The impact of the UK’s public investments in UKAEA fusion research Final report January 2020 A report for the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) by London Economics Acknowledgements This independent research report was produced by Daniel Herr, Charlotte Duke, Moritz Godel, Wouter Landzaat, Ryan Perkins, and Carolyn Visser from London Economics. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessarily those of the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy or the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), nor do they reflect Government policy. We are grateful to all stakeholders for their time and insights. We would also like to acknowledge the support provided by BEIS, UKAEA and the Department for International Trade (DIT). Finally, we would like to acknowledge the peer reviewers for the time and effort invested into reviewing the final report of this study and would like to thank them for their valuable comments and feedback. © Crown copyright 2020 This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected]. Where we have identified any third-party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at: [email protected] The impact of the UK’s investments in UKAEA fusion research Contents Executive summary _________________________________________________________ 5 1 Introduction ____________________________________________________________ 9 1.1 Study objectives and scope ___________________________________________ 12 1.2 Approach and methodology ___________________________________________ 12 1.3 Baseline and counterfactual ___________________________________________ 13 1.4 Caveats and limitations _______________________________________________ 14 1.5 Structure of report ___________________________________________________ 15 2 Fusion research in the UK ________________________________________________ 17 2.1 Early period (50s/60s) ________________________________________________ 17 2.2 70s-early 2000s ____________________________________________________ 19 2.3 Current and planned future developments ________________________________ 21 3 Income and expenditure on UKAEA fusion research ___________________________ 23 4 Impact of UKAEA’s fusion programme ______________________________________ 28 4.1 Scientific impact ____________________________________________________ 28 Development of adjacent technologies ______________________________________ 30 4.2 Industrial impact ____________________________________________________ 32 4.3 Impact on skills _____________________________________________________ 35 4.4 International leadership _______________________________________________ 38 4.5 Other impacts ______________________________________________________ 40 5 Economic Impact ______________________________________________________ 42 5.1 Impact of UKAEA contract expenditure ___________________________________ 44 Estimating direct, indirect and induced effects of UKAEA contract expenditure _______ 44 Direct impact of UKAEA contract expenditure _________________________________ 45 Indirect and induced impact of UKAEA contract expenditure _____________________ 47 Geographical distribution of UKAEA contract expenditure _______________________ 49 5.2 Impact of UKAEA staff expenditure ______________________________________ 50 Estimating direct, indirect and induced effects of UKAEA staff expenditure __________ 50 Direct job creation by UKAEA _____________________________________________ 52 Direct, indirect and induced effects of UKAEA staff expenditure ___________________ 53 5.3 Impact of other UKAEA expenditure on raw materials and consumables, and other external expenses _______________________________________________________ 54 5.4 Impact of ITER contract expenditure _____________________________________ 55 Direct impact of ITER contract expenditure ___________________________________ 56 Indirect and induced impact of ITER contract expenditure _______________________ 59 3 The impact of the UK’s investments in UKAEA fusion research Scale of underestimation of ITER impacts ___________________________________ 62 Potential additional impact from spin-offs ____________________________________ 62 5.5 Total economic impact _______________________________________________ 64 6 Additionality of impacts __________________________________________________ 67 6.1 Additionality of UKAEA staff expenditure _________________________________ 67 6.2 Additionality of UKAEA contract expenditure ______________________________ 68 6.3 Additionality of ITER contract contracts to UK companies ____________________ 68 Net impacts of ITER ____________________________________________________ 69 6.4 Tipping point analysis ________________________________________________ 69 7 Impact of the “no UKAEA” counterfactual scenario on the UK ____________________ 72 7.1 Impact on fusion-related research and skills _______________________________ 72 7.2 Impact on industry ___________________________________________________ 74 7.3 Alternative uses of the Culham site ______________________________________ 75 The fate of other WWII airfields ____________________________________________ 75 7.4 Focus of government investment in absence of the UKAEA ___________________ 76 8 Environmental impact ___________________________________________________ 77 9 Future opportunities for fusion energy ______________________________________ 79 10 Conclusions _________________________________________________________ 81 References _______________________________________________________________ 82 Index of Tables and Figures __________________________________________________ 87 Tables _________________________________________________________________ 87 Figures ________________________________________________________________ 87 Annexes _________________________________________________________________ 89 Annex 1: Logic map ______________________________________________________ 89 Annex 2: Methodological annex _____________________________________________ 91 Overview of methodology ________________________________________________ 91 Rationale for the chosen modelling approach _________________________________ 95 Caveats and Limitations _________________________________________________ 95 Annex 3: Survey _________________________________________________________ 98 Compilation of sampling frame ____________________________________________ 99 Survey questionnaire __________________________________________________ 100 Annex 4: Scientific impact of Fusion Research in Culham – Bibliometric analysis ______ 109 SCIENTIFIC IMPACT OF FUSION RESEARCH IN CULHAM _______________________ 110 Introduction ____________________________________________________________ 113 Overview of research activities in the Culham Science Centre _____________________ 113 Comparison with Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics ________________________ 116 Trends in Nuclear Fusion Research _________________________________________ 117 4 The impact of the UK’s investments in UKAEA fusion research Executive summary Fusion produces energy by emulating the process that powers the sun and stars in experimental fusion devices such as tokamaks. Fusion energy has vast potential, offering the promise of a safe, green, and abundant power source. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain to harnessing fusion as an energy source, with fully operational commercial fusion reactors not expected for the next 30-50 years. This study by London Economics for the Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) assesses the costs and benefits of the UK’s investments in UKAEA fusion research to date. It does not consider the sizable future benefits of fusion research to the UK as this was out of scope for this present study. UKAEA is a world leading facility for the advancement of fusion energy. Located at the Culham Science Centre in Oxfordshire, it is home to the Joint European Torus (JET) tokamak which currently holds the world record for fusion energy output. The location also supports a range of advanced technology research operations including the Remote Applications in Challenging Environments Centre (RACE), connected and autonomous vehicles research (Pit Lane), and the Hydrogen-3 Advanced Technology (H3AT) centre of excellence. The Culham site is also home to over 20 diverse businesses including stored energy solutions, architectural services, healthcare equipment, aerospace engine technology and software consultancy. Economic impact UKAEA’s economic impact includes the creation of direct employment such as researchers and other highly skilled staff as well as direct contract and materials spend in the UK. In addition, UKAEA brings commercial benefits to UK industry from working with, or being supported by, UKAEA. UKAEA’s world leading knowledge in fusion helps to attract foreign investment, such as contracts related to ITER - a worldwide collaboration intended to provide a technical demonstration of large-scale fusion power - to the UK and generates spin-offs in the form of new technologies and firms. The total economic impact of UKAEA to the UK economy is estimated to be between £1.3 billion and £1.4 billion