This subject paper is intended to be a research paper delving into different views and analyses from various sources. The views and analyses as contained in this paper are intended to stimulate public discussion and input to the planning process of the "HK2030 Study" and do not necessarily represent the views of the HKSARG. WORKING PAPER NO. 35 INITIAL TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Purpose 1. The purpose of this paper is to provide information on the reference transport demand forecasts, assessment of Reference Scenario and framework for option evaluations. Background 2. Under Stage 3 of the HK2030 Study, Development Scenario and Development Options are formulated. The Development Options are then subject to transport, economic, financial as well as environmental assessments. Under the integrated approach adopted for the Study, the transport requirements identified for the Development Options are also assessed in terms of the environmental, economic and financial implications in order that a meaningful comparison of the Development Options could be made. 3. Under the Reference Scenario, various development choices have been considered to satisfy the land requirements. They can broadly be categorised into two different options of development patterns, namely Decentralisation and Consolidation. The details are presented in the paper on Development Options under the Reference Scenario. Assessments have been carried out to identify the transport requirements of the two Development Options in 2010, 2020 and 2030. The findings are summarised in the following sections. Development Options 4. Under the Reference Scenario, the population in 2030 could be in the region of 9.2 million which is only marginally more than the population of 8.9 million for 2016 adopted in the previous strategic planning. In other words, the planning that we have done so far, including the existing, planned and identified development areas originally targeted for 2016, should be broadly sufficient for 2030 in terms of population growth. The planning choice, which has been reflected in the two Development Options - Decentralisation and Consolidation - is merely one of timing and priority. - 1 - 5. In both options, all the policy-driven land use proposals are common, which include container port (CT1-9), airport, logistic facilities, tourism/cultural facilities, environmental and strategic infrastructures such as power supply facilities and cross boundary infrastructure. All of them, except the future port, already have defined locations under the Reference Scenario. According to the latest coarse screening exercise of the Hong Kong Port 2020 Study, there are three potential sites, viz. South West Tsing Yi, North West Lantau and West Tuen Mun. Their impact (except West Tuen Mun) on transport in each Development Option will be tested separately. Future port at West Tuen Mun had been studied under the Feasibility Study for Additional Cross-border Links in 2000, no further testing will be carried out in this study. 6. Both Development Options will have a population increase by 12% from 2001 to 2010, another 12% from 2010 to 2020 and 8% from 2020 to 2030. The total population in 2030 will reach 9.2 million. For employment total, there will be a 10% increase from 2001 to 2010, 8% from 2010 to 2020 and 4% from 2020 to 2030, reaching about 4.0 million by 2030. However, as mentioned above, the spatial distribution is different in the Development Options. 7. Variations between the two Development Options up to 2010 are minimal as alternative land use patterns are only feasible over a longer time horizon. In the Decentralisation Option, the population and employment growths between 2010 and 2020 focus more on the New Territories (especially in NWNT and NENT) while in the consolidation pattern, the growths emphasize more on the Metro area. The difference in population distribution between the Consolidation and Decentralisation Options for the New Territories and the Metro area amounts to 220,000 in 2020 to 2030. In the New Territories, there are 50,000 and 60,000 more job places in the decentralisation pattern than the consolidation pattern by 2020 and 2030 respectively. The breakdown of the population and employment distributions for the two Development Options are tabulated in Annex A. Input Assumptions 8. The Reference Scenario assumes a faster development pace at the western part of Pearl River Delta. Two additional cross-boundary infrastructures are assumed to be in place by 2011-2020, namely the Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge (HZMB) and the Hong Kong- Shenzhen-Guangzhou Express Rail Link (ERL). 9. It is assumed that the annual domestic GDP growths are 3% and 2.5% before and after 2011 respectively. The GDP assumptions are projected figures assumed in the Reference Scenario. 10. The assumed car fleet sizes are 395,000 by 2010, 455,000 by 2020 and 532,000 by 2030. Car fleet size of 2030 has adopted the 2016 figure from the Strategic Highway Project Review 2002/03 due to similar population total. Fleet sizes for 2010 and 2020 were worked out by interpolation and maintaining a reasonable proportion between the population and car ownership. - 2 - 11. Four candidate locations of the future port at West Tuen Mun, North-west Lantau, East-Lantau and South-west Tsing Yi, had been identified in the Port Development Strategy 2000/01. As detailed assessment is still underway, it is anticipated that a recommended location could be decided under the HK Port Master Plan 2020 Study. However, its latest coarse screening exercise suggested that the four locations to be narrowed down to South-west Tsing Yi, North- west Lantau and West Tuen Mun. For reason as stated in para. 5, only the former two locations had been examined as future port options under both the Consolidation and Decentralisation patterns. Regardless of the future location of the port, it is anticipated that there will be an additional 13 container berths by 2020. 12. Based on the Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2020 of the Airport Authority, it is assumed that the annual air cargo capacity would go up to 9M tonnes and annual passenger capacity to 87M by 2020. For the purpose of the study, we have assumed a moderate annual growth rate of 2% for both passenger and cargo growth from 2020 to 2030, resulting in about 105 million passengers and 14 million tonnes of cargo a year by 2030. These assumptions will need to be revised upon availability of further updates from the Airport Authority. 13. Details of other input assumptions are summarised in Annex B. The same set of input assumptions was applied to all development and port options because the only differences between options are mainly on land-use, population and employment distributions. Transport Demand 14. It is noted that there is a bigger discrepancy in population of 220,000 than employment places of about 50,000-60,000 between the two Development Options for the NT and the metro area in 2020 and 2030. However, these figures only represent about 2% of the territorial total population and employment. 15. For strategic transport assessment, there is only a slight difference in person trips between the two options (as shown in Table 1). Detailed information on person and goods vehicle trips for all development and port options is provided in Annex C. Table 1 - Person Trips Development Person Trips Option Port Location Private Public Total 2020 Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 4,613,057 11,368,871 15,981,928 NW Lantau 4,611,582 11,360,895 15,972,477 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 4,623,889 11,312,563 15,936,452 NW Lantau 4,624,239 11,320,248 15,944,487 2030 Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 5,061,140 11,883,138 16,944,278 NW Lantau 5,062,476 11,897,306 16,959,782 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 5,071,241 11,858,955 16,930,196 NW Lantau 5,070,820 11,843,760 16,914,580 Note: Private person trips comprise car, taxi and special purpose bus Public person trips comprise seven PT modes of MTR, KCR, LRT, Tram, Ferry, PLB and Bus - 3 - 16. From Annex C, it is observed that the numbers of public, private and goods vehicle trips between regions are fairly similar under the two Development Options. The number of internal trips in the Hong Kong Island is constant across all options. The number of the Kowloon internal trips under the Decentralisation Option is slightly less than that under the Consolidation Option. The numbers of public, private and goods vehicle trips are around 1.7%, 2% and 1.3% respectively lower under the Decentralisation Option. Most of these trips are absorbed by the internal trips of the New Territories. The total cross harbour trip is fairly similar for all options. The number of trips between Kowloon and the New Territories under the Decentralisaton Option is about 0.5% slightly more than that under the Consolidation Option. 17. The choices of transport mode (as shown in Table 2) are similar with 33-34% of person trips by bus and other public transport, 37-38% by rail, 11% by car, 11% by taxi and 8% by others in 2020 and 2030. Table 2 – Modal Share Main Modal Split (%) Development Port Car Taxi SPB PT (non Rail Option Location rail) 2020 Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 10.6 10.6 7.6 33.7 37.4 NW Lantau 10.6 10.6 7.6 33.7 37.4 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 10.7 10.6 7.7 33.5 37.5 NW Lantau 10.7 10.6 7.7 33.5 37.5 2030 Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 11.1 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.1 NW Lantau 11.1 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.2 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 11.2 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.0 NW Lantau 11.2 10.3 8.5 33.0 37.0 18.