POST-DISASTER ROYAL COMMISSIONS: LESSON-LEARNING AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RECOMMENDATIONS by Heath Whiley BA (Hons) School of Social Sciences Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Tasmania June 2017 DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in this thesis, and to the best of my knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgment is made in the text of this thesis, nor does this thesis contain any material that infringes copyright Heath Whiley 29th June 2017 ii AUTHORITY OF ACCESS This thesis may be made available for loan and limited copying and communication in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. iii ABSTRACT Australia’s continued adoption of post-disaster inquiries, specifically royal commissions to investigate and evaluate preparedness, responses and the aftermath of catastrophic disasters suggests it is an appropriate tool for identifying lessons and learning opportunities that mitigate their future impacts. Critiques of the approach question the ability for post-disaster inquiries to create lessons that mitigate future impacts of disasters, and to improve responses, and preparedness through the implementation of their recommendations and findings. Three case studies are used to understand how post-disaster inquiries undertake their investigation: the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the 2010-11 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, and the 2010-11 Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission. This thesis uses these cases to comparatively analyse and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of royal commissions as a tool for lesson-learning from a disaster. Throughout its analysis of these cases, this thesis focuses on decision-making throughout their establishment, investigation, and post-investigation stages. It looks at how the impacts of these decisions affect an inquiry’s outcomes, notably through the implementation of its recommendations. This thesis concludes by reaffirming the continued usefulness of post-disaster royal commissions. It highlights that changes to the way we think about and undertake these will make them more effective, appropriate, and useful for ensuring implementation of lessons that mitigate the impact of future disasters. Key to this is considering the establishment, investigation, and post-investigation stages of a post-disaster inquiry as part of one process, where responsibility for the implementation, evaluation, and consideration of recommendations is made throughout. This thesis develops a series of recommendations to improve the effectiveness, operation, and outcomes of post-disaster royal commissions. It is argued that central to this is viewing post-disaster inquiries as part of a wider process of disaster policy development, where the focus is on the disaster type, rather than a specific event. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank all the people who have helped me get to this stage of my academic life, but especially the academics of the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Tasmania, whose collegiality and advice was always forthcoming. More specifically I would like to thank: Professor Aynsley Kellow, who supervised this project from beginning to completion. Your clear, persuasive, and most importantly helpful guidance throughout the entire process helped make this thesis what it is. Thank you for the regular meetings, endless hot drinks, and for reminding me that a world existed beyond this thesis. Dr. Hannah Murphy-Gregory, whose supervision, unwavering support, and invaluable suggestions have assisted with the development of ideas that are central to this thesis. Your answers to my often endless and probably trivial questions helped me feel at ease and assisted with making this a somewhat enjoyable experience. Thank you for your support in the preparation of this thesis, which has been most appreciated and has contributed to it being of a higher quality. To the various postgraduate students who I have shared an office space with over the last three years, thank you for enriching my candidature through your support and conversation. I hope, as you have done for me, that our collegiality has made your experience a better one. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my family and friends for their support in the production of this thesis and throughout my academic life, but also in life more generally. Your support and the lessons I have learned from you all have made this possible. I could not have fulfilled this dream without your constant encouragement and reassurance. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY ............................................................................................ II AUTHORITY OF ACCESS .............................................................................................................. III ABSTRACT .........................................................................................................................................IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................... V ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...........................................................................................IX CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Rationale for the study ....................................................................................................................... 16 Significance of the study ..................................................................................................................... 17 Research questions .............................................................................................................................. 18 Central aims of the study ................................................................................................................... 18 Overview of the study ......................................................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................... 22 Disasters and public policy ................................................................................................................. 22 Royal commissions: An overview of the literature........................................................................... 29 Policy literature ................................................................................................................................... 38 Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 49 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY: ASSESSING LESSON-LEARNING CAPABILITIES OF POST-DISASTER INQUIRIES ........................................................................................................ 56 Discussion of methodology ................................................................................................................. 57 The comparative case study method: research design ..................................................................... 60 Comparative case studies ................................................................................................................... 60 Research methods ............................................................................................................................... 64 vi Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 76 CHAPTER 4: CASE ONE: 2009 VICTORIAN BUSHFIRES ROYAL COMMISSION ............ 77 Bushfires in Australia: a snapshot ..................................................................................................... 77 2009 Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires ......................................................................................... 87 2009 Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission ..................................................................................... 97 Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 116 CHAPTER 5: CASE TWO: 2010-11 QUEENSLAND FLOODS COMMISSION OF INQUIRY ............................................................................................................................................................ 117 Floods in Australia: a snapshot........................................................................................................ 118 2010-11 Queensland Floods .............................................................................................................. 122 2010-11 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry ..................................................................... 128 Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 140 CHAPTER 6: CASE THREE: 2010-11