Coping with the challenges of a bleak outlook Two thousand and nine has witnessed the darkest New oil futures as financial assets and increasing activity on futures Year for the global economy for at least a generation. markets by huge amounts, and then rapidly pulling out when Commentary Indeed, parallels are being drawn increasingly with the the tide changed across the poorly regulated global financial Great Depression of 1929 and the early 1930s. Let us sector. hope that these extreme concerns turn out to be mis- As OPEC’s Secretary General, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, told placed. the London meeting of energy ministers in December 2008, Nevertheless, the widespread pessimism is easily there is now a sense of urgency to improve transparency and understood, in the light of the malaise that has affected regulation in the world’s financial markets. The hijacking of the industry, trade and commerce over the past half year, oil-price mechanism by unruly, greedy elements of the financial highlighted by the crisis in the world financial sector, the community can never be allowed to happen again. onset of recession in many countries, bankruptcies, fall- Thus, as we settle uneasily into 2009, we do so with appre- ing house prices, car industries on the verge of collapse, hension about what awaits the oil industry during the year, at a rising unemployment, shelved or abandoned investment time of much uncertainty about the market outlook and growing plans — and the pervasive feeling that the worst is yet to retrenchment in expenditure and resources across the board. come. The dark cloud that hangs over the world economy is ex- Much midnight oil has been burnt, as desperate gov- pected to continue having a dampening effect on oil demand ernments — individually and collectively — wrestle with this year. This, in turn, may put added downward pressure on the deteriorating situation, as it expands globally, to at oil prices, at a time when they are at about half the levels con- least limit the damage in the near term, while accepting sidered necessary to support investment in future production that more solid and durable measures are needed for the capacity. In short, sustained low oil prices today may mean longer term. volatile high prices not too far in the future. Importantly, attitudes are changing, with Keynesian There are no easy paths to follow, in handling the present interventionalist policies for stimulating faltering econ- situation, for parties like OPEC, which remain committed to omies being favoured increasingly over the free mar- sustained order and stability in a balanced, equitable interna- ket monetarist approach, which has been so prevalent tional oil market, as well as the need for reasonable financial in industrialized countries over the past quarter of a returns for its Member Countries, as would be expected for the century. owner of any economic resource. The outlook for the international oil market in 2009 Prioritizing is necessary. This is why, after careful and and beyond is governed, to a great extent, by these events repeated consideration, backed-up by sound research, the on the global economic stage. Organization continues to focus on achieving sound market However, things cannot get much worse for the mar- fundamentals, with secure, steady and adequate supply both ket than they were in 2008, with the price of OPEC’s today and in the future. This means, among other things, trying Reference Basket falling by around $107/barrel in the to handle, with vision, fairness and sustainability, the serious second part of the year, after rising by nearly $50/b in discrepancy between spot prices and the required investment- the first part. Indeed, record levels were reached in supportive prices of crude. early July. The unyielding volatility, which saw daily Nevertheless, despite this bleak start to the year, we swings of as much as $16/b, was disturbing, disruptive remain confident about the ability of the oil industry to rise to and damaging for everything from day-to-day business the new challenges facing it, in support of an early return to to the investment that is so vital to the future of the sound world economic growth and the general enhancement of industry. mankind. And here, we once again call upon the steadfast com- As is well known, the main reason for that unaccept- mitment of all parties in the market, to join OPEC in its efforts ably high level of volatility was speculators treating crude to achieve lasting order and stability. Conference Notes 4 151st (Extraordinary) Conference President Bouteflika (p18) Contents Webcast interviews (p22) The sights and sounds of Algeria (p26) Feature 30 Algeria’s In Salah Gas — pioneering the future of carbon sequestration Meeting Report 38 Exhibition 40 London energy talks look at Reuters causes of oil price volatility Iraq puts on a show … to help secure Interview 44 its oil future IEF reflections on the gas forum Publishers OPEC Membership and aims Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental Obere Donaustrasse 93 Organization, established in Baghdad, on September 1020 Vienna, Austria 10—14, 1960, by IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia Telephone: +43 1 211 12/0 and Venezuela. Its objective — to coordinate Telefax: +43 1 216 4320 and unify petroleum policies among its Member Contact: Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices OPEC bulletin OPEC The Editor-in-Chief, OPEC Bulletin for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and Fax: +43 1 214 9827 regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; E-mail: [email protected] and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry. The Organization comprises 12 Members: Cover Web site: www.opec.org Qatar joined in 1961; SP Libyan AJ (1962); United A gas separation unit at the In Salah carbon sequestration plant, Algeria (see feature on p30). Visit the OPEC Web site for the latest news and infor- Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi, 1967); Algeria (1969); Photo: Diana Golpashin. mation about the Organization and back issues of the Nigeria (1971); Angola (2007). Ecuador joined OPEC OPEC Bulletin which are also available free of charge in 1973, suspended its Membership in 1992, and in PDF format. rejoined in 2007. Gabon joined in 1975 and left in 1995. Indonesia joined in 1962 and suspended its Vol XXXX, No 1, January 2009, ISSN 0474–6279 Hard copy subscription: $70/year Membership on December 31, 2008. Appointments 50 Lukman appointed Nigerian Petroleum Minister Kuwait appoints Acting Oil Minister Barkindo new OPEC Governor, Head of NNPC Arts & Life 52 Austrian artist ... Book Review 56 Nigerian priestess The intrepid Newsline 58 Wanda Jablonski News update from OPEC Member Countries OPEC Fund News 60 Market Review 66 OFID support helps development of vast Noticeboard 86 river system Vacancy Announcements 87 OPEC Publications 88 Secretariat officials Contributions Editorial staff Secretary General The OPEC Bulletin welcomes original contributions on Editor-in-Chief Abdalla Salem El-Badri the technical, financial and environmental aspects Dr Omar Farouk Ibrahim Editorial Coordinator Director, Research Division of all stages of the energy industry, research reports Ulunma Angela Agoawike Dr Hasan M Qabazard and project descriptions with supporting illustrations Editor Head, Energy Studies Department and photographs. Jerry Haylins Mohamed Hamel Associate Editors Head, PR & Information Department Keith Aylward-Marchant, James Griffin, Editorial policy Dr Omar Farouk Ibrahim Alvino-Mario Fantini, Steve Hughes The OPEC Bulletin is published by the PR & Informa- Arts & Life Contributor Head, Petroleum Studies Department tion Department. The contents do not necessar- Siham Alawami Mohammad Alipour-Jeddi ily reflect the official views of OPEC nor its Member Production General Legal Counsel Diana Lavnick and Andrea Birnbach Dr Ibibia Lucky Worika Countries. Names and boundaries on any maps Design & Layout Head, Data Services Department should not be regarded as authoritative. No respon- Elfi Plakolm Fuad Al-Zayer sibility is taken for claims or contents of advertise- Photographs (unless otherwise credited) Diana Golpashin Head, Finance & Human Resources Department ments. Editorial material may be freely reproduced Alejandro Rodriguez (unless copyrighted), crediting the OPEC Bulletin Head, Office of the Secretary General as the source. A copy to the Editor would be Abdullah Al-Shameri appreciated. Indexed and abstracted in PAIS International Printed in Austria by Ueberreuter Print GmbH Oran hosts 151st OPEC Conference by Angela Ulumna Agoawike Conference Notes Conference The Meeting did not deviate from what has become the Ministers began to converge on Oran — there was OPEC’s established style for Extraordinary meetings going to be a production cut — one steep enough to bring — a one agenda gathering focusing on the state of the about stability, but without harming the market. oil market which, in recent times, has witnessed a high But before the Conference proper, there were formali- level of volatility. ties to be taken care of: a welcome reception at the air- There was tremendous build-up to the Conference port for each Head of Delegation; and a formal welcome and the market eagerly awaited the decision. Even with dinner hosted by the Conference President, Algeria’s the heightened expectations, one thing was clear before Energy and Mines Minister, Dr Chakib Khelil at the OPEC OPEC OPEC bulletin bulletin 1/09 1/09 4 Left: President of the Republic of Algeria, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, addressing delegates to the 151st (Extraordinary) Conference. towering Mediterranean seaside Sheraton Hotel and Towers Oran. Welcoming the Ministers to Algeria, President of the Republic of Algeria, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, said his coun- try was pleased to host its second OPEC Extraordinary Conference in four years. He noted that the Meeting was being held at a time when the world’s econ- omy was rife with uncertainty, a development which would reflect very strongly on the economies of OPEC Member Countries in both the short- and mid-terms.