Rail Baltica Global Project Cost- Benefit Analysis Final Report 30 April 2017 x Date Table of contents Table of contents ........................................................................................................................ 2 Version ...................................................................................................................................... 2 1. Terms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... 3 2. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 EY work context ................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Context of the CBA ............................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Key constraints and considerations of the analysis ................................................................ 6 3. Background and information about the project ....................................................................... 8 3.1 Project background and timeline ......................................................................................... 8 3.2 Brief description of the project ........................................................................................... 9 4. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Passenger and freight flow forecasting methodology .......................................................... 12 4.2 CBA methodology ............................................................................................................ 24 5. Economic and market context of the Project ......................................................................... 31 5.1 Macroeconomic overview of the region .............................................................................. 31 5.2 Passenger ecosystem overview ......................................................................................... 33 5.3 Freight ecosystem overview .............................................................................................. 47 6. Macroeconomic and sector development scenarios ............................................................... 93 6.1 Overall approach ............................................................................................................. 93 6.2 High case scenario: Scenario 2 ......................................................................................... 94 6.3 Low case scenario: Scenario 3 .......................................................................................... 95 6.4 Summary of factors used in scenarios ............................................................................... 95 7. Option identification ........................................................................................................ 100 7.1 Do-nothing option analysis ............................................................................................. 100 7.2 With project option analysis ............................................................................................ 101 8. Passenger and freight forecasts ........................................................................................ 113 8.1 Passenger flow forecasts ................................................................................................ 113 8.2 Freight flow forecasts ..................................................................................................... 126 9. Financial analysis ............................................................................................................. 143 9.1 CBA assumptions .......................................................................................................... 143 9.2 Financial analysis........................................................................................................... 148 10. Socio-economic analysis ................................................................................................... 162 10.1 Socio-economic analysis ................................................................................................ 162 11. Risk and sensitivity analysis .............................................................................................. 194 11.1 Approach to definition and assessment of risks ................................................................ 194 11.2 Summary of identified potential risks for Rail Baltica project .............................................. 196 11.3 Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................ 198 11.4 Risk assessment ............................................................................................................ 205 12. Conclusions and recommendations .................................................................................... 225 12.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 225 12.2 Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 225 13. Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 227 13.1 Expected developments in the do-nothing option .............................................................. 227 13.2 Excerpts from Atkins assessment of potential CAPEX and OPEX level ................................. 289 13.3 Macroeconomic forecasts used for the economic analysis .................................................. 292 13.4 List of interviewed Stakeholders ..................................................................................... 293 Version No. Comments Date 1.0 Sent for Supervisory Board approval 24.04.2017. 1.1 Sent for Supervisory Board approval 30.04.2017. 2 1. Terms and Abbreviations Term/ abbreviation Explanation AADTI Average annual daily traffic intensity AC Alternating current AVG Average B/C Benefits divided by costs bln Billion CAPEX Capital expenses CARG Compound annual growth rate CBA Cost-Benefit analysis CBA Guide Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects, version December 20141 CIS The Commonwealth of Independent States CN Combined Nomenclature CO2 Carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas) DG ECFIN Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs EC European Commission E-multiplier Elastic-multiplier methodology ENPV Economic net present value ERA European railway agency E-roads European roads belonging, accepted and systemised by UNECE ERR Economic rate of return ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System ELRON “Eesti Liinirongid” JSC ETA Estimated time to Arrival EU European Union EUR Euro FDI Foreign direct investments FNPV Financial net present value FNPV (c) Financial net present value (before the CEF co-financing) FRR Financial internal rate of return FRR (c) Financial internal rate of return (before the CEF co-financing) GDP Gross Domestic Product GSM-R Global System for Mobile Communications – Railway GVA Gross Value Added ha Hectare JSC Joint stock company IRR Internal Rate of Return km Kilometres kV Kilovolts Ltd. Limited company m Meters m2 Square meters mln Million 1 Acquired from: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/cba_guide.pdf 3 Term/ abbreviation Explanation N/A Not applicable NPV Net present value OPEX Operating expenses PANAMAX Ships able to pass through Panama canal (max weight 65 000 tonnes, max draft 12 m) PAX Passenger PIT Personal income tax PRM Persons with reduced mobility PLN Polish Zloty RBR RB Rail AS Region Finland, the Baltic States and Poland Ro-Ro Roll-on & roll-off SJSC State joint stock company SUEZMAX Ships able to pass through Suez canal (max weight 160 000 tonnes, max draft 20.1m) t Tonnes tkm Tonne kilometres TEN-T Trans-European transport network TEU Twenty-foot equivalent unit TLU Tallinn University Thous. Thousands vkm Vehicle kilometres V Volts UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 4 2. Introduction 2.1 EY work context In accordance to the agreement between EY and RB Rail AS (RBR), No.8/2015-27 dated 06.10.2015; EY has been commissioned to prepare a Global Cost-Benefit analysis (Global CBA) that involves the following tasks: ► Definition of the ’do-nothing’ option. ► Working with general economic development scenarios of the region. ► Passenger and cargo traffic forecasts. ► Identification of options for a cost-benefit analysis for a fast conventional standard gauge railway line (Rail Baltica II) in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. ► Financial analysis. ► Socio-economic analysis. ► Risk and sensitivity analysis. Tasks have been carried out during the period of October 2015 to March 2017, involving: ► Desk research of publicly available data and previously conducted studies. ► Analysis of the information provided by RBR and the national project governance bodies. ► Conducting interviews with transportation and logistics industry representatives as well as Academic and institutional experts. ► Organization of workshops for the determination of specific inputs for the analysis. ► Development of traffic forecast model. ► Conducting the CBA calculations. The analysis has been carried out in close cooperation with RB Rail