In August of 2003, a heat wave enveloped Europe, killing some 35,000 people—more deaths than any single nation suffered in the Invasion of Normandy. With temperatures hovering over 100 degrees for several weeks, it was probably that continent’s hottest summer in 500 years — and just one deadly example of how Earth is steadily, and dangerously, warming. In fact, the planet’s hottest 12 years on record—since reliable measurements began in 1861—have occurred over the past 17 years, according to a 2007 report by the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change. But that’s just the start. Scientists predict that Earth’s average temperature could increase up to 11.5°F by 2100—a rate more than 10 times greater than the warming witnessed in the 20th century, and possibly unprecedented in the past 10,000 years. Even conser- vative estimates predict the globe will heat by 2°F over the next century, possibly triggering a spiral of natural disasters far surpassing Hurricane Katrina or this summer’s wildfires in the western United States. Who’s to blame? Mostly us, it appears, and our galloping consumption of fossil fuels. But, more important, people are now asking: Is there a fix? The following pages examine the issue and reveal answers that our great-grandchildren will likely debate as the climate continues to transfigure their world. THE EVIDENCE IS IN ON GLOBAL WARMING AND, MORE THAN EVER, THE PLANET’S FUTURE IS IN OUR HANDS. SO WHAT CAN NEW YORK, NYU—AND YOU—DO…BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE? 38 FACTS AND 42 RESIZING YOUR FORECASTS FOOTPRINT The proof at hand and Conservation tips within predictions for the future reach of almost all budgets 40 REPRESSED 44 GREEN GOTHAM REALITY New York City and NYU Knowing what we know, bid to make themselves why aren’t we doing more? sustainable urban centers NYU / FALL 2007 / 37 3 7 4 1 15 2 6 GLOBAL HARMING A glance at the damage already done from pole to pole— and what scientists say is still to come. WARM WATER RISING TIDE PERFECT STORMS NOT SO PERMANENT 2 Oceans have absorbed 4For the past two millen- 6 Tropical sea surface 8 The top layer of per- FACTS 80 percent of the heat we’ve nia, the sea level has risen temperatures during the mafrost has increased in added to the climate, between 0.1 and 0.2 mil- hurricane season have temperature by 5.4°F since POISON IN THE AIR increasing average water limeters per year. Rates increased 1°F since 1970, the 1980s, causing some to 1 Greenhouse gases— temperatures even at depths have averaged 10 times that possibly boosting the inten- thaw for the first time in caused by burning fossil of almost 10,000 feet. in the past century, and 30 sity of North Atlantic more than 125,000 years. fuels such as oil, coal, and times that since 1993. storms. The number of cat- As it melts, permafrost re- gas—can stay in the atmos- ON THIN ICE egory four and five hurri- leases concentrated vol- phere for centuries, trapping 3 The Arctic warmed OH-NO-ZONE canes—registering winds of umes of the greenhouse gas heat from the Earth’s surface twice as fast as the rest of 5 First observed in the more than 131 mph—has methane. and warming the planet. the planet over the past early 1980s, the hole in the nearly doubled worldwide Greenhouse gas emissions 100 years. Its cap of sea ice Antarctic ozone—the since then. GOODBYE, GLACIERS jumped 70 percent between has shrunk by an average stratospheric gas that pro- 9 The 11,000-year-old 1970 and 2004. Ice cores of 8.4 percent each decade tects Earth from ultraviolet ACRES ABLAZE ice caps of Mount Kiliman- suggest that the current at- since the 1970s, and this light—now grows to an area 7 Significant drought af- jaro in Tanzania have melt- mospheric concentration of year reached a record low. larger than Antarctica most fected 52 percent of the ed by about 82 percent over carbon dioxide—the green- The less Arctic ice there is years. At the South Pole United States in 2006 and the past century—and could house gas most produced by to reflect sunlight, the itself, ozone depletion contributed to a record wild- be gone altogether by 2020. humans—far exceeds the more heat the sea absorbs. reached 99 percent in early fire season in which almost natural range of the past October 2006. 10 million acres burned. 650,000 years. 38 / FALL 2007 / NYU 8 14 12 9 13 11 10 5 ILLUSTRATION BY FUTUREFARMERS/AMY FRANCESCHINI SHRINKING tists pre- U.S. states could lose their of the world’s population— 10 ANTARCTICA dict, it official state trees or flow- including some in the west- In the space of 35 days in FORECASTS could raise ers, and seven may lose ern United States—will face 2002, about 1,255 square sea levels their state birds, as chang- water shortages as they miles of Antarctica’s SUBMERGED by 23 feet, submerging ing climates make those receive 10 to 30 percent Larsen B ice shelf disinte- 11 If current warming much of Florida and locations less habitable. less snowpack runoff than grated into the ocean. trends continue, sea levels threatening London and If summer ocean temper- today. Until this event, scientists could rise as much as 3.5 Los Angeles. atures increase by just 1.8°F, estimate the sheet meas- inches by 2100. However, the world’s coral reefs— AGRICULTURE ured more than 700 feet in the real danger is if CARBON considered the “rain forests 15 More frequent thickness and had likely Greenland’s ice sheet 12 OVERLOAD of the ocean” for their rich, floods and droughts will existed for 12,000 years. begins to rapidly melt. Experts predict global delicate ecosystem—could decrease crop production, It is now 40 percent of its Even if only part of it emissions of carbon diox- cause them to die en masse. especially in low-altitude, previous size. slides into the Atlantic, ide will jump an additional During one of the warmest subsistence regions. While this would cause flooding 75 percent by 2030. periods on record in the late the number of people along the Gulf Coast and 1990s, about 16 percent of worldwide facing food the eastern seaboard from LOSS OF LIFE reefs worldwide were shortages is expected to fall Boston to Miami, while 13 By 2050, more than a severely damaged. by 2085—from 521 to 300 places such as Bangladesh million species of plants and million—global warming would become uninhabit- animals may be on the road UNQUENCHABLE will offset the decline, able. If the ice sheet melts to extinction as a result of 14 THIRST pushing the total back up completely, as some scien- global warming. Nearly 30 By 2050, nearly one-sixth by 69 to 91 million. NYU / FALL 2007 / 39 WHY WE PUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL TIME BOMB ON THE BACK BURNER by Sharon Tregaskis with Jason Hollander / GAL ’07 / and Nicole Pezold / GSAS ’04 IMAGINE A MAMMOTH METEOR blazing toward Earth. When it will arrive and whether it will hit directly is debatable, but scientists are NYU social psychologist John unanimous on one thing—it’s coming. And Jost, who calls this phenomenon they’re trying desperately to motivate every- “system justification theory.” one to take action before it’s too late. Last spring, Jost collaborated with graduate student Irina While this scenario is science effects is complicated, and so far Feygina (GSAS ’10) and Mount fiction, a similar danger—just as most evidence comes from dis- Sinai Hospital psychologist daunting and apocalyptic—is on tant, barely habited places. We, Rachel Goldsmith to investigate the horizon. Researchers now and our leaders, are easily dis- how system justification theory almost universally believe that tracted by closer issues—war, interacts with environmental catastrophic climate change, terrorism, disease, race rela- attitudes. Among their findings: caused primarily by carbon tions, economic distress. Most people who believe that dioxide emissions, is more a “People get motivated with society is generally fair are also matter of “when,” rather than near-term dangers, but this is skeptical about the forecasted “if.” NASA climate scientist different,” says Tyler Volk climate crisis. “There are psy- James Hansen predicts that we (GSAS ’82, ’84), a biologist and chological obstacles to creating have perhaps a decade to halt core faculty member in NYU’s real, lasting change,” Jost says, our runaway greenhouse gases, new environmental studies pro- “in addition to all of the scientif- otherwise we will guarantee for gram. “It’s not like the Hudson ic, technical, economic, and our children a fundamentally River is suddenly full of mercury political obstacles.” Because of different planet—one where sea and everyone is threatened.” this, he notes, denial is far easier ice no longer blankets the Arctic, As individuals, we may not and more convenient than sup- where storms relentlessly buffet deny the mounting evidence of porting a carbon tax, paying coastal communities, and con- global climate change, but we do more for high-efficiency tech- flicts over scarce fresh water harbor an inherent desire to nology, or giving up cheap goods and shifting climactic zones keep our minds on other things. shipped through elaborate, fuel- our future. “There’s no question rock international relations. And In his 1974 Pulitzer prize–win- guzzling supply chains. sea levels will rise,” says David yet global carbon emissions are ning book The Denial of Death, Even so, denial is getting hard- Holland, a mathematician and rising at unprecedented rates, social scientist Ernest Becker er, as scientists gain an increas- director of the Center for and Americans are expected to argued that “the essence of nor- ingly nuanced understanding of Atmosphere Ocean Science in produce ever-greater volumes of mality is the refusal of reality,” the mechanics—and the conse- the Courant Institute of carbon dioxide in coming years.