GENERATIVE MECHANISMS OF TURKISH - AMERICAN DEFENSE RELATIONS: 1973-1980, A CRITICAL REALIST APPROACH A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY MUSTAFA TANER IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FEBRUARY 2021 Approval of the thesis: GENERATIVE MECHANISMS OF TURKISH-AMERICAN DEFENSE REATIONS: 1973-1980, A CRITICAL REALIST APPROACH submitted by MUSTAFA TANER in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Oktay TANRISEVER Head of Department Department of International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tuba ÜNLÜ BİLGİÇ Supervisor Department of International Relations Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Hasan ÜNAL (Head of the Examining Committee) Maltepe University Department of Political Science and International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tuba ÜNLÜ BİLGİÇ (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Gözde YILMAZ Atılım University Department of International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zerrin TORUN Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Işık KUŞÇU Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name: Mustafa TANER Signature: iii ABSTRACT GENERATIVE MECHANISMS OF TURKISH - AMERICAN DEFENSE RELATIONS: 1973-1980 A CRITICAL REALIST ANALYSIS TANER, Mustafa Ph.D., The Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tuba ÜNLÜ BİLGİÇ February 2021, 233 pages The Turkish-American relations hit a hard bottom in 1974 and then enjoyed a high level of cooperation with the DECA of 1980. This thesis explores how bilateral relations evolved from a conflictual level to a high level of cooperation in just six years and the causal mechanisms that induced change in bilateral relations. In doing so, it targets to find out causal mechanisms of the Turkish-American defense relations during one of the most turbulent periods of this relationship. In order to solve this puzzle, a causation theory based on Aristotelian four causes typology was applied. Accordingly, structural, agential, material and ideational causes that produce the major milestones of the said relations in the studied period were analyzed in the light of the scientific realist philosophy. Hence, the study reviews the arms embargo imposed upon Turkey in 1975, the removal of that embargo in 1978, and the signature of the Defense and Economic Cooperation Agreement in 1980 based on the declassified official US foreign policy documents. Keywords: Embargo, DECA, Turkish-American Relations, Defense Industrial Cooperation iv ÖZ TÜRK-AMERİKAN SAVUNMA İLİŞKİLERİNİ ÜRETEN MEKANİZMALAR: 1973-1980, BİLİMSEL GERÇEKÇİ BİR YAKLAŞIM TANER, Mustafa Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tuba ÜNLÜ BİLGİÇ Şubat 2021, 233 sayfa Türk-Amerikan ilişkileri 1974'te sert bir dibe vuruş yaşadıktan sonra, 1980 yılına gelindiğinde Savunma ve Ekonomik İşbirliği Anlaşması ile yüksek düzeyde bir işbirliğine sahip olmuştur. Dolayısıyla bu tez, ikili ilişkilerin sadece altı yıl içinde çatışma düzeyinden yüksek düzeyde bir işbirliğine nasıl dönüştüğünü incelemeyi ve ikili ilişkilerde değişimi üreten mekanizmaları ortaya çıkarmayı hedeflemektedir. Bu amaçla, Aristo’nun dört neden öğretisine dayalı olarak geliştirilmiş olan bir nedensellik teorisi uygulanmış; incelenen dönemde söz konusu ilişkilerin temel kilometre taşlarını oluşturan olaylar, 1975 yılında uygulanan ambargo, 1978 yılında ambargonun kaldırılması ve 1980 yılında Savunma ve Ekonomik İşbirliği Anlaşması'nın imzalanması, yapısal, amil, maddi ve fikirsel nedenler bağlamında incelenmiştir. Araştırma, temel olarak ABD’nin gizliliği kaldırılmış diplomatik yazışma ve resmi dış politika belgelerine dayanmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ambargo, SEIA, Türk-Amerikan İlişkileri, Savunma Sanayii İşbirliği v To my wife Asude Başat. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my most profound appreciation to my supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Tuba ÜNLÜ BİLGİÇ who graciously spared her time to guide me with her knowledge and wisdom. I am also deeply indebted to Prof. Hüseyin BAĞCI who encouraged and supported me to embark on this topic for my doctoral dissertation in the first place. Likewise, I would like to extend my sincere thanks to other members of the dissertation committee; Dr. Bestami Bilgiç, Prof. Hasan Ali Karasar, and Assoc. Prof. Gözde Yılmaz, whose insightful guidance and remarks proved indispensable. Among many scholars to have inspired me to pursue a Ph.D. in international relations, I remember with great respect the late Professor Mehmet GÖNLÜBOL, who was gracious enough to supervise my Master's thesis many years ago at the Faculty of Political Science (Mülkiye). He was the one to have insisted that I should definitely continue with my studies and seek to obtain a doctoral degree. I also feel grateful for the advice freely dispensed by other scholars along the way: Prof. Meliha Altunışık, Prof. Nuri Yurdusev, Prof. İlhan UZGEL, Prof. Faruk YALVAÇ, Prof. Özlem TÜR, Assoc. Prof. Pınar Bedirhanoğlu, Assoc. Prof. Fatih Tayfur, and Dr. Kazım Ateş contributed in a major way by widening my perspective. I would also like to express my gratitude to my colleagues and superiors who were very supportive of my academic endeavors during my tenure at the Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM), where I have worked for more than twenty years. In particular, Undersecretary Dr. Veysel YAYAN, genuinely encouraged and supported me to study this subject. Similarly, Dr. Sıtkı EGELİ who was my immediate superior at SSM more than two decades ago, hugely contributed to my grasp and apprehension of the circumstances and complexities surrounding defense markets and policies. Dr. Egeli has graciously spared his time to provide remarks and insights for this doctoral vii dissertation. Likewise, I feel indebted to Dr. Oğuz Hamşioğlu, who kept constant watch on my work and its many tasks. Finally, very special thanks to my wife Asude BAŞAT. She has been extremely supportive of me throughout this entire process with her love, encouragement and patience. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ..........................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................. IV ÖZ ............................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..................................................................................... VII TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................... IX LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................. XII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................... XIII CHAPTERS 1.INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Research Question ........................................................................................... 1 1.2. Methodology ................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Organization of the Dissertation: .................................................................... 5 2. APPLYING THE THEORY OF CAUSATION TO TURKISH-AMERICAN RELATIONS ............................................................................................................. 9 2.1. Scientific Realism: ........................................................................................ 10 2.2. The Theory of Causation ............................................................................... 20 2.3. Conclusions ................................................................................................... 31 3. A CONCISE SUMMARY OF TURKISH-AMERICAN DEFENCE COOPERATION (1973-1980): ............................................................................... 33 3.1. Nixon, Ford and Kissinger ............................................................................ 33 3.2. Carter, Cyrus Vance and Brzezinski ............................................................. 34 3.3. A Summary of US-Turkey Relations Between 1973-1980 .......................... 36 3.4. Conclusions ................................................................................................... 42 4. THE ROAD TOWARDS THE EMBARGO ....................................................... 43 4.1. Cyprus Intervention and the Arms Embargo: ............................................... 50 4.2. The Divide between the US Administration and the Congress regarding Turkey .................................................................................................................. 54 ix 4.3. US Security Policy Toward Turkey .............................................................