01 Airbus A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2017 Contents Scope and definitions 02 1.0 2017 & beyond 04 Accidents in 2017 07 Beyond 2017 08 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2017-2036 09 2.0 Commercial aviation accidents since the advent of the jet age 10 Evolution of the number of flights & accidents 12 Evolution of the yearly accident rate 13 Evolution of the commercial air transport fleet 14 Impact of technology on aviation safety 16 Evolution of accident rates by aircraft generation 17 3.0 Commercial aviation accidents over the last 20 years 18 Evolution of the yearly accident rate 20 Ten year moving average of accident rate 21 Accidents by flight phase 22 Distribution of accidents by accident category 24 Evolution of the three main accident categories 25 Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accident rates 26 Loss Of Control In-flight (LOC-I) accident rates 27 Runway Excursion (RE) accident rates 28 List of tables & graphs 29 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 02 Scope and definitions This publication provides Airbus’ a flight in a commercial aircraft is annual analysis of aviation accidents, an inherently low risk activity. with commentary on the year 2017, Since the goal of any review of aviation as well as a review of the history of accidents is to help the industry Commercial Aviation’s safety record. further enhance safety, an analysis This analysis clearly demonstrates of forecasted aviation macro-trends that our industry has achieved huge is also provided. These highlight key improvements in safety over the factors influencing the industry’s last decades. It also underlines the consideration of detailed strategies significant contribution that technology for the further enhancement of has made in ensuring that taking Aviation Safety. Scope of the Brochure • All western-built commercial MD-11, MD-80/90, Mercure, air transport jets above Trident, VC-10, VFW 614. 40 passengers. Note: non-western-built jets are The following aircraft are included excluded due to lack of information in the statistics: 328 JET, A300, and business jets are not considered A300-600, A310, due to their particular operating A318/319/320/321, A330, A340, environment. A350, A380, Avro RJ series, B707, B717, B720, B727, B737, B747, • Since 1958, the advent B757, B767, B777, B787, BAC of commercial jets -111, BAE 146, Bombardier CRJ series, Caravelle, Comet, Concorde, • Revenue flights Convair 880/990, DC-8,DC-9, DC- • Operational accidents 10, Embraer E series, Embraer ERJ series, F-28, F-70, F-100, L-1011, • Hull loss and fatal types of accidents Source of Data • The accident data was extracted from official accident reports, as well as ICAO, Ascend and Airbus data bases. • Flight operations data were extracted from the Ascend data base. A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 03 Definitions • Revenue flight: flight involving become detached from the aircraft, the transport of passengers, or cargo or mail. Non revenue flight - direct exposure to jet blast, except such as training, ferry, positioning, when the injuries are from natural demonstration, maintenance, causes, self-inflicted or inflicted by acceptance and test flights are other persons, or when the injuries excluded. are to stowaways hiding outside the areas normally available to the • Operational accident: an accident passengers and crew. taking place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the • Hull loss: an event in which an intention of flight until such time as aircraft is destroyed or damaged all such persons have disembarked, beyond economical repair.The excluding sabotage, military actions, threshold of economical repair is terrorism, suicide and the like. decreasing with the residual value of the aircraft. Therefore, as an • Fatal accident: an event in which at aircraft is ageing, an event leading least one person is fatally or seriously to a damage economically repairable injured as a result of: years before may be considered - being in the aircraft, or a hull loss. - direct contact with any part of the aircraft, including parts which have Definition of accident categories Aviation organisations define more than 40 different accident categories. However the five listed below are the individual types which cause the most significant number of accidents. Runway Excursion (RE): Abnormal Runway Contact A lateral veer off or (ARC): longitudinal overrun off the Hard or unusual landing, runway surface, not primarily not primarily due to SCF, due to SCF or ARC. leading to an accident. Loss of Control in Flight System/Component Failure (LOC-I): or Malfunction (SCF): Loss of aircraft control while Failure or malfunction of an in flight not primarily due to aircraft system or component, SCF. related to either its design, the manufacturing process or a Controlled Flight Into maintenance issue, which leads Terrain (CFIT): to an accident. SCF includes In-flight collision with terrain, the powerplant, software and water, or obstacle without database systems. indicationof loss of control. A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 04 1.0 2017 & beyond 1.1 Accidents in 2017 07 1.2 Beyond 2017 08 1.3 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2017-2036 09 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 07 1.1 Accidents in 2017 Last year, like in 2015, western built accident per 10 million flights; half that commercial jets of the type included of third generation jets. in this analysis experienced only Industry-wide, hull losses were also one accident with fatalities. Whilst it reduced in number compared to 2016 is true that this news is not of any with only 6 such events occurring reassurance to the people impacted during operations, compared to by tragedy, our industry is nevertheless 13 the previous year. coming ever closer to having its first year with zero fatal accidents. But the lesson to be drawn from these encouraging results is not that Indeed, for the latest (fourth) generation we reached our targets. Far from it. of commercial jets, there were zero Now more than ever, we must avoid fatal accidents in 2017. This lowered the complacency and remember to keep our moving average of fatal accident rate for eyes clearly focused on emerging threats. this category of jet to less than one fatal 1 0.39 6 Fatal accident Hull losses in 2017 in 2017 0.15 0.17 0.03 Fatal accidents per million flight cycles Hull losses per million flight cycles 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Flight 33 35 departures MILLION MILLION In-service 22,300 24,550 fleet AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 08 1.2 Beyond 2017 Historical data KEEPING AN EYE ON EMERGING THREATS In the last 20 years, the industry-wide Considering these trends, we might shows air traffic accident rate has been divided by conclude that if the accident rate stays around 8 for fatal accidents, and by the same, the industry’s increased doubles every around 3 for hull losses considering all exposure to accidents in numerical generations of aircraft. Over the same terms is in direct proportion to this period, traffic increased by around increase in activity. To put it simply, 15 years 150%. This shows that investments more flights will mean more accidents in safety bear fruit, safety is enhanced, unless we work to decrease and accidents are largely prevented the accident rate. Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) from happening. predicts the same doubling of global That is why we at Airbus believe air traffic over the next next 15 years. However, when we observe the there is no room for complacency. increasing levels of congestion in our We believe we must be ambitious, Such a significant growth of industry airports and skies, the relative stability inject even more vigour into our activity means there is no room for of the industry in current times could industry’s long tradition of improvement, complacency in maintaining safety. be considered as somewhat stressed. and challenge ourselves to drive accident rates lower than ever before, The industry will need to work Additionally, the fleet’s growth rate is co-operatively together to increase tremendous, with traffic doubling every To achieve this, we will need to work safety enhancement efforts in order 15 years and the industry planning to co-operatively together, and increase to decrease the accident rate. be delivering over 2000 new aircraft our safety enhancement efforts per year by 2019. This growth must be by identifying the most promising supported by a proportional increase opportunities we have for responding in the number of trained personnel to the new hazards and threats which including pilots, technicians, cabin crew, are arising. and air traffic controllers and beyond. World annual traffic forecast x2 x2 x2 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 09 1.3 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2017-2036 Each aircraft delivered must be supported by a proportional increase in the number of trained pilots, Increase technicians, cabin crew, air traffic controllers, etc. in world fleet Ensuring that sufficient numbers of suitably trained personnel will be by 2036 available is one of the challenges +21,430 facing our industry. NORTH AMERICA EUROPE CIS +1,896 +3,258 +843 SOUTH AMERICA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC +1,654 +931 +2,010 +10,838 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 10 2.0 Commercial aviation accidents since the advent of the jet age 2.1 Evolution of the number of flights & accidents 12 2.2 Evolution of the yearly accident rate 13 2.3 Evolution of the commercial air transport fleet 14 2.4 Impact of technology on aviation safety 16 2.5 Evolution of accident rates by aircraft generation 17 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2017 12 2.1 Evolution of the number of flights & accidents No growth in the number of accidents despite a massive increase in exposure Accidents are rare occurrences, consequently their number may vary considerably from one year to the next.