~ 1 ~ Master Thesis Human Geography · Michiel Dekker · University of Amsterdam UvA ID: 6146414 · [email protected] · Supervisor: Dr. Virginie Mamadouh · June 23, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………….……………………5 CHAPTER ONE 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Ukraine’s path to its territorial breakup .................................................................... 7 1.3 Research questions ................................................................................................ 11 1.4 Societal and academic relevance ............................................................................ 11 1.5 Structure of the thesis ............................................................................................ 11 CHAPTER TWO 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Geopolitics ............................................................................................................. 12 2.3 Borders and territoriality ........................................................................................ 12 2.4 Geopolitical imaginations ...................................................................................... 14 2.5 Nation building ...................................................................................................... 15 2.6 Core concepts ........................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER THREE 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Conceptual model .................................................................................................. 16 3.3 Operationalization of concepts .............................................................................. 17 3.3.1 Operationalization of factors contributing to geographical divisions ................ 17 3.3.2 Operationalization of attitudes towards the European Union and Russia ......... 17 3.3.2 Operationalization of individual, household and contextual characteristics ..... 18 3.4 Data ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.5 Dataset variables .................................................................................................... 22 3.5.1 Dependent variables ........................................................................................ 22 3.5.2 Independent variables ..................................................................................... 22 3.6 Descriptive analysis ................................................................................................ 23 ~ 2 ~ 3.7 Logistic regression analyses ................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER FOUR 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Historical legacy of the west .................................................................................. 25 4.3 Historical legacy of the east ................................................................................... 27 4.4 Nation building in post-Soviet Ukraine ................................................................... 29 4.5 The ‘myth’ of a divided Ukraine .............................................................................. 31 4.6 The importance of the region ................................................................................. 34 4.7 Russia and the ‘otherness’ of Ukrainians ................................................................. 37 4.7 Divisions in Ukraine and external forces ................................................................. 40 4.8 Conclusion and hypotheses .................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER FIVE 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 46 5.2 The direction in which Ukraine should develop ....................................................... 47 5.3 Ukrainian attitudes towards the West .................................................................... 50 5.4 Ukrainian attitudes towards the East ..................................................................... 52 5.4 Other characteristics of the Ukrainian population .................................................. 55 5.4.1 Economical preferences .................................................................................. 57 5.4.2 Political preferences ........................................................................................ 59 5.5 Explanation of the used analyses and interpretation .............................................. 70 5.6 Explanation of the independent variables .............................................................. 71 5.7 Binary logistic regression analyses .......................................................................... 73 5.8 Multinomial logistic regression analysis ................................................................. 80 5.9 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 83 CHAPTER SIX 6.0 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 83 References……………………………………………………………………………………………………..86 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………….92 ~ 3 ~ PREFACE This master thesis is the final product of my master’s programme in Human Geography of the University of Amsterdam, in which I hope to demonstrate the acquired research skills during the years of my study. The demonstrations in Ukraine in November last year immediately caught my attention, and before I knew it, I converted the events into the subject of my thesis. Writing a thesis while trying to stay up-to-date with the developments in the country has proven to be a challenge. Also, a change in methodology asked even more time than available which resulted in working seven days a week on the thesis. But these are sacrifices that I would make again, for the sake of writing about a topic that genuinely interests me, and a good part of society, according to the attention it gets in the media. My special thanks go to Virginie Mamadouh, for providing me with huge amounts of feedback, pushing me in the right direction when needed and a shared interest in the subject. I also have to thank Sjoerd de Vos, for helping me out with the statistical analyses. ~ 4 ~ ABSTRACT After the Second World War, the Eastern European region of the Ukraine was under direct influence by the Soviet Union, the cause of a period of deterritorialisation in the area. When the Cold War ended, the European area started to experience a phase of reterritorialisation, meaning that the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics led to the birth of new states, including Ukraine. Ukraine, a country squeezed in between Western Europe and Russia is a divided country, in terms of support for either closer ties with the west or east, and tensions are visible. This was demonstrated by violent events in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014, marking the end of the in office period of the pro-Russian president Yanukovych. This study was done to get a better understanding of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine. In this research, two research questions are formulated: “Which factors have contributed to the shaping of a divided Ukrainian nation?” and “To what extent are different attitudes of Ukrainian citizens towards the European Union and Russia explained by individual, household and contextual characteristics?”. It is argued that the historical legacy has a major role in shaping divisions in Ukraine, and that nation-building policies have not brought the result the Ukrainian authorities were looking for. Different attitudes towards the EU and Russia are to be explained for a good part by reported voting behavior and the residential location, along with other independent variables. In the conclusion, it is argued that there is no single geopolitical vision in Ukraine. Furthermore, that a slow reorientation of the public opinion towards Europe since the independence in 1991, along with an event in which the government had to choose a geopolitical direction could be a primary reason for the crisis. It remains a central challenge for the Ukrainian government to accommodate desires to ‘Europeanize’ along with desires to maintain strong ties with Russia. ~ 5 ~ INTRODUCTION TO THE GEOGRAPHICAL DIVISIONS IN UKRAINE CHAPTER ONE 1.1 INTRODUCTION On the 21st of November in 2013, the Eastern European country Ukraine suspended preparations for a trade agreement with the European Union. The government said that it was instead looking into setting up a joint commission to promote connections between Ukraine, Russia and the European Union. This marked the start of large-scale demonstrations in the capital Kyiv and other cities. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians expressed their discontent with the decision to delay the association deal with the EU. The protests turned violent in the beginning of 2014, and after deadly clashes in February, the Russian-oriented president Viktor Yanukovych