more in the past five years, including the increment Chronologically, the nominal GDP doubled or more in the past five years, including the increment due to inflation, and in real terms 1.6 times or more, or about 10% per annum. (Recently, the due to inflation, and in real terms 1.6 times or more, or about 10% per annum. (Recently, the economy stagnated between 2007 and 2008.) economy stagnated between 2007 and 2008.) By expenditure, private consumption stood at 9,979 million dollars, government consumption at By expenditure, private consumption stood at 9,979 million dollars, government consumption at 1,078 million dollars, gross fixed assets at 3,111 million dollars, net export of goods and services at 1,078 million dollars, gross fixed assets at 3,111 million dollars, net export of goods and services at -3,997 million dollars (export of 1,748 million dollars and import of 5,755 million dollars), resulting -3,997 million dollars (export of 51,748 million dollars and import of 5,755 million dollars), resulting in 10,174 million dollars in total. 5 in 10,174 million dollars in total. 3 Purchasing power parity of 31,842 million dollars (ADB, Development Indicator 2009） 34 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2009 Summary Findings September 2009, UNODC,2009, ）Fact Sheet Afghanistan Opium Survey 2009 5 Purchasing power parity of 31,842 million dollars (ADB, Development Indicator 2009 4 KeyAfghanistan Indicators Opium for Asia Survey and 2009the Pacific Summary 2009 Findings Country SeptemberTable, ADB 2009, UNODC,2009, Fact Sheet Afghanistan Opium Survey 2009 5 Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009 Country Table, ADB 2 - 3 2 - 3 The study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries 12000 GDP by industrial origin d 10662 10170 at current market prices 10000 GDP by industrial origin GDP by industrial origin 8186 at 2002 market prices 8000 7317 7318 6852 6288 5733 5700 6000 4767 5170 4390 4390 4591 4000 2000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009 Country Table Figure 2.4 Current Status of Industry and Economy in Afghanistan (Unit: US$ million) 351, 3% 3261, 31% Agriculture 1136, 11% Mining,Manufacturing, Electricity, gas, and water 1013, 9% Construction Trade 1016, 10% Transport and communications Public administration Others 1177, 11% 1730, 16% Taxes less subsidies on 978, 9% production and imports Source: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009 Country Table Figure 2.5 Current Status of Industry and Economy in Afghanistan (Unit: US$ million) (3) Trade Figure 2.6 shows the changes in imports and exports of Afghanistan. In 2007, the exports stood at 321 million dollars and the imports at 4,721 million dollars. Imports to Afghanistan rapidly increased after collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001. 2 - 4 The Study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries The Study for Broader Area Transport Infrastructure Development in Afghanistan and the Surrounding Countries 5,000 4,721 4,500 Exports, total 4,000 Imports, total 3,818 3,500 3,000 3,007 2,500 2,000 1,973 1,500 1,608 1,000 1,034 688 661 500 604 621 566 479 443 398 465 391 462 490 387 275 321 131 189 181 166 145 151 142 210 185 238 ‐ 105 128 123 91 87 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008, ADB Figure 2.6 Imports and Exports in Afghanistan (Unit: million dollars) The trade indicated above is formal trade6. According to a report of the World Bank in 20057, in addition to the exports from Afghanistan as formally recorded in 2002, it was estimated that there were exports of about 1.2 billion dollars including export of narcotics8, smuggling and reexport, and import of 2.3 billion dollars in addition to formally recorded data of about 1.0 billion dollars. According to other material of the World Bank, it was estimated that the imports (including smuggling) of Afghanistan were 1,202 million dollars in 1999, 396 million of which is for domestic consumption and 806 million dollars of which involved possibility of re-export. It was estimated that the export stood at 1.277 billion dollars (including smuggling), 130 million of which was export of domestic products, and 1.097 billion dollars of which was re-export9. 6 Coverage of the DOT (Direction of Trade) and IFS (International Statistics) is limited to formal trade (Afghanistan’s Trade Environment from the Viewpoint of Relation with its Neighboring Countries (Rinsetukoku tono kankei kara mita Afghanistan no boueki kankyo), Maoka Onishi, IDE-JETRO, Japan Cooperation Center for the Middle East News, 2005, p60).