Report outlining the SRT framework Deliverable D4.2 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870708 Disclaimer: The contents of this deliverable are the sole responsibility of one or more Parties of the SmartCulTour consortium and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the Research Executive Agency and European Commission under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. Copyright and Reprint Permissions “You may freely reproduce all or part of this paper for non-commercial purposes, provided that the following conditions are fulfilled: (i) to cite the authors, as the copyright owners (ii) to cite the SmartCulTour Project and mention that the EC co-finances it, by means of including this statement “Smart Cultural Tourism as a Driver of Sustainable Development of European Regions - SmartCulTour Project no. H2020-870708 co financed by EC H2020 program” and (iii) not to alter the information.” _______________________________________________________________________________________ How to quote this document: Petrić, L., Škrabić Perić, B., Hell, M., Kuliš, Z., Mandić, A., Pivčević, S., Šimundić, B., Muštra, V., Grgić, J., Mikulić, D. (2021). Report outlining the SRT framework. Deliverable 4.2) of the Horizon 2020 project SmartCulTour (GA number 870708), published on the project web site on March, 2021: http://www.smartcultour.eu/deliverables/ This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870708 Deliverable D4.2 Title: Report outlining the SRT framework Due date: February, 2021 Submission date: March, 2021 Approved by Leader of Work Package: Dr Lidija Petrić, Full professor, WP Leader (FEBT Split) Type: Report Author List: Dr Lidija Petrić, Full professor (FEBT Split) Dr Blanka Škrabić Perić, Associate professor (FEBT Split) Dr Marko Hell, Associate professor (FEBT Split) Zvonimir Kuliš, MA, doctoral student (FEBT Split) Dr Ante Mandić, Assistant professor (FEBT Split) Dr Smiljana Pivčević, Associate professor (FEBT Split) Dr Blanka Šimundić, Assistant professor (FEBT Split) Dr Vinko Muštra, Associate professor (FEBT Split) Josip Grgić, MA (FEBT Split) Dr Davorka Mikulić, Assistant professor (FEBT Split) Dissemination Level ☒ PU: Public ☐ CO: Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) D4.2 – Report outlining the SRT framework Abstract A The SmartCulTour project aims "to propose and validate innovative, community-led interventions directed at sustainable cultural tourism development contributing to the EU regions' resilience and inclusiveness". Among several priorities, objective number two strives to "establish an improved indicator framework for cultural tourism impacts on sustainability and resilience and link these to an improved Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model ". Within the work package (WP) 4 tasks dedicated to the fulfilment of this objective were outlined. This Report reflects on Task 4.2., i.e. the Identification of relationships between cultural tourism development and destination's sustainability, resilience and the TALC model, and Task 4.3. on Developing the SRT framework. To deliver our conclusions, using the framework of indicators delivered in Report D4.1., the data collection process was performed by six project partners on the level of 35 Local Administrative Units (LAU) belonging to the six Living Labs. In both sustainability and resilience models, the dynamic panel data method was employed, with the regression analysis additionally applied in the sustainability model to deal with the static indicators. The obtained research results shed light on the nexus between cultural tourism development and destinations sustainability and resilience. Additionally, the TALC model demonstrated all LLs were in the stage of demand dependence, tending to reach the saturation stage unless restructuring policies and new products such as cultural tourism are introduced. The Report contains four sections, including the Introduction; the Empirical Analysis section – outlining the data collection process, methods, analysis and main conclusions following each part of the analysis; the TALC modelling section delivering a theoretical foundation for the TALC modelling together with its empirical verification; Conclusion and Reference sections. At the end of the Report, an Annex contains tables and figures to describe the attained results. 2 D4.2 – Report outlining the SRT framework Contents C Copyright and Reprint Permissions ......................................................................................................... 1 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Contents ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 4 The Empirical Analysis of Sustainability and Resilience Models ................................................................ 5 2.1. Data .........................................................................................................................................................5 2.1.1. Data collection process and sources ....................................................................................................5 2.1.2. Summary of the critical problems related to the data collection process ...........................................7 2.1.3. Recommendations regarding databases’ availability and data collection process enhancement ......8 2.1.4. Building composite indicators using multicriteria methods .................................................................9 2.1.5. Sustainable tourism indicators and indices ....................................................................................... 11 2.1.6. Resilience indicator ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.1.7. Cultural tourism indicators and indices ............................................................................................. 15 2.2. Models and methodology .................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.1. Sustainability model .......................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.2. Resilience model ................................................................................................................................ 28 2.2.3. Dynamic panel data and linear regression ........................................................................................ 35 2.3. Empirical results and discussion on Sustainability and Resilience models .......................................... 36 2.3.1. Results of Sustainability model.......................................................................................................... 36 2.3.2. Results of Resilience model ............................................................................................................... 55 TALC modelling .................................................................................................................................... 68 3.1. System and resilience thinking –the rationale behind the TALC modelling ......................................... 68 3.1.1. System and resilience thinking applied to tourist destination .......................................................... 70 3.1.2. The elements of system dynamics .................................................................................................... 71 3.1.3. System dynamics approach to TALC modelling ................................................................................. 72 3.1.4. Model development based on casual loop diagram ......................................................................... 73 3.2. Model improvement applied to Living Labs ......................................................................................... 74 3.2.1. Generic structures of the TALC behaviour ........................................................................................ 82 3.2.2.Scenario analysis based on TALC system dynamics model ................................................................ 86 3.2.3. Simulation results across Living Labs ................................................................................................. 87 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 93 Annex ................................................................................................................................................ 110 3 D4.2 – Report outlining the SRT framework Introduction 01The main objective of the SmartCulTour project financed by the EC Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Framework Programme is to propose and validate innovative, community-led interventions directed at sustainable cultural tourism development contributing to the EU regions’ (especially peripheral ones) resilience and inclusiveness. With that regard, the project focuses on (1)