OCTOBER 2016 CENTRAL OTAGO LAKES WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 CENTRAL OTAGO LAKES HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY REPORT October 2016 Home loan affordability is a measure of the proportion of take-home pay that is needed to make the mortgage payments for a typical household. If that is no more than 40%, then a mortgage is considered ‘affordable’. The following are typical assessments for households at three stages of home ownership. FIRST HOME BUYERS 25-29 Second Rung - YOUNG FAMILY 30-34 Second Rung - OLDER FAMILY 35-39 First home buyers earn the me- Young family buyers earn medi- Older family buyers earn dian income for their age group, an incomes in their age bracket, median incomes in their age and buy a lower quartile priced and buy a median priced home bracket, and buy a median home in their area. Both parties in their area. One partner works priced home in their area. Both work full-time. half-time. partners work full-time. Mortgage payments as a Mortgage payments as a Mortgage payments as a percentage of take home pay percentage of take home pay percentage of take home pay Take Home October 16 33.5% Take Home October 16 40.6% Take Home October 16 28.9% Pay Pay Pay $1,480.67 October 15 22.7% $1,222.71 October 15 36.4% $1,639.66 October 15 28.9% per Week October 14 31.4% per Week October 14 44.5% per Week October 14 28.4% October 11 28.8% October 11 46.4% This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple where This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple with a This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple who both are aged 25–29 and are working full time, to buy a home at the young family to move up the property ladder and buy their next home are both aged 35-39 and working full time, to move up the property lower quartile price in Central Otago Lakes. at the current median price. ladder and buy their next home at the current median price. It assumes they earn the median rate of pay for people of their age It is assumed that one partner works full time and one works half It is assumed that both are paid at the median rate for people of in their region, which would give them a take home pay of $1,480.67 time and both are paid at the median rate for people of their age in their age in Central Otago Lakes, and that they no longer receive the a week. Central Otago Lakes, and that they receive the Working for Families Working for Families allowance. It is assumed they would have saved $72,203 to use as a deposit, by allowance. That would give them total after tax weekly income of $1,639.66 a putting aside 20% of their net pay each week for up to four years, That would give them total after tax weekly income of $1,222.71 a week. earning interest on the savings at the 90 day bank deposit rate, or week. It is also assumed they purchased their current home 10 years ago for 20% of the house price, whichever is lower. It is also assumed they purchased their current home five years ago $259,500, which was the lower quartile selling price in Central Otago To buy a home at Central Otago Lakes’s lower quartile price they for $318,300, which was the lower quartile selling price in Central Lakes at the time. would need a mortgage of $419,497. Otago Lakes at the time. If they sold that home for the current lower quartile price in Central They would need to set aside $495.56 a week to cover the mortgage If they sold that home for the current lower quartile price in Central Otago Lakes of $491,700, they would have equity of $252,948 to use payments, which would be 33.5% of their take home pay. Otago Lakes of $491,700, they would have equity of $233,981 to use as a deposit on a new home. Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up no as a deposit on a new home. If they purchased a home at Central Otago Lakes’s current median more than 40% of take home pay. If they purchased a home at Central Otago Lakes’s current median price of $659,000 they would need a $406,052 mortgage. On that basis it would be affordable for a young couple earning the price of $659,000 they would need a $425,019 mortgage. The repayments on this would be would be $474.07 a week which median pay rate to buy a lower quartile-priced home in Central Otago The repayments on this would be would be $496.21 a week which would be 28.9% of their weekly income. Lakes. would be 40.6% of their weekly income. Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up no Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up no more than 40% of take home pay. more than 40% of take home pay. Weekly Deposit LQ House Int. rate Weekly Index Weekly Deposit Meedian Int. rate Weekly Index Weekly Deposit Median Int. rate Weekly Index Income saved Price % pymt % Income saved House Price % pymt % Income saved House Price % pymt % $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Oct 16 1,480.67 72,203 491,700 4.49 495.56 33.5 Oct 16 1,222.71 233,981 659,000 4.49 496.21 40.6 Oct 16 1,639.66 252,948 659,000 4.49 474.07 28.9 Oct 15 1,442.02 69,320 334,400 4.84 326.8 22.7 Oct 15 1,191.29 108,215 465,000 4.84 433.57 36.4 Oct 15 1,596.38 85,400 465,000 4.84 461.3 28.9 Oct 14 1,408.76 67,566 384,900 5.95 441.95 31.4 Oct 14 1,171.23 120,656 500,000 5.95 521.68 44.5 Oct 14 1,564.69 177,233 500,000 5.95 443.88 28.4 2 WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 CENTRAL OTAGO LAKES KEY DRIVERS OF HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY October 2016 HOUSE PRICES INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGE PAYMENTS The median dwelling price was $659,000 in October 2016, down from The average bank interest rate for two Average 2 Year $694,500 in September. In October 2015 it was $465,000, which puts annual year fixed rate mortgages was 4.493% for Fixed rate growth at 41.7%. Five years ago the median was $420,000. October, -35 basis points less than the 4.838% 12 months earlier. This Month 4.493% They were 156 homes sold in October, up from 146 in September. That The RBNZ has recently had a rate cut pro- A Month Ago 4.421% compares with 173 sales in October last year and 68 sales five years ago. gram with the first reduction occurring in A Year Ago 4.838% June 2015 and the latest one in November The lower-quartile house price was $491,700 in October 2016, down from 2016. The reserve bank recently signaled Mortgage $535,200 in July. Annual growth was 47%, from the $334,400 lower-quartile that further rate cuts are now unlikely. Payment (Weekly) house price in August 2015. Wholesale rates have been rising recently and that will put upword pressure on fixed First Home Buyers $495.56 Lower Quartile Median House mortgage rates. Second Rung- Young $496.21 House Price Price Our model assumes borrowers switched to families a 2 year fixed rate in June 2014, following Second Rung- Older $474.07 Central Otago Lakes the shift reflected in RBNZ data. buyer October 16 $491,700 $659,000 September 16 $535,200 $694,500 INCOMES (WEEKLY TAKE HOME PAY) October 15 $334,400 $465,000 October 14 $384,900 $500,000 First Home Buyers Young Families Older Families First home buyers are aged Second Rung- Young Second rung- Older family October 11 $318,300 $420,000 25-29. A household is a male families are aged 30-34. buyers are aged 35-39. A and a female both earning A household is a male, a household is a male, a female, All NZ First Quartile House Price Growth Median House Price Growth median incomes. There is no female and a child aged five. and school aged children. child in this household. Take One partner works part- Both parents work full time. October 16 $334,500 $510,000 home pay is gross pay less time. Take home pay is gross Take home pay is gross in- income tax. pay less income tax. come less income tax. September 16 $335,000 $515,000 The change in take home pay is as The change in take home pay is The change in take home pay is as October 15 $305,000 $460,000 follows: as follows: follows: October 11 $250,000 $359,000 Weekly Change Weekly Change Weekly Change Oct 16 $1,480.67 2.68% Oct 16 $1,222.71 2.64% Oct 16 $1,639.66 2.71% Oct 15 $1,442.02 2.36% Oct 15 $1,191.29 1.71% Oct 15 $1,596.38 2.02% Oct 14 $1,408.76 3.02% Oct 14 $1,171.23 1.52% Oct 14 $1,564.69 3.45% Oct 13 $1,367.50 Oct 13 $1,153.66 Oct 13 $1,512.49 3 WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P.