Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 115661-NE REPUBLIC OF NIGER PRIORITIES FOR ENDING POVERTY AND BOOSTING SHARED PROSPERITY Public Disclosure Authorized SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC November 28, 2017 Public Disclosure Authorized International Development Association Country Department AFCW3 Africa Region International Finance Corporation Sub-Saharan Africa Department Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Sub-Saharan Africa Department Public Disclosure Authorized REPUBLIC OF NIGER - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1–December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of October 2017) Currency Unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 556 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 3N Nigériens Nourrissent les Nigériens, Nigeriens feed Nigeriens ARMP Agence de Régulation des Marchés Publics, Public Procurement Agency ARSM L'Agence de Régulation du Secteur de la Microfinance, The Microfinance Sector Regulatory Agency BAGRI Banque Agricole du Niger, Agricultural Bank of Niger BCEAO La Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, Central Bank of the States of West Africa BCG Bacillus Calmette-Guérin BRACED Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters CAFER Caisse Autonome de Financement de l'Entretien Routier, Road Maintenance Fund of Niger CAIMA La Centrale d'Approvisionnement en Intrants et Matériels Agricoles, Central Supply of Inputs and Agricultural Materials CDV Contract Development and Verification CFAF Franc de Communauté Financière Africaine, Franc of the African Financial Community CGE Computable General Equilibrium CNECDD Comité National Consultatif pour l'Environnement et le Développement Durable, National Advisory Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation COFO Commission foncière, Land Commission CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment DGTPC Direction générale du trésor et de la comptabilité publique, General Directorate of the Treasury and Public Accounting DHS Demographic and Health Survey DPT Diphtheria, Pertussis, and Tetanus ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EDSN-MICS Enquête. Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs. Multiples du Niger, Niger’s Demographic and Health Survey with Multiple Indicators EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative EIU Economist Intelligence Unit ENBC Enquête Nationale sur le Budget et la Consommation des Ménages, National Household Budget and Consumption Survey i ENISED Etude Nationale d’Evaluation d’Indicateurs Socio-Economiques et Démographiques, National Survey of Socioeconomic and Demographic Indicators FIMA Festival international de la mode africaine, African Fashion International Festival FINDEX Financial Inclusion Index GDP Gross Domestic Product HH Household HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association ID4D Identification for Development Initiative IFC International Finance Corporation IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IMF International Monetary Fund INS Institut National de la Statistique, National Statistical Institute IRIN Integrated Regional Information Networks ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management ITU International Telecommunication Union LASDEL Laboratoire D'études Et Recherches Sur Les Dynamiques Sociales Et Le Développement Local, Laboratory of Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Local Development LINKAGE World Bank’s Global Dynamic CGE Model LSMS-ISA Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture LUCC Land-Use and Land-Cover Change MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MINUSMA United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MOH Ministry of Health NIGELEC Société Nigerienne d'Electricité, Electricity Company of Niger NGO Nongovernmental Organization OLS Ordinary Least Quares ONAHA Office National des Aménagements Hydro agricoles, National Hydro Agricultural Development Office OPVN Office des produits vivriers, Office of Food Products PASEC Programme d’Analyse des Systèmes Educatifs de la CONFEMEN, Program Analysis of the CONFEMEN Education Systems PDES Plan de Développement Economique and Social, Economic and Social Development Plan PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PER Public Expenditure Review PBF Performance Based Financing PFM Public Financial Management ii PIMA Public Investment Management Assessment PPP Purchasing Power Parity PNDS Parti Nigerien pour la Democratie et le Socialisme, Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism QUIBB Questionnaire Unifié des Indicateurs de Base de Bien-être, Unified Questionnaire of Basic Indicators of Well-being RESEN Rapport d’Etat du Système Educatif Nigérien, State Report of the Nigerian Educational System SAM Social Accounting Matrix SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDDEL Stratégie de Développement Durable de l’Elevage, Sustainable Livestock Development Strategy SDI Service Delivery Indicator SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience Niger SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TFP Total Factor Productivity TOR Terms of Reference TVA La taxe sur la valeur ajoutée, Value Added Tax UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID U. S. Agency for International Development UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WDI World Development Indicators WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WRI World Resource Institute IDA IFC MIGA Vice President: Makhtar Diop Dimitris Tsisiragos Keiko Honda Director: Soukeyna Kane Vera Songwe Merli Baroudi Manager: Andrew Dabalen Ronke-Amoni Ogunsilire Dan Biller Task Team Leaders: Johannes Hoogeveen; Frank Douamba Conor Healy Aly Sanoh; Luc Razafimandimby iii TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ ix 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Poverty, Risks and Vulnerability ....................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Poverty and Poverty Trends ........................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Poverty Profile ............................................................................................................................. 12 2.3 Risks and Vulnerability ............................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Poverty Traps ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.5 Climate Change ........................................................................................................................... 19 3. Human Capital ................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................. 23 3.2 Health ........................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 Education ..................................................................................................................................... 30 4. Economy and Opportunities for Growth ........................................................................................ 36 4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................. 36 4.2 Sources of Growth ....................................................................................................................... 38 4.3 Behind the Headline Numbers ..................................................................................................... 42 4.4 Policy Simulations ....................................................................................................................... 47 5. Governance ......................................................................................................................................... 50 5.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................. 50 5.2 Niger’s Political Settlement ......................................................................................................... 52 5.3 Consequences of the Political Settlement .................................................................................... 56 5.4 The Challenge of Reform ............................................................................................................ 59 6. Identifying and Prioritizing Pathways