August 2013 Infratil Monthly Operational Together Report for July 2013 Click to view + TrustPower + Infratil Energy Australia/Lumo + Z Energy + NZ Bus + Wellington Airport Infratil held its annual meeting in Wellington. All resolutions put to shareholders were passed, including support for the election of three directors. CEO Marko Bogoievski reiterated that Infratil’s goal is to continue growing earnings via on-going investment and tight risk management, with the immediate steps to be: + Maximise the value of the internal development pipeline (TrustPower’s Australian generation and New Zealand irrigation initiatives, Z Energy supply and terminal assets and development of alternative fuels, Lumo’s customer growth, NZBus’ fleet upgrade, and Wellington Airport terminal development). + On-going review of Infratil’s assets, naturally including the possible exit from the two UK airports. + Continued focus for new acquisitions, to include opportunistic Australia/NZ quasi infrastructure, and measured entry into selected early stage developments in energy, transport, and social infrastructure. + Minimisation of bank debt and maintenance of long term bond funding. After the sale of 30% of Z Energy Infratil updated its 2014 financial year guidance. The sale is expected to reduce EBITDAF by about $20 million (the range has shifted from $520-$560m to $500-$540m), but operating cash flow is actually expected to lift by about $50 million (the range has shifted from $250-$280m to $300-$320m). The cash flow measure does not include the sale proceeds. Less salutary news was the announcement that CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere has now reached the level of 400 parts per million, an approximate 40% increase since 1800. Coincidentally the Office of the Chief Science Advisor to the Prime Minister released a report on the likely substantial costs and risks for New Zealand from global warming. Perhaps not so coincidentally Climate Change Minister Tim Groser announced that New Zealand has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below the 1990 levels by 2020, a more ambitious target than New Zealand’s first Kyoto Protocol period commitment. TrustPower Return to Top TrustPower’s annual meeting included a strongly expressed statement by Chairman Dr Bruce Harker on the proposal to replace New Zealand’s wholesale electricity market with a government department to acquire all generation at government specified prices. Since it was established in the early 1990’s the New Zealand generation market has been extremely effective at investing in new capacity and managing the change of fuels from hydro/coal to gas and more latterly wind/geothermal. If the market is left to function, electricity supply and demand forecasts indicate a period of lower energy prices. Work is progressing on the South Australian Snowtown II wind farm with all foundations completed and tower erection underway. Once the wind farm is commissioned it will contribute approximately a third of TrustPower’s annual generation output. TrustPower is investigating further wind development options in five Australian states. The Australian Government has recognised the serious implications of climate change and has committed to 20% of Australia’s electricity supply coming from renewable sources by 2020. Australia’s per capita emissions are among the highest in the world due to the reliance upon fossil fuels to generate electricity (more than 40% of Australia’s total primary energy supply is derived from coal). Retail competition remains intense in New Zealand, reflected by the 2012 VaasaETT World Energy Retail Market Rankings Report which ranked this market as the second most competitive in the world. TrustPower Quarterly June 2013 June 2012 March 2013 Operating Report Quarter Quarter Year Electricity customers 204,000 208,000 206,000 Telco customers 46,000 38,000 43,000 Mass market sales 406GWh 432GWh 1,613GWh Time of use sales 488GWh 541GWh 2,070GWh NZ hydro generation 433GWh 448GWh 1,692GWh NZ wind generation 146GWh 156GWh 638GWh Aust wind generation 85GWh 89GWh 386GWh Av. Spot price of NZ 8.3c/kwh 12.7c/kwh 8.6c/kwh electricity generated Av. Spot price of NZ 8.2c/kwh 13.5c/kwh 8.3c/kwh electricity purchased Infratil Energy Australia/Lumo Return to Top Australian residential electricity prices have risen almost 50% over the last three years as network charges have increased due to the replacement of ageing assets with ‘gold- plated’ refurbishments intended to accommodate higher peak demand and shifting supply sources. The International Energy Agency figures graphed below show how Australian residential prices have shifted over the last two decades. Measured in NZ$ the recent increase, up to the end of 2012, has been even more dramatic due to the fall in the value of the NZ$ against the A$. Since 2009 residential prices in Australia are up over 8.5c/kwh in Australian dollars or 11.5c/kwh in NZ$. Australian Average Residential Electricity Prices NZ$ A$ c/kwh (Actual and shown in NZ$ at the relevant exchange rate) c/kwh 40.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 30.0. 30.0. 25.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Au Household nominal NZ$ (LHS Axis) Au Household nominal NZ$ (RHS Axis) Recent surveys show that many households are having difficulty paying their bills because of the higher cost, however the latest Australian Energy Market Commission Pricing Trends Report indicates that residential prices are now expected to stabilise. Further network and environmental (i.e. carbon) price rises are not expected and wholesale electricity prices should be held down by increasing supply and flat demand. Higher gas prices which are expected as LNG exports come on-line could become an influence later in the period. The chart below shows how the National Electricity Market states’ residential electricity prices have risen since 2011 and the forecast for 2015 (all prices in A$). c/kwh (nominal) 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 QLD NSW VIC SA National Note: The National average included all the States and Territories within Australia However, the possibility of political intervention following the federal election and the unpredictable nature of regulatory changes make forecasts, even for stable prices, problematic. Lumo continues to closely monitor the markets, adjusting its pricing and hedging to cover potential wholesale movements and to ensure customer offers are competitive and fair. Lumo customer numbers The reduction of door knocking as a way to attract customers is requiring an adjustment to marketing and sales strategies. It is expected that the impact of reducing use of door knocking on customer numbers and churn will become clearer by the end of the year. Customers Electricity Gas Total July 2012 320,541 139,296 459,837 March 2013 338,301 152,469 490,770 July 2013 339,274 155,526 494,800 Z Energy Return to Top On 19th August Z Energy was listed on the NZX and ASX with Infratil and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund each reducing their holdings from 50% to 20%, ie. in aggregate 60% of Z Energy was sold. The sale process appears to have been highly successful in determining a fair value for Z Energy and a healthy spread of ownership. At the post IPO share price of $3.75 Z Energy has an equity value of $1,500 million, about the same as Infratil, which makes the Company the 17th largest as measured by equity value listed on the NZX. The investor interest in Z Energy is in contrast to the opinions of many pundits in 2009 when NZ Super and Infratil announced the intended transaction. In the immediate aftermath of the GFC there was little enthusiasm for the acquisition and initially Infratil’s share price was marked down. Since Z Energy was purchased and restructured as a New Zealand company it has benefitted from increased investment and its excellent management team who have improved earnings. The demand for shares in the float also benefitted from the change in market sentiment. Infratil’s 50% stake in Z Energy cost $210 million. The net sale proceeds from selling 60% of this holding was slightly less than $400 million. As at 31 March 2013 Infratil’s book value for the 50% shareholding was $324 million. The cash proceeds and market value of the residual holding amount to $676 million (using a $3.50 share price). Z Energy’s surveys tell it that Z is now New Zealand’s preferred fuel retailer and has the third largest number of annual retail transactions of any company. It is important to remember that the Z Energy brand is only two years old. Even more remarkably, “Z” has become highly regarded despite taking over from “Shell” which is one of the world’s most well regarded companies and brands. While the “wrapper on the chocolate” deserves some credit, the excellent location of the service stations and the rigorous upgrade of services and facilities are playing a big part in Z Energy’s popularity. However, there is further room for improvement; Z Energy’s food and beverage does not yet receive consumers’ number one rating. NZ Bus Return to Top In both Auckland and Wellington material progress is being made with regional plans to improve urban mobility. In Wellington the Transport Agency and the Wellington City and Regional Councils have endorsed the development of bus rapid transit to link the Railway Station, Newtown and Kilbirnie. Coincidentally further commitment has been made to improve traffic flows with the construction of the Basin Reserve flyover and expansion of Mt Victoria’s tunnel capacity.