East Coast and Gulf Coast Transportation Fuels Markets A report prepared by ICF International for EIA February 2016 Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Department of Energy www.eia.gov Washington, DC 20585 February 2016 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by ICF International for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) under the general guidance of Lynn Westfall, Director of Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis. Information concerning the content of this report may be obtained from Hannah Breul ([email protected]). Principal contributors from ICF International are Kevin DeCorla-Souza, Matt Gilstrap, and CeCe Coffey. This report was prepared for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies. ICF International, LLC for EIA | PADDs 1 and 3 Transportation Fuels Markets i February 2016 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................ i Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... ii Tables ............................................................................................................................................................ v Figures .......................................................................................................................................................... vi Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Sub-PADD regions ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Supply/demand balances .......................................................................................................................... 9 Refineries ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 13 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 19 Fuel specifications ................................................................................................................................... 20 Gasoline market structure ...................................................................................................................... 24 New England ............................................................................................................................................... 26 Supply/demand balances ........................................................................................................................ 26 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 31 Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 34 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 35 Retail markets ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Future changes ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Central Atlantic ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Supply/demand balances ........................................................................................................................ 39 Refineries ................................................................................................................................................ 44 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 47 Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 52 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 54 Retail markets ......................................................................................................................................... 55 Future Changes ....................................................................................................................................... 56 ICF International, LLC for EIA | PADDs 1 and 3 Transportation Fuels Markets ii February 2016 Southeast .................................................................................................................................................... 58 Supply/demand balances ........................................................................................................................ 59 Refineries ................................................................................................................................................ 62 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 63 Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 66 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 67 Retail markets ......................................................................................................................................... 68 Future changes ........................................................................................................................................ 69 Florida ......................................................................................................................................................... 70 Supply/demand balances ........................................................................................................................ 70 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 74 Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 76 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 78 Retail markets ......................................................................................................................................... 79 Future changes ........................................................................................................................................ 79 Texas Gulf Coast .......................................................................................................................................... 81 Supply/demand balances ........................................................................................................................ 81 Refineries ................................................................................................................................................ 85 Supply and logistics ................................................................................................................................. 87 Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 90 Supply vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 92 Retail markets ......................................................................................................................................... 93 Future changes ........................................................................................................................................ 94 Texas Inland ...............................................................................................................................................