Hungary Country Strategy 2021-2026 Approved by the Board of Directors on 10 March 2021 PUBLIC Table of Contents and Glossary Glossary of Key Terms Table of Content ABI Annual Business Investment ICA Industry, Commerce & Executive Summary 3 ASB Advisory for Small Businesses Agribusiness BEEPS Business Environment and ICT Information and Communication Hungary – EBRD Snapshot 4 Enterprise Performance Survey Technologies I. Implementation of Previous Strategy – 2016- 5 CEB Central Europe and Baltics IDLO International Development Law 2019 CEE Central and Eastern Europe Organization CIT Corporate Income Tax IFC International Finance Corporation Key Transition Results Achieved during Previous 5 CVM Cooperation and Verification IFI International Financial Institution Strategy Period Mechanism ILO International Labour Organization Challenges to Implementation and Key Lessons 7 E&S Environmental and Social MFF Multiannual Financial Framework EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction MREL Minimum requirement for own II. Economic Context 8 and Development funds and eligible liabilities Macroeconomic Context and Outlook for Strategy 8 EC European Commission MSME Micro, Small and Medium Period EE Energy Efficiency Enterprise EIA Environmental Impact NBH National Bank of Hungary (Magyar Key Transition Challenges 9 Assessments Nemzeti Bank) EIB European Investment Bank NPL Non-Performing Loans III. Government Priorities and Stakeholder 11 EIF European Investment Fund ODA Official Development Assistance Engagement ESCO Energy service companies PPP Private-Public Partnership ESIA Environmental and Social Impact PR Performance Requirements IV. Defining EBRD’s Country Country Strategy 12 Assessment PTI Portfolio Transition Impact Priorities ESIF European Structural and R&D Research and Development V. Activities and Results Framework 13 Investment Fund SEE South-Eastern Europe ETI Expected Transition Impact SME Small and Medium Enterprise VI.Mapping of International Partners’ 15 EU European Union SOE State-Owned Enterprise Complementarity in EBRD Business Areas FDI Foreign Direct Investment SRSS Structural Reform Support Service FI Financial Institution TC Technical Cooperation VII. Implementation Risks and Environmental and 16 FX Foreign Exchange TFP Trade Finance Project Social Implications GDP Gross Domestic Product TPES Total primary energy supply GET Green Economy Transition VCIP Venture Capital Investment VIII. Donor Co-Financing Assessment 17 H&S Health & Safety Program HR Human Resources WB World Bank 20 Annex 1 – Political Assessment KPI Key Performance Indicator WEF World Economic Forum PUBLIC 2 Executive Summary Hungary’s commitment to and application of principles set out in Article 1 of the Agreement Establishing the Bank continued over the period since the previous Country Strategy approval, although some challenges remain. The latter include certain areas of governance and business environment. Judicial independence in Hungary has been raised by EU institutions as a source of concern, including in the Article 7 (1) Treaty on European Union procedure initiated by the European Parliament. Hungary is a country advanced in transition reforms, with a robust economy and shrinking transition gaps until early 2020. The country has benefited from considerable EU funding, an active EIB presence, soft loans, a highly liquid / competitive banking sector and a National Bank that is active in seeking to diversify sources of financing by developing local capital markets. In such an environment, it has become increasingly difficult for the Bank to remain additional and play a meaningful role in addressing primary challenges that limit the competitiveness of Hungarian businesses. Hungary is highly integrated into global value chains, and has been significantly impacted by COVID-19. The Bank will provide support for the recovery from COVID- 19 crisis as needed, as this may temporarily increase EBRD’s additionality during the strategy period, to be reviewed as a part of an extended Country Strategy Delivery Review for 2023. The Hungarian economy has demonstrated strong economic growth with substantial inward investment, record low borrowing costs and a growth in credit, which has supported private sector employment and consumption until Covid-19 caused deep recession in the second quarter of 2020. The economy is also strongly exposed to the economic outlook of the eurozone as the country has pursued an export led growth model dominated by the automobile industry. Tight labour market and significant real wage growth – both positive by themselves - may start to pose a challenge to cost competitiveness of the Hungarian economy. This challenge, acknowledged by the Government, needs to be met with further growth of productivity and improving resource allocation, lest it curtails the return to strong GDP growth experienced over recent years after the recovery from Covid-19 crisis. Hungary has been a significant beneficiary of EU Structural funds (EUR 25 bn over the 2014-20 period), which have undoubtedly played an important part in boosting the economy. Government debt has been steadily decreasing until the Covid-19 outbreak in mid-March 2020, which abruptly induced higher expenditures amid falling tax revenues, in 2019, it stood at 66.34% of GDP. In the coming period, it will be important for the Government to leverage EU funding more effectively, especially that linked to EU Post-Covid-19 Recovery Fund, and engage in co-financing with IFIs and the private sector. In view of the above, the EBRD’s approach during the next period will focus on those select areas where transition gaps remain and where the Bank can be additional, including in the efforts to overcome the impact of Covid-19. The Bank will continue to focus on developing capital markets and on opportunities to deploy equity and innovative investment products, and where appropriate seek to address inclusion and governance issues. There will be a clear focus on supporting projects in the areas of resource and energy efficiency, decarbonisation and renewable energy. The Bank will continue pursue cooperation with the authorities, including with the Ministry of Innovation & Technology on energy efficiency and the National Bank on green bonds and other green financial products, to identify projects of mutual interest where government support and co-financing (to the extent required) could be made available. The Bank will pursue the following strategic priority in Hungary during 2021-2026: • Support Productivity Improvements through Innovative Financing and Green Investments PUBLIC 3 Hungary - EBRD Snapshot EBRD Investment Activities in Country (as of year-end 2020) Country Context Figures Portfolio €702m Active projects 48 Hungary Comparators Czech Republic (10.7), Equity share 34% Operating assets €670m Population (million)3 9.8 Poland (38.0), 1 (2019) 2 Private Share1 100% Net cum. investment €3,203m Slovak Republic (5.5) GDP per capita (PPP, Czech Republic (42,575), Poland (34,217), ABI and Operations Portfolio Composition 3 USD) (2019) 33,979 Slovak Republic (34,177) 200 10 800 Global Competitiveness Czech Republic (32), 8 150 600 Index (WEF) (2019) 47 Poland (37), 6 (out of 141 economies) Slovak Republic (42) 100 400 4 Czech Republic (2.1), 50 Unemployment 2 200 3.5 Poland (3.3), Investments Investments (€m) 4 (%, 15-64) (2019) Slovak Republic (5.8) 0 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Youth unemployment Czech Republic (5.7), 4 ABI (left axis, €m) # of projects (right axis) ICA (%, LFS) (2019) Poland (8.1), Financial Institutions 11.0 share of youth not in employment, Sustainable Infrastructure Slovak Republic (10.3) education or training (NEET) Portfolio Dynamics Transition Gaps2 Female labour force Czech Republic (81.8), Competitive 800 200 10 participation 80.6 Poland (79.0), 147 8 (%, LFS, 25-54)4 (2019) Slovak Republic (79.6) 600 118 150 6 Well- 103 Integrated 4 Governed Czech Republic (0.2), 81 Energy intensity 400 64 100 2 Poland (0.2), 5 0.2 0 (TPES/GDP) (2017) Slovak Republic (0.2) 200 50 Investments (€m) Investments Czech Republic (0.4), 0 0 Resilient Green Emission intensity/GDP 0.3 Poland (0.5), 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5 (kgCO2/10’$) (2017) Slovak Republic (0.3) Portfolio Operating Assets Inclusive Disbursments (right axis) Hungary Advanced Comparators EBRD 1 Cumulative Bank Investment: 5 year rolling basis on portfolio. 2 Cf. EBRD Transition Report 2017-2018. 3 World Bank WDI. 4 International Labour Organisation. PUBLIC5 IEA’s Energy Atlas. 4 1. Implementation of Previous Strategy (2016-2020) 1.1. Key Transition Results achieved under previous Country Strategy Strategic Alignment 2016-2020 TC, grants and concessional loans Transition Impact Performance* Cumulative Annual Business Investment (ABI) Off-track; Priority 1; 15% Priority 3 100% 27% Priority 1 € 516 m 54% Priority 2 19% On-track; GET share: ETI: 63.6 85% 28% PTI: 66.0 Priority 1: Strengthening banking sector resilience and the capacity to lend Key Results • Facilitated reduction in the Banking Tax in January 2016, broadly recognized to have played an important role in bringing increased stability to banking sector and supporting a return to profitability of main banks. Further organised training on Debt Restructuring/Distressed Debt Sales for Budapest Institute of Banking. • Completed a large equity investment in Erste Bank Hungary for €125m (15% stake) in 2016 to support financial sector restructuring. • Signed €60m investment in OTP's €500m benchmark 10 year subordinated bond, the first issue of subordinated