View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2007-09 The volatile situation of Balochistan - options to bring it into streamline Shah, Abid Hussain Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10280 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE VOLATILE SITUATION OF BALOCHISTAN - OPTIONS TO BRING IT INTO STREAMLINE by Abid Hussain Shah September 2007 Thesis Advisor: Robert O’Connell Second Advisor: Steven Iatrou Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2007 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Volatile Situation of Balochistan - Options to 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Bring it into Streamline 6. AUTHOR Abid Hussain Shah 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) While most of the world's media remains focused on insurgent attacks on coalition forces, oil facilities and Shia and Sunni sectarian attacks in Iraq, Pakistan is experiencing a rising tide of violence in the country's volatile Balochistan province, where the majority of the energy-starved country's natural gas facilities are located. Pakistan, currently engaged in a drawn-out conflict against al-Qaeda and Taliban remnants in its North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), is slowly descending into conflict with anti-government forces in Balochistan province, raising the unsettling prospect of a rising second internal front against militants. A second internal front would drain resources from Pakistan's ability to maintain effective, smooth and stable control over the law and order situation in the country and its campaign against al-Qaeda and Taliban remnants in the NWFP and the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA). Under the prevailing situation conventional means to bring about peace and encouraging environments for political and economic stability seem to be elusive. In this thesis an effort will be made to uncover the root causes, historical perspective and genesis of socio cultural setup in Balochistan, so that the modern techniques and tools of IO/IW can be used to recommend useful options to deal with the situation by the Pakistan government. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Pakistan, Sardars, Tumandars, Tribal System, Information 15. NUMBER OF Operations, Information Warfare, Psychological Warfare, Military Deception, Combat PAGES Camera. 151 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE VOLATILE SITUATION OF BALOCHISTAN- OPTIONS TO BRING IT INTO STREAMLINE Abid Hussain Shah Major, Pakistan Army B.Sc. Pakistan Military Academy 1992 BESE (Bachelor of Electrical and Software Engineering), National University of Science and Technology (NUST), 2002 MSc. (Hons.) Balochistan University 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION WARFARE SYSTEMS ENGINEERING MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION OPERATIONS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2007 Author: Abid Hussain Shah Approved by: Robert O’Connell Thesis Advisor Steven Iatrou Thesis Advisor Dan C. Boger Chairman, Department of Information Sciences Gordon McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT While most of the world's media remains focused on insurgent attacks on coalition forces, oil facilities and Shia and Sunni sectarian attacks in Iraq, Pakistan is experiencing a rising tide of violence in the country's volatile Balochistan province, where the majority of the energy-starved country's natural gas facilities are located. Pakistan, currently engaged in a drawn-out conflict against al-Qaeda and Taliban remnants in its North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), is slowly descending into conflict with anti-government forces in Balochistan province, raising the unsettling prospect of a rising second internal front against militants. A second internal front would drain resources from Pakistan's ability to maintain effective, smooth and stable control over the law and order situation in the country and its campaign against al-Qaeda and Taliban remnants in the NWFP and the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA). Under the prevailing situation conventional means to bring about peace and encouraging environments for political and economic stability seem to be elusive. In this thesis an effort will be made to uncover the root causes, historical perspective and genesis of socio cultural setup in Balochistan, so that the modern techniques and tools of IO/IW can be used to recommend useful options to deal with the situation by the Pakistan government. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 II. BALOCHISTAN’S HISTORY AND DEMOGRAPHY ...................................... 5 A. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ............................................................. 5 B. THE BRITISH INVOLVEMENT ............................................................ 8 C. THE CURRENT SITUATION IN BALOCHISTAN.............................. 10 D. DEMOGRAPHY ................................................................................. 12 E. BALOCHISTAN AND ITS STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE ................... 12 III. TRIBAL STRUCTURE AND THE GENESIS OF THE SARDARI SYSTEM . 15 A. TRIBAL STRUCTURE ....................................................................... 15 1. Baloch Tribes......................................................................... 15 a. Bugti............................................................................. 15 b. Bungulzai..................................................................... 16 c. Jamali........................................................................... 16 d. Kaisarani...................................................................... 16 e. Marri ............................................................................. 16 f. Mazari........................................................................... 16 2. Brohvi Tribes.......................................................................... 17 a. Bizinjo .......................................................................... 17 b. Mengal.......................................................................... 17 c. Mohammad Hassani ................................................... 17 d. Rinds............................................................................ 17 e. Zehri (Moosiani) .......................................................... 18 3. Pakhtun Tribes....................................................................... 18 a. Kakars .......................................................................... 18 b. Achakzais .................................................................... 18 c. Ghilzais ........................................................................ 19 B. THE GENESIS OF SARDARI SYSTEM ............................................ 19 1. Overview of System............................................................... 19 2. The Origin............................................................................... 19 3. British Involvement ............................................................... 20 4. The Crisis of the Sandemanian Sardari System ................. 21 5. Present Tribal Feuds ............................................................. 21 IV. ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF THE SARDARI SYSTEM ON THE SOCIO- POLITICO COMPOSITION OF BALOCHISTAN.......................................... 23 A. IMPACT/FALLOUT OF SARDARI SYSTEM ..................................... 23 1. Political Landscape ............................................................... 23 a.