2020 Election Results November 2020 2020 Election: Cicely’s Key Takeaways Top 5 Takeaways 1. Two Key Numbers Drove Results: Early Votes & COVID Cases 2. Blue Wave became Blue Shift 3. Shy Biden Voter v. Secret Trump Voter 4. Minority Populations Drive Turnout; Not a One Size Fits All Approach 5. Red States are Now Purple States 2 2020 Election: Key Takeaway - Early Votes Exceed 103.2 Million 3 Source: Bloomberg Government 2020 Election: Key Takeaway - COVID Cases Increase Prior to Election Day 231,000 Americans died from COVID Cases & hospitalizations at all time high in 44 states U.S. surpassed 100,000 cases per day COVID-19 - #1 issue for voters 4 2020 Election Presidential Race November 2020 5 Presidential Results – 1988, 1992 Source: 270toWin 6 Presidential Results – 1996, 2000 Source: 270toWin 7 Presidential Races – 2004, 2008 Source: 270toWin 8 Presidential Races – 2012, 2016 Source: 270toWin 9 2020 Election: Presidential Race Source: 270toWin 10 2020 Election: Presidential Race 11 2020 Election: Presidential Race Voter Attitudes About COVID-19 12 2020 Election: Presidential Race 13 2020 Election U.S. Senate November 2020 14 2020 Election: U.S. Senate Senate control remains in flux and will be a determinative factor in a Biden Administration Agenda. Both parties are preparing for runoffs in Georgia’s two Senate seats on January 5, 2021. For Democrats to lead the Senate, they need to win both Georgia runoff races which would result in a 50-50 Senate; Vice President Kamala Harris would be the tie vote. 15 Source: Bloomberg Government 2020 Election: U.S. Senate Georgia Runoffs (Jan. 5, 2021) Democrats Republicans • Sen. David Perdue (R) faces Jon Ossoff (D) • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) faces Raphael Warnock (D) 48 50 Incoming Freshmen • Bill Hagerty (R-TN) • John Hickenlooper (D-CO) • Mark Kelly (D-AZ • Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) • Cynthia LuMMis (R-WY) • Roger Marshall (R-KS) • ToMMy Tuberville (R-AL) Defeated Incumbent Senators • Cory Gardner (R-CO) defeated by Hickenlooper • Doug Jones (D-AL) defeated by Tuberville • Martha McSally (R-AZ) defeated by Kelly Source: Bloomberg Government; The Associated Press as of Nov. 11 as of 9 p.m. EST Note: Yellow indicates independents caucus with Democrats; gray indicates uncalled or runoff races 16 2020 Election: Record Fundraising $13.9 Billion SENATE 17 Source: Bloomberg Government 2020 Election: Georgia Runoff Race Results Jon Ossoff David Perdue Sen. David Perdue (R) is seeking a second term against Jon Ossoff (D), a documentary film producer who raised $30 million in 2017 for a nationally watched House special election • Perdue defeated Michelle Nunn (D) in 2014, 53%-45% Source: Bloomberg Government 18 2020 Election: Georgia Runoff Race Results Raphael Warnock Kelly Loeffler Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) will face pastor Raphael Warnock (D) in a Jan. 5. 2021, runoff • Loeffler was appointed in January 2020 to succeed Johnny Isakson (R), who was re-elected 55%-41% in 2016 • Multiple candidates shared the same all-party ballot in the special election Source: Bloomberg Government 19 117th Congress: Senate Democratic Leadership Democratic Leader & Democratic Policy and Communications Chair of Conference Committee Chair Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Democratic Whip Democratic Conference Vice Chair Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Democratic Conference Vice Chair Assistant Democratic Leader Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) 20 117th Congress: Senate Democratic Leadership Democratic Steering Committee Chair Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Secretary of the Conference Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Chair of Outreach Democratic Policy & Communications Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Committee Vice Chair Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) Democratic Policy & Communications Vice Chair of Outreach Committee Vice Chair Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) 21 117th Congress: Senate Republican Leadership Republican Leader Republican Policy Committee Chair Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO Republican Whip Republican Conference Vice Chair Sen. John Thune (R-SD) Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) RSCC Chair Republican Conference Chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) 22 2020 Election U.S. House November 2020 23 2020 Election: U.S. House 24 Source: Bloomberg Government 2020 Election: U.S. House Balance of Power Democrats Republicans 220 204 Source: Bloomberg Government Note: Gray indicates uncalled races - 11 25 2020 Election: U.S. House By the Numbers Elected to Other Office Defeated in General CA-08 – Paul Cook (R), elected to San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors IA-01 – Abby Finkenauer (D) OK-05 – Kendra Horn (D) KS-01 – Roger Marshall (R), elected to Senate SC-01 – Joe Cunningham (D) FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) MT-AL – Greg Gianforte (R), elected governor FL-27 – Donna Shalala (D) NM-02 – Xochitl Torres Small (D) NM-03 – Ben Ray Luján (D), elected to Senate MN-07 – Collin Peterson (D) WA-10 – Denny Heck (D), elected lieutenant governor Did Not Seek Re-election Defeated in Primary AL-02 – Martha Roby (R) NC-06 – Mark Walker (R) CA-53 – Susan Davis (D) NY-02 – Peter King (R) CO-03 – Scott Tipton (R) KS-02 – Steve Watkins (R) FL-03 – Ted Yoho (R) NY-15 – José Serrano (D) FL-15 – Ross Spano (R) MO-01 – Lacy Clay (D) FL-19 – Francis Rooney (R) NY-17 – Nita Lowey (D) IA-04 – Steve King (R) NY-16 – Eliot Engel (D) GA-07 – Rob Woodall (R) OR-02 – Greg Walden (R) IL-03 – Dan Lipinski (D) VA-05 – Denver Riggleman (R) HI-02 – Tulsi Gabbard (D) TN-01 – Phil Roe (R) IA-02 – Dave Loebsack (D) TX-11 – Michael Conaway (R) IL-15 – John Shimkus (R) TX-13 – Mac Thornberry (R) IN-01 – Pete Visclosky (D) TX-17 – Bill Flores (R) Defeated for Other Office IN-05 – Susan Brooks (R) TX-22 – Pete Olson (R) LA-05 – Ralph Abraham (R) TX-23 – Will Hurd (R) AL-01 – Bradley Byrne (R), lost Senate primary MI-03 – Justin Amash (L) TX-24 – Kenny Marchant (R) GA-09 – Doug Collins (R), defeated in Senate special election MI-10 – Paul Mitchell (R) WI-05 – Jim Sensenbrenner (R) MA-04 – Joe Kennedy (D), lost Senate primary NC-02 – George Holding (R) UT-01 – Rob Bishop (R), lost primary for lieutenant governor 26 Source: Bloomberg Government 117th Congress: House Democratic Leadership Assistant Democratic Leader Speaker of the House Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA) Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) Democratic Majority Leader Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) Democratic Caucus Leadership Democratic Majority Whip Representative Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) 27 117th Congress: House Democratic Leadership Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Co-Chairs Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) DCCC Chair – Two Members are vying for DCCC Chair. Election will occur after Thanksgiving. Rep. Tony Cardenas Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-CA) (D-NY) 28 117th Congress: House Republican Leadership House Minority Leader Republican Conference Vice Chair Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) Minority Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) Republican Conference Secretary Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) Republican Conference Chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) 29 117th Congress: House Republican Leadership Republican Policy Committee Chair Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) NRCC Chair Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) 30 2020 Election Governors November 2020 31 2020 Election Gubernatorial Races 32 Source: Bloomberg Government 33.