PARTY VOTING IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: THE UNITED STATES, TAIWAN, AND JAPAN DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Chia-Hung Tsai, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2003 Doctor’s Examination Committee: Dr. Herbert F. Weisberg, Adviser Approved by Dr. Paul A. Beck Dr. Jakub Zielinski __________________________ Adviser Department of Political Science ABSTRACT The purpose of this dissertation is to study the effects of political institutions on party voting. My hypotheses are that multi-member districts with presidential systems like Taiwan will generate the lowest level of party voting and that single- member districts with parliamentary systems like Japan after 1994 will generate the highest level of party voting. Multi-member districts with parliamentary systems like Japan before 1994 and single-member districts with presidential systems like the U.S. will lie between the two extremes. I analyze survey data for these four cases to test these hypotheses. Chapter 3 contains the analysis of congressional voting behavior in the United States. Using 1990 and 1998 data, I generate multi-nomial logit estimates to compare the relative influence of partisanship and candidate evaluations. The result shows that the effects of candidate evaluations and partisanship are nearly even across the two elections, and that incumbency status is also critical to the voting act. Chapter 4 is devoted to the analysis of voting behavior in Taiwan. The elections in 1992 and 1995 are examined to display the candidate-based voting behavior under multi-member districts with presidential system. It is found, however, that party voting still prevailed in Taiwan at that time, although the influence of candidate evaluations increased during the period. ii Chapter 5 looks at the Japanese voting pattern in 1976 and 1996. According to the estimates generated by the multi-nomial logit model, the 1994 electoral reform indeed increased the relative influence of party labels. In other words, the small-sized district system contributes to party-based voting behavior. Chapter 6 pools the 1998 U.S. data, 1995 Taiwan data, 1976 and 1996 Japan data and estimates the effect of candidate evaluations and partisanship controlling for the election system and government structure variables. By rescoring the value of the system-level variables, the multi-nomial logit model presents the main effect of the two explanatory variables. Partisanship remains critical to Taiwanese voting behavior, and candidate-centered pattern has been declining in Japan. The results are compatible with the individual case studies in the preceding chapters. Thus, political institutions have an impact on individual voting behavior. The deviation of Taiwan calls attention to the factor of culture and other features of political systems. iii Dedicated to my parents iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Since the first day I stepped in the Department of Political Science, all of the faculty and staffs here have facilitated my study wholeheartedly. The department has also provided me with financial aid for four years. As an international student in American politics, I am very thankful to this program’s demanding training. My greatest gratitude is to my adviser, Dr. Herbert Weisberg, for his intellectual inspiration and great patience in instructing this research and correcting my grammatical errors. Without his support, I would have not gone this far to complete this dissertation. I am also grateful to the other two dissertation committee members-- Dr. Paul A. Beck and Dr. Jakub Zielinski--for their suggestions to the early draft of this dissertation. I also appreciate the Center for Survey Research at Ohio State for its outstanding research environment and two-year extensive training on survey research. My classmates made my life in and out of the classroom very interesting. My friends at Columbus and other cities have enriched my life too, especially Chia-wei, Gary, Yung-ming, Hiro, Kana, and Yu-chi. I would like to thank them all. The Japan data and part of the American data is purchased with the research grant provided by “Program for the Enhancement of Graduate Studies”. The Taiwan data is provided by the Election Study Center at National Cheng-chi University. I am alone responsible for the interpretation of data herein. v VITA August 3, 1971……………………………………….Born – Tainan, Taiwan 1993…………………..…B.A. Political Science, National Taiwan University 1996………………..…M.A. Political Science, National Cheng-chi University 1999-present………….…Graduate Research Associate, Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS Research Publications 1. Chia-hung Tsai, “The Categorical Analysis of the Social Context Position-A Case Study of the 1989 Legislative Election in the Second District of Taipei City” Journal of Electoral Studies 2,2: 171-203 (1995). 2. Chia-hung Tsai, “American Voter Responses to International Political Events and Economic Conditions: 1920-1996.” Euramerica, 30,3: 143-191 (2000). 3. Chia-hung Tsai, “House Party Leadership Selection: 1959-1994.” Soochow Journal of Political Science, 11:1-33 (2000). 4. Chia-hung Tsai, “Why Do Taiwanese Vote? ” Journal of Electoral Studies , 8,2:125-158 (2001). FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract……………………………………………………………………………ii Dedication……………………………………………………………………..…..iv Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………v Vita………………………………………………………………………………..vi LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES...........................................................................................xiv Chapters: 1. Political system, partisanship, and vote choice.............................................1 1.1 Introduction...........................................................................................1 1.2 The concept of partisanship and revisionist views..................................8 1.3 The assessment of party voting............................................................12 1.4 Summary and remarks.........................................................................14 2. A comparative perspective on party voting ................................................16 2.1 Origins and development of political parties........................................17 2.2 Review of comparative voting literature ..............................................21 2.3 A comparative framework of party voting ...........................................28 2.3.1 Election systems........................................................................32 2.3.2 Government structure ................................................................35 2.3.3 Typology of election and political systems ................................37 2.4 Context of four cases: the United States, Taiwan, and Japan................38 2.4.1 SMSP and presidential system: the United States.......................40 2.4.2 SNTV and presidential system: Taiwan .....................................41 2.4.3 SNTV and parliamentary system: Japan before 1994 .................43 2.4.4 SMSP and parliamentary system: Japan after 1994 ....................45 2.5 Determinants of party voting ...............................................................46 2.6 Plan of the dissertation ........................................................................48 3. American congressional voting behavior in 1990 and 1998........................50 3.1 Introduction.........................................................................................50 3.2 Incumbency and party competition......................................................53 vii 3.3 Candidate evaluations and party identification.....................................55 3.4 Data and variables ...............................................................................58 3.4.1 Data...........................................................................................58 3.4.2 Operationalization of variables ..................................................59 3.5 Party identification and candidate evaluations .....................................62 3.6 Party identification and issue positions ................................................70 3.7 Issue position and candidate evaluations..............................................74 3.8 Evaluation on national economy in congressional elections .................81 3.9 Party images in congressional elections...............................................82 3.10 Multi-nomial logit model of congressional voting behavior ...............87 3.10.1 Model......................................................................................87 3.10.2 Results.....................................................................................92 3.11 Conclusion ......................................................................................102 4. Taiwanese legislative voting behavior in 1992 and 1995..........................105 4.1 Introduction.......................................................................................105 4.2 Party system and the unification issue ...............................................107 4.3 Party system and the socio-economic equity issue .............................115 4.4 Party identification in taiwan.............................................................117 4.5 Candidate evaluations and vote choice...............................................127 4.6 Party