Turning Inaction into Action! Helping you to mitigate rising energy prices June 2018 Kevin Jackson – Lead Consultant Robin Preston – Sales Director Mark Winn – Lead Consultant Dan Hulme – Consultant Click to add footer What questions are we going to answer? How much has What are the non What are the commodity costs components of commodity gone going to be at your energy up since your your next bill? last renewal? renewal? How can you use your HHD What can you to identify reduction do next? opportunities? How can Inenco help you? Click to add footer Agenda How are we going to answer the questions? Click to add footer Your Energy Plan Click to add footer We combine technical and fundamental analysis What impacts your total cost of energy? Understanding commodity & non commodity June 2018 Kevin Jackson – Lead Consultant Click to add footer What makes up your energy bills? Commodity ~40% Commodity ~65% Transportation & Distribution ~25% Transportation & Distribution Taxes & Levies ~25% ~30% Taxes & Levies ~5% Supplier & Metering ~5% Supplier & Metering ~5% Click to add footer 6 What is ‘the energy market’ Ensure you have full access to the wholesale market and not just one platform or index Without a full view of all broker screens you can not identify true market value Click to add footer 7 The Inenco Cost of Inaction Report Click to add footer 8 Where are price increases coming from? Understanding commodity price increases June 2018 Robin Preston – Sales Director Click to add footer Historical energy market movements energy market Historical Elec - £/MWh Gas - pence/therm 100.00 110.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 Rough 01/10/2005 at Fire 01/02/2006 01/06/2006 Langaled Pipeline 01/10/2006 01/02/2007 01/06/2007 01/10/2007 Oil peaks 01/02/2008 $146 at 01/06/2008 01/10/2008 Recession 01/02/2009 Global Coldest Dec since 1890 01/06/2009 &Fukashima war Libya Gas (60/40 W/S) 01/10/2009 01/02/2010 01/06/2010 01/10/2010 Click to add footer add to Click 01/02/2011 01/06/2011 year 2 to falls Oil 01/10/2011 of low $89 Elec (50/50 W/S) 01/02/2012 01/06/2012 01/10/2012 01/02/2013 01/06/2013 01/10/2013 01/02/2014 01/06/2014 01/10/2014 01/02/2015 below $30 01/06/2015 falls Oil 01/10/2015 01/02/2016 storage fails 01/06/2016 Rough 01/10/2016 01/02/2017 01/06/2017 01/10/2017 Oil over over Oil 01/02/2018 $80 01/06/2018 10 Historical energy market energy Historical Elec - £/MWh Gas - pence/therm 100.00 110.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 01/10/2005 01/02/2006 01/06/2006 01/10/2006 Gas and Electricity commodity Chart 2005 2018 to 01/02/2007 +7% 01/06/2007 01/10/2007 year) each October 1st from contracts 12 month (Forward - 01/02/2008 15% 01/06/2008 01/10/2008 +107% 01/02/2009 01/06/2009 01/10/2009 - 01/02/2010 56% 01/06/2010 Elec (50/50 W/S) 01/10/2010 +12% 01/02/2011 Click to add footer add to Click 01/06/2011 01/10/2011 +28% 01/02/2012 01/06/2012 01/10/2012 - 01/02/2013 12% 01/06/2013 01/10/2013 01/02/2014 +3% 01/06/2014 01/10/2014 - 01/02/2015 6% 01/06/2015 01/10/2015 - 01/02/2016 16% 01/06/2016 01/10/2016 - 01/02/2017 3% 01/06/2017 01/10/2017 +10% 01/02/2018 01/06/2018 £50.49MWh Average 11 Market Price Drivers Macroeconomic Geopolitics Longer term QE Tapering Middle East LCPD/MCPD Rate Rises OPEC vs Market Shale Development Tariff Trade War Fundamentals Russia/Ukraine Technical LNG – Asian Demand Brexit LNG - US/AUS N. Korea Analysis Weather US vs everyone Market uptrend Storage still intact? Groningen Margins & renewable output Click to add footer 12 Crude Oil Click to add footer 13 Weather & storage Weather Forecast European Gas storage Click to add footer 14 An evolving generation mix Source: National Grid Future Energy Scenarios Click to add footer 15 Gas & Power Market Bullish Gas – W18 / S19 • The Yamal-Europe pipeline from Russia to Germany is due to undergo maintenance next week which will restrict supplies into Europe and reduce storage injections. • Carbon prices continue to move higher, providing support to the power curve. • Strengthening European coal prices are providing support to gas and power markets as transit issues disrupt supply - low Rhine river levels. • European LNG prices remain at a significant discount to Asian prices, limiting the number of cargoes heading towards the UK and NW Europe – there is only 1 cargo likely to arrive in the UK during July. • Annual maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany during the last two weeks in July will restrict supplies into Europe and reduce storage injections. Power – W18 / S19 • Forties pipeline maintenance and industrial action planned during early August will tighten UK supply significantly. Bearish • Strong supply into the UK, coupled with low demand and very few unplanned disruptions to supply could weigh on near curve prices. • European gas storage levels continue to improve, with markets becoming more confident that they will achieve comfortable levels ahead of the winter period. • Temperatures remain well above the seasonal norm, dampening demand and allowing storage facilities to inject. Click to add footer 16 Understanding the market We combine technical & fundamental analysis Technical Click to add footer 17 Technical analysis Candlesticks Fibonacci Retracement Bollinger Bands MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) 90%+ Decision Making Accuracy RSI (Relative Strength Index) Click to add footer 18 Market reports Click to add footer 19 Decision making Trading Triggers Fundamentals What are the current price drivers? Volatility & Technical Analysis Can we observe any trading patterns? Energy Risk Strategy What objectives or limits does the strategy impose? Judgement What do the Inenco STA/CISI qualified traders think? Click to add footer 20 20 So where next for prices? Backwardation Charts Gas – Winter’18 The backwardation could soon disappear if oil prices break the $80 per barrel resistance level. The main risks in oil markets are heavily influenced by geopolitics. There is the potential for a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East as Iran reacts to tightening US sanctions. If Iran blocks the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ or restarts its Nuclear enrichment program, there could be military conflict which is likely to push oil prices much higher. Click to add footer 21 Questions How much have commodity prices increased since your last renewal? www.inenco.comClick to add footer Practical - Commodity Increases How much have commodity prices increased since your last renewal? Click to add footer Practical - How much has commodity gone up? Click to add footer Practical - How much has commodity gone up? Click to add footer Practical - How much has commodity gone up? Start Finish Click to add footer Practical - How much has commodity gone up? Click to add footer Practical - How much has commodity gone up? Increase 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Upto 10% Upto 20% Upto 30% Lets have a show of hands Click to add footer Where are price increases coming from? Understanding non commodity price increases June 2018 Mark Winn – Lead Consultant Click to add footer Non commodity increases Commodity ~40% Transportation & Distribution ~25% Taxes & Levies ~30% Supplier Margin & Metering ~5% Click to add footer 30 How has this changed? 2005 70.0% 22.0% 8.0% ~ The wholesale energy proportion of 2011 60.0% 28.0% 12.0% your costs have been shrinking year on year due to higher non commodity 2012 55.0% 30.0% 15.0% charges being implemented and imposed. 2013 52.0% 31.3% 16.7% 2014 49.5% 32.6% 17.9% System & Network charges have risen previously but have since stabilised 2015 48.6% 31.4% 20.0% 2016 46.4% 31.1% 22.6% Taxes & Levies continue to increase year 2017 45.2% 30.3% 24.5% on year as the government has a target of £110bn to raise by 2020 2018 42.3% 30.0% 27.7% 2019 40.7% 29.8% 29.5% 2020 39.6% 30.0% 30.4% Wholesale Supplier System & Network Taxes & Levies Middle estimates have been used for future years Click to add footer 31 What are you paying for? 2018 Metering, 0% Margin and Imbalance, 2% RO, 11% Energy Capacity Market, 4% Carbon Floor Price D and T Losses FIT, 4% Energy, 43% BSUOS DUOS FIT CFD, 4% TNUOS Elexon AAEHDC, 0% AAEHDC Elexon, 0% FIT CFD FIT TNUOS, 7% Capacity Market RO Metering Margin and Imbalance DUOS, 16% Carbon Floor Price, 4% BSUOS, 2% D and T Losses, 3% Click to add footer 32 Renewable obligation and Contracts for difference •Supports large-scale renewables projects •Obligation to source an increasing proportion of electricity from renewables •Closed to new entrants on 31st March 2017. •Offers a steady, predictable revenue for providers who deliver energy at times of system stress, or face penalties •Capacity Auctions are held four years ahead of delivery •First Auction took was Dec 2014, for delivery in Oct 2018. Click to add footer 33 Capacity market Click to add footer 34 TNUoS charges The Grid needs to be maintained & modernised. Uncertainty of charges beyond 2020 A summer consultation will consider whether charging methodology should change in 2020 Awaiting update on current National Grid forecast (above).