C OUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY D EMOCRACY & G OVERNANCE Summer 2007 Based on structural and event data available as of May 2007 This report is produced as part of the CIFP governance and Guatemala TABLE 1: KEY FINDINGS democratic processes project. It is intended as a baseline analysis, • Narco-criminal involvement in assessing structural and dynamic EXECUTIVE SUMMARY politics is highly destabilizing. facets of democratic governance in The government of Guatemala • Corruption is widespread within Guatemala. A subsequent report will faces many challenges to its authority, build on this baseline analysis, the police force. legitimacy, and capacity (see Table incorporating feedback from CIDA • Government is unresponsive to officers and subsequent research on 1). Issues that influence urban violence. areas identified as central in this Guatemala’s immediate future are • The political system is document. The overall project aims tied primarily to high levels of fragmented by the weak party to support informed, evidence- criminality and the inability of the system. based decision making for Canadian Guatemalan National Police to foreign policy and development reduce instances of political • Exclusion of indigenous groups assistance related to democratization violence and disarm gangs. The from political, economical and social sectors continues. and good governance. influence of narco-trafficking groups is expanding, with some This document expresses the views additional pressure on the now exercising political and and opinions of the authors, and government to enact reforms may economical control of entire regions not necessarily those of CIDA, of escalate social conflict. other departments of the in the north of the country. Such Government of Canada or of other developments endanger the Economically, Guatemala has taken organizations or individuals political legitimacy of the al advantage of the US-Central consulted during its preparation. government and reduce popular America Free Trade Agreement to faith in the democratic system. Not to be cited, duplicated or bolster exports and diversify its circulated without permission industry, leading to more rapid The approach of elections of the authors and CIFP. All economic growth. However, few scheduled for September 2007 has material copyright CIFP 2007. benefits of this growth have begun to generate violence and reached the poor thus far. Social Feedback is welcome, and may political instability in some regions; spending has increased only be sent to [email protected] left unchecked, such violence marginally in the last decade. could destabilize the entire country. PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR Armed gangs have assassinated TABLE OF CONTENTS David Carment several mayoral candidates recently, further marring the electoral process. Executive Summary 1 SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST Governance Profile 5 Stewart Prest On a more positive note, the Key Stakeholders 6 candidacy of Rigoberta Menchú for Trend/Structure Summary 10 LEAD RESEARCHER President indicates a new level of Sonia Bouffard political mobilization and hope for Primary Drivers 12 indigenous groups that have been Secondary Drivers 24 Norman Paterson School of marginalized for most of Guatemala’s Underlying Conditions 28 political history. Though positive in International Affairs Appendix 1: History 30 1412 Dunton Tower and of itself, this indigenous 1125 Colonel By Drive mobilization could nonetheless Appendix 2: Map 31 Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 prove destabilizing, as the Bibliography 32 © CIFP With the generous support of the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) GOVERNANCE & DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES GUATEMALA UNDERLYING CONDITIONS An assessment of Guatemala’s even as negative events became TABLE 2: UNDERLYING CONDITIONS structural baseline performance less common or less significant. using the CIFP governance and Together they result in a Political Government & Rule of Law democracy indexing methodology moderately positive overall trend Stability Market & Efficiency reveals that all six clusters are of value of 0.61, indicating a slight Violence some concern for good improvement in events relating to 3.74 5.77 6.82 governance and democratic governance and democratic processes (see Table 2). Of processes (see Table 3). Human Government Democratic Rights Transparency Participation these, rule of law is of greatest & concern. The absence of an The main drivers of this trend are Accountability independent judicial branch, the events related to three clusters: 5.56 6.21 5.14 overall quality of the legal Political Stability and Violence, system, high levels of criminality Rule of Law, and Government and corruption, a lack of press and Market Efficiency. Most freedom or transparency in events recorded over the TABLE 3: EVENT MONITORING RESULTS government policy-making, and monitoring period related to one human rights violations are all of these three areas. Events in areas of concern. the latter two clusters indicate a Average Events Score continuation of the status quo, +3 DYNAMIC EVENTS ANALYSIS while events related to the rule of Between 1 November 2006 law exhibit a moderately positive and 30 April 2007, CIFP trend. The assassination of the recorded 331 events that either three Salvadoran diplomats on 20 affected or reflected the level of February 2007 had a major good governance and democratic impact on the event analysis. 0 processes in Guatemala. A Though negative themselves, the statistical analysis of the assassinations forced the recorded events during this 28 government to react. It launched week period shows that events a series of inquiries and from the period have a positive subsequently enacted new -3 average score (0.19), indicating legislation allowing substantial reform of the police forces, which Average Score: 0.19 the presence of more, or more (Moderately positive) intensely positive events. Both were implicated in the attack. stabilizing and destabilizing The legislation also mandated a Trend Score :0.61 events show a moderately reorganization of the entire (Moderately positive) positive trend. In other words, judicial sector. Following these positive events became more developments, events related to common or more significant the rule of law d the end of the during the monitoring period monitoring period. TABLE 4: AGGREGATE EVENTS RECORDED READING THE EVENTS CHART Red line (solid): Trend line for events; down- ward slope left to right is negative Blue line (solid): Trend line for number of events Purple line (dotted): This indicates the sum total scores of events (positive or negative), as coded in the event monitoring process; the red trend line is derived from these values. Blue line (dotted): The total number of events; the blue trend line is derived from these values 2 GOVERNANCE & DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES KEY EVENTS Assassination of three Salvadoran Elections Rigoberta Menchú runs for diplomats The political campaigns for the President On 20 February 2007, three September 2007 elections are In February, Rigoberta Menchú Salvadoran deputies to the underway. Several political parties became the presidential candidate Central American Parliament were have already nominated their for the Encounter for Guatemala found shot and burned inside a presidential candidates and (EG) political party. EG and vehicle abandoned near El members of the Legislature have Menchú's Winaq political movement Jocotillo village, Villa Canales. resigned in order to start began creating a national The deputies were identified as campaigning, which is common structure and choosing candidates Eduardo D'Aubisson, William practice in Guatemala. Political for upcoming mayoral and Pichinte, and Jose Ramon Gonzalez. violence escalated with the Congressional elections. Menchú A fourth body, presumed to be assassination of a number of became the eighth candidate to the driver, was also in the mayors and mayoral candidates seek Guatemala's presidency in vehicle. Three police officers unwilling to cooperate with narco- this year's general elections. Her were arrested in connection with trafficking gangs. The Electoral candidacy represents hope for the murder and placed in a Council and many members of the indigenous communities eager to detention center. However, while government have already expressed play a bigger role in the in detention, the three officers their concern that the election will Guatemalan democratic system were murdered. Vice-President be violent and have encouraged from which they have historically Carlos Vielman resigned following candidates to refuse to cooperate been excluded. Her candidacy the events, acknowledging that with criminal gangs and narco- also increases the risk of future criminal gangs had infiltrated the trafficking groups. (Source: confrontation between the traditional government structure and that Guatemala City Prensa Libre, 26 elite and the indigenous the police forces needed to be February 2007.) population. (Source: Guatemala completely purged and restructured. City Siglo XXI, 22 February (Source: Guatemala City Prensa 2007.) Libre, 20 February 2007.) “Rigoberta Menchú’s presidential candidacy represents hope for indigenous communities eager to play a bigger role in the Guatemalan democratic system from which they have historically been excluded” COUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY 3 GUATEMALA SCENARIO FORECASTING Scenario analysis is one of the primary analytical tools used by CIFP to set the stage for policy evaluation. Scenarios evaluate interactions between stakeholder agendas and grievances,