Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1995-03 Exploring the dynamics of the Yugoslav crisis Moller, Gerald Axel Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/35038 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS by Gerald Axel Möller March 1995 Thesis Co-Advisors: Donald Abenheim David Yost Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DnS «flJAlJT* INSPECTED B 19950615 033 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) WashingtonDC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 23, 1995. Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS (Security classification: unclassified) 6. AUTHOR Gerald Axel Möller 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONNAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (173 words) This thesis explores the dynamics of the Yugoslav conflict. Three factors stand out as especially important: ethnic nationalism, economic dislocation, and changes in the international security environment. Ethnic nationalism has been manifest in the competition for territory and political dominance among the Serbs, Croats, Bosnian Muslims, and others. This ethnic nationalism has centuries-old roots, but came to the fore in the 1980s, owing to the death of Tito in 1980 and the economic setbacks of the 1980s, which led to a search for scapegoats and intensified inter-ethnic mistrust and rivalry. The most important change in the security environment was the collapse of the Soviet Union, which helped to precipitate the conflict in the former Yugoslavia. The Soviet threat was no longer present to unify the component nationalities of the Yugoslav federation and to oblige them to cooperate. The Yugoslav conflict may spread unless international security institutions such as NATO and the United Nations can devise solutions. Their failure in this effort to contain and resolve the conflict could set a dangerous example. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Yugoslavia, Bosnia, ethnic nationalism, international security organizations, PAGES 219 collective security organizations, United Nations, Western European Union, Soviet 16. PRICE CODE Union, Russia, Balkans. 17. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 18. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 19. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 20. UMTTATTONOF CATION OF REPORT CATION OF THIS PAGE CATION OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298-102 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS Gerald A. Möller Commander SG, German Navy B.S., German Armed Forces University Munich, 1980 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY \FFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 1995 Author: Approved by: Donald Abenheim/Thesis Co-Ad visor &ß9 David Yost, Thesis Co-Advisor \I «HSU'f£Ü^-l2! , oRÄ&x" Gf TAB a Jincuuoaa a tine at ion- Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairrr.vn Department of National Security Affairs'; ov \ niP'ributlca/ 111 iir.'; ,?..*, t^w»**.! IV ABSTRACT This thesis explores the dynamics of the Yugoslav conflict. Three factors stand out as especially important: ethnic nationalism, economic dislocation, and changes in the international security environment. Ethnic nationalism has been manifest in the competition for territory and political dominance among the Serbs, Croats, Bosnian Muslims, and others. This ethnic nationalism has centuries-old roots, but came to the fore in the 1980s, owing to the death of Tito in 1980 and the economic setbacks of the 1980s, which led to a search for scapegoats and intensified inter-ethnic mistrust and rivalry. The most important change in the security environment was the collapse of the Soviet Union, which helped to precipitate the conflict in the former Yugoslavia. The Soviet threat was no longer present to unify the component nationalities of the Yugoslav federation and to oblige them to cooperate. The Yugoslav conflict may spread unless international security institutions such as NATO and the United Nations can devise solutions. Their failure in this effort to contain and resolve the conflict could set a dangerous example. VI ZUSAMMENFASSUNG (ABSTRACT) Diese Diplomarbeit erkundet die Dynamik der Krise in Jugoslawien. Drei herausragende Ereignisse stehen hervor und sind besonders bedeutend: ethnisch verankerter Nationalismus, ökomischer Niedergang und die Veränderungen im Feld der international Sicherheitspolitik. Ethnisch verankerter Nationalismus wurde manifest beim Wettstreit um Landbesitz und politische Vorherrschaft unter den Serben, Kroaten, Bosniens Moslems und anderen. Ethnisch verankerter Nationalismus hat jahrhundertalte Wurzeln und kam erneut zum Vorschein in den Jahren nach 1980, zum einen Teil, weil Tito im Jahre 1980 starb, zum anderen Teil auf Grund der ökonomischen Mißwirtschaft der achtziger Jahre. Dies führte zur Suche nach Sündenböcken und verstärkte Mißgunst und Rivalität zwischen den Bevölkerungsgruppen. Die bedeutendste Veränderungen im Feld der international Sicherheitspolitik war der Zusammenbruch der Sowjet Union, welcher half, den Konflikt in ehemaligen Jugoslawien zu beschleunigen. Die Bedrohung durch die Sowiets stand nicht länger zur Verfügung, um die zusammengesetzten Nationalitäten der Jugoslawischen Föderation zu vereinen, und sie zur Zusammenarbeit zu verpflichten. Der Konflikt in Jugoslawien kann sich ausbreiten, wenn nicht internationale Sicherheits-Organisationen wie NATO und die Vereinten Nationen Lösungen formulieren können. Ihr Versagen beim Bemühen den Konflikt einzugrenzen und zu lösen könnte ein gefährliches Beispiel setzen. Vll vm TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION: WHY AND HOW TO EXPLORE THE DYNAMICS OF THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS 1 A. IMPORTANCE AND RELEVANCE 1 B. METHODOLOGY AND THEORDES 2 1. Ethnic Nationalism 2 2. Economic Decline and Dislocation 4 3. Changes in the External Security Environment 6 C. THE BALKAN REGION 7 D. HISTORIC OVERVIEW ON YUGOSLAVIA 9 E. PURPOSE AND PLAN 13 H. HISTORY OF THE BALKANS 15 A. BALKAN POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY AND HISTORY 15 1. Unbroken Continuity: Geography 15 2. Discontinuity in Political Geography 16 B. HISTORY OF THE BALKANS 400 - 1826 17 1. History of the Balkans 400 - 1453: From the Barbaric Migration to the Early Middle-Ages 18 2. History of the Balkans: Rise of Islam 1389 - 1453 21 3. The Rise of the Ottomans: Defeat of Christianity at the Two Kosovos, 1389 and 1448 22 4. Consolidation and Decline of the Ottomans 23 5. Russia Reviving the Muslim-Christen Antagonism 24 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Defending Christian Europe 25 C. IDEAS ABOUT EUROPE IN COMPETITION 25 1. The Habsburg Idea: Europe United by Catholicism 25 IX 2. The French Idea: Liberate Europe Along National Self- Determination 26 3. Vienna 1815: Preserving Privileged Positions 27 4. Post-March 1848: Restoring the Eroding Power-System ... 28 D. HISTORY OF THE BALKANS 1826 - 1914 28 1. Prelude: Post-Vienna Serbia Enters the Scene 29 2. The Decline of Habsburg-Austria: Crimean War 1856 .... 30 3. Pursuing the Great-Serbian Dream: the Ottoman Retreat . 31 4. The Russian Fear of Pan-Slavism and the Austro- Hungarian Design 32 5. Correcting Serbia's Dynastic Successions for The Great Serbia 33 6. The Bosnian Annexion Crisis 1908 to 1909 34 7. The Balkan Confederation and the End of the First Balkan War 1913 36 8. Albania and Austria-Hungary Limit the Great Serbian Dream 37 9. Conclusions on Serbia, the Balkans and the Great Powers . 38 E. HISTORY OF THE SOUTHERN SLAV STATE, EUROPE AND THE BALKANS, 1914 - 1945 41 1. The First World War 41 2. The Decline of the Versailles Treaty 1919 - 1939 42 3. The Second World War 44 4. Conclusions on Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union and Germany 46 HI. FROM YUGOSLAV CIVIL WAR TO TITO'S HERITAGE 49 A. PRELUDE 49 x B. INTER-WAR YUGOSLAVIA: THE AFTERMATH OF VERSAILLES 51 1. Tito's Biography Before 1927 55 2. Tito's Ascent to Power 58 C. THE SECOND WORLD WAR: CIVIL-WAR YUGOSLAVIA ... 61 1. Disinformation by Communist Spies 65 D. CONSOLIDATING TITO'S POWER , . 67 1. Solving the National Question by Creating the Myth of the Heroic Partisans 68 2. Purpose and Reality of 33 Fabricated Axis Divisions 69 E. CREATING TTTOISM 70 1. Pushing Communism Too Fast: Dropped by the U.S.S.R. 71 2. Western