THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA THE CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE FOR THE ANNUAL BUDGET FY2018/19 TO THE NDP II ASSESSMENT REPORT BY THE NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY (Made under the Section 13 (7) of Public Finance Management Act, 2015) 1st April 2019 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................ vii CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE FOR FY2018/19 ANNUAL BUDGET .............................. xi KEY MESSAGES ........................................................................................................................ xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... xvii SECTION ONE: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Legal Basis .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Planning and Budgeting Processes ........................................................................................ 1 1.3 Use of the CoC in Budget and Plan Implementation Oversight ................................................... 3 1.4 Organization of the report ............................................................................................................. 4 SECTION TWO: OVERVIEW OF 2017/18 CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE (BASED ON FULL YEAR ASSESSMENT) ....................................................................................................... 5 2 Background and Scope.................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Summary of Findings .................................................................................................................... 5 SECTION THREE: METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES .............................................. 14 3 Methodology for assessment of annual budget compliance ....................................................... 14 3.1 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................... 15 SECTION FOUR: RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT FOR CONSISTENCY OF THE ANNUAL BUDGET TO NDPII .................................................................................................. 16 4 Overall Assessment of Budget Compliance ................................................................................ 16 4.1 Macro Level Compliance Assessment ........................................................................................ 16 4.1.1 Overall Assessment ..................................................................................................................... 16 4.1.2 Real Sector Assessment .............................................................................................................. 16 4.1.3 Fiscal Sector ................................................................................................................................ 17 4.1.4 External Sector ............................................................................................................................ 19 4.1.5 Monetary Sector .......................................................................................................................... 19 4.1.6 Key emerging issues ................................................................................................................... 20 4.2 NATIONAL STRATEGIC LEVEL COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT ...................................... 21 4.2.1 Overall Assessment ................................................................................................................... 21 4.2.2 Theme/Goal Level ..................................................................................................................... 21 4.2.3 NDPII Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.4 Development Strategies ............................................................................................................ 25 4.2.5 Core Projects ............................................................................................................................. 29 4.2.6 Key Emerging Issues ................................................................................................................. 32 4.3 FY2018/19 SECTOR AND MDA LEVEL ASSESSMENT ...................................................... 34 4.3.1 AGRICULTURE SECTOR ........................................................................................................ 34 4.3.1.1 Overall CoC performance of the sector ...................................................................................... 34 4.3.1.2 Development and existence of planning processes ..................................................................... 34 4.3.1.3 Sector projects alignment ............................................................................................................ 34 4.3.1.4 Alignment of the BFP and Annual Budget ................................................................................. 35 4.3.1.5 Budget performance .................................................................................................................... 35 4.3.1.6 Summary MDA level Performance ............................................................................................. 36 4.3.1.7 Key emerging issues ................................................................................................................... 36 4.3.1.8 Contribution to SDGs ................................................................................................................. 37 4.3.1.9 Cross cutting issues ..................................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 WORKS AND TRANSPORT SECTOR .................................................................................... 39 4.3.2.1 Overall CoC performance of the sector ...................................................................................... 39 i 4.3.2.2 Development and existence of planning processes ..................................................................... 40 4.3.2.3 Sector projects alignment ............................................................................................................ 40 4.3.2.4 Alignment of the BFP and Annual Budget ................................................................................. 41 4.3.2.5 Budget performance .................................................................................................................... 42 4.3.2.6 Summary MDA level Performance ............................................................................................. 42 4.3.2.7 Key emerging issues ................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.2.8 Contribution to SDGs ................................................................................................................. 44 4.3.2.9 Cross cutting issues ..................................................................................................................... 44 4.3.3 ENERGY SECTOR .................................................................................................................... 45 4.3.3.1 Overall CoC performance of the sector ...................................................................................... 46 4.3.3.2 Development and existence of planning processes ..................................................................... 46 4.3.3.3 Sector projects alignment ............................................................................................................ 46 4.3.3.4 Alignment of the BFP and Annual Budget ................................................................................. 47 4.3.3.5 Budget performance .................................................................................................................... 47 4.3.3.6 Summary MDA level Performance ............................................................................................. 47 4.3.3.7 Key emerging issues ................................................................................................................... 48 4.3.3.8 Contribution to SDGs ................................................................................................................. 48 4.3.3.9 Cross cutting issues ..................................................................................................................... 49 4.3.4 TOURISM, TRADE AND INDUSTRY SECTOR .................................................................... 50 4.3.4.1 Overall CoC performance of the sector ...................................................................................... 50 4.3.4.2 Development and existence of planning processes ..................................................................... 50 4.3.4.3 Sector projects alignment ............................................................................................................ 50 4.3.4.4 Alignment of the BFP and Annual Budget ................................................................................