DECIDING ON DUBLIN'S INTEGRATED TRANSPORT POLICY THE CASE FOR HEAVY RAIL MARTIN ROGERS DUBLIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 1. B A C K G R O U N D Dublin is in the process of finally deciding the structure of its public transport system, in particular the form of rail-based transport to be employed in the capital. This process has been ongoing since the early nineties when the Dublin Transport Initiative (DTI) was established to put together a transportation plan for the Greater Dublin Area to the year 2011, publishing its final report in 1995 (DTI, 1995). The problem of resolving the public transport needs for the capital city has its basis in the recommendations of this report. This paper examines the data used to formulate the initial Core Strategy of projects contained within the DTI Final Report which dealt with all surface transport (road, rail, bus, cycling and walking), and examined transport in an integrated sense, inter-relating it with policies such as economic development, employment and the environment. This paper discusses whether the judgements made by the decision-makere within DTI Phase 2 regarding the most appropriate transport strategy for the region were, in retrospect, the correct ones. In particular, this report, in the opinion of the author, did not pick the correct suburban rail option for Dublin as part of its chosen core strategy. It also asks whether any suitable corrective action has been taken in the intervening years as part of the DTI review process to adjust the strategy, where appropriate, and whether the proposed strategy update corrects, to any extent, the original errors committed. For the purposes of compiling the Final Report, the DTI consisted of a study team made up of an appointed consultant working with a group of professionals seconded to them from the relevant road, rail and bus authorities in the Dublin area. They were charged with devising a balanced transport policy that would embrace all transport modes. 2. DUBLIN TRANSPORT - VISION AND OBJECTIVES The study team drafted a vision statement for Dublin setting the guiding principles for the entire process. The purpose of such a statement was to express succinctly the type of city one should aim for, and that transport policy should help create. It formed the framework within which ideas on possible transport strategies could be developed. The vision had four facets for the role of Dublin: • A leading European city, co-operative and competing. • A national capital and a centre of excellence. • A metropolitan region, with a growing and diverse city, town and rural economy. • A living city and region, accessible to all. 81 The vision statement provided the basis for the preparation of a more detailed set of objectives that the transport strategy would be designed to fulfil. The first four flowed directly from the vision statement, with the fifth relating to the ease of implementation of the transport proposals. The 5 objectives can thus be listed as follows: 1. Encouraging employment and the regional economy as a whole. 2. Improving the quality of life for its inhabitants. 3. Improving the city's relevance in a national and international context. 4. Maximising the coherence and consistency between the development of the city and the region. 5. Maximising the efficiency in implementing the strategy. 3. C R I T E R I A FOR T H E M E S E L E C T I O N The objectives listed above were, in effect, converted directly into a set of main criteria of evaluation. A score on each main criterion was measured using a set of sub-criteria, each of which measured some facet of its main criterion. Summed together, they delivered an overall measurement for the criterion in question. The sub-criteria derived are listed as follows: Objective / Main Criterion Measurable Sub-criteria Employment/regional economy (1) Encourage economic development (1.1) Consolidate existing industry (1.2) Attract new investment (1.3) Improve physical access (1,4) Quality of life (2) Improve comfort and reliability of travel (2.1) Improve traveller security (2.2) Reduce accidents (2.3) Reduce environmental effects of transport (2.4) Improve access to leisure facilities (2.5) International context (3) Increase consistency with national / EU plans (3.1) Improve access to markets (3.2) Improve access to Gtr. Dublin area (3.3) Foster sustainable development (3.4) Development of City and Region (4) Maintain advantage of city centre (4.1) Provide framework for new town development (4.2) Coherence with plans of surrounding counties (4.3) Help conserve heritaqe in the area (4.4) Efficiency in Implementation (5) Maintenance of finance needs at available levels (5.1) Optimise use of existing infrastructure (5,2) Minimise timesca]e for implementation (5.3) Capacity for self enforcement in scheme (5.4) Level of new legislation required (5.5) Contribution to financial health of operators (5.6) Minimise level of disruption during construction (5.7) TABLE 1 - Main criteria and their constituent sub-criteria 4. O P T I O N S / T H E M E S The vision statement also formed the framework within which ideas on possible transport strategies were developed. The relevant transport agencies in the Dublin area were requested to define all feasible schemes, which, in their opinion, should be subject to assessment. All schemes were then organised into 'themes', seen by the study team as suitable vehicles for exploring and comparing different policy options. Because these arose directly 82 from the submissions of transport agencies, they tended to be representative of different sectional mode-based interests within the transport provision sector rather than be seen as separate, coherent and stand-alone strategies. Their purpose, from the perspective of the DTI study team, was to allow the strengths and weaknesses of the different mode/policy options to be assessed. The following eight themes were developed: Theme Description Theme 1 - The 'do-minimum' situation A benchmark scenario against which all others are measured. Theme 2 - Restraint A set of measures to reduce private car use (road pricing, parking restraint and complimentary management measures) Theme 3 - Making better use of existing A set of low cost schemes to increase use of assets roads and public transport through high and low tech measures (traffic control improvement) Theme 4 - Incremental Road The completion only of major roadways Development which have been started plus some relatively minor road developments Theme 5 - Extended road development A widespread package of major road schemes including an Eastern By-Pass of the city and a cross- city East-West tunnel. Theme 6 - An environmental package A package focussing on pedestrian, cycle and related measures including traffic calming to give priority to pedestrians and cyclists. Theme 7 - Enhanced public transport Development of a quality bus corridors, light investment rail systems and limited extensions to the heavy rail network Theme 8 - Extended public transport Development of a city wide heavy rail investment including an underground section, plus an interchange facility in the city TABLE 2 - Brief description of themes 5. O V E R A L L THEME COSTS The following costs are approximate, and are based on the interpretation of information contained in the 1995 DTI Final Report. The prices are thus at 1995 levels for all work under each theme up until 2011. Theme 1 Theme 1 represents a small number of mainly road schemes already committed to by the Government at the time of the study. Under it, no extra development beyond these is assumed to take place until 2011, the end of the study period. It is thus a benchmark, against which all other themes can be gauged. Given that the costs of all other themes were assumed to be the resources required over and above those already committed by the Government to these road schemes, the cost of Theme 1, for the purposes of the DTI analysis, was taken as zero. Theme 2 No significant cost is attributed to this theme within the DTI Final Report. If implemented, the only expenditure would be on tolling infrastructure and the upgrading of parking restraint mechanisms. 83 Theme 3 Again, no significant cost is attributed to this theme within the DTI Final Report. Expenditure on this theme would be on telematic equipment and the provision of real time information for public transport. The operators themselves could, to a large extent, meet these costs. Theme 4 The total cost for the road development under this theme to 2011 was given in the Final Report as over IR600m. However, the Government had already allocated approximately 90% of these funds prior to the formation of DTI in order to complete the orbital route around the city, with links into the national network. Approximate cost IR£6Om+ Theme 5 The expenditure over an above that listed in Theme 4 would be approximately IR£750m+ Theme 6 The management measures outlined in this package will amount to approximately IR£130+. Theme 7 The 1995 costing for light rail was put at IR£40Om+, rising from an estimate of IR£21Om in the 1992 interim DTI Report, with the bus corridors totalling in excess of IR£100m. The total package amounted to approximately IR£550. Theme 8 The cost of a 3-line Heavy rail system was estimated at IR£595m in 1995 prices. 6. MULTI-CRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF THEMES 6.1. Introduction Within the overall strategic process, the stated aim of the study approach was to assess the contribution of individual policy options towards meeting the DTI objectives. Because no theme represented a coherent, integrated, 'stand- alone' strategy, there was no question of finding the 'best' theme.