Eindhoven University of Technology MASTER Upscaling of niche experiments in PV solar energy for transition to sustainability in India Jolly, S. Award date: 2010 Link to publication Disclaimer This document contains a student thesis (bachelor's or master's), as authored by a student at Eindhoven University of Technology. Student theses are made available in the TU/e repository upon obtaining the required degree. The grade received is not published on the document as presented in the repository. The required complexity or quality of research of student theses may vary by program, and the required minimum study period may vary in duration. 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(Henny) Romijn-First Supervisor Dr. Ir. R.P.J.M Raven-Second Supervisor Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands 1 Preface and acknowledgment This thesis is written for fulfillment of Master of Science in Technology and Policy of the Department of Industrial Engineering and Innovation Sciences at the Eindhoven University of Technology. There is an interesting story to this research as the idea for this research was given to me by my first supervisor Dr. H A (Henny) Romijn way back in November 2008 when I had just started the master‘s programme. I wrote a small paper for a master course Capita Selecta and discussed up scaling of solar water heaters in India. Later I decided to carry out similar kind of research but in a more extensive way. I also had the opportunity to conduct the research in India and also apply my knowledge in solving sustainability related issues in my country. This thesis would not have been possible without the support and guidance from many people. First I would to thank my first supervisor Dr H A (Henny) Romijn who has not just been a supervisor but a mentor for me for my entire master‘s programme and has guided me throughout the master‘s programme. I also want to thank my second supervisor Dr Ir. R. P J.M Raven who has not only helped me in this research but also taught me courses related to transition studies and system of innovation which form the basis of this research. Apart from them I would also like to thank all other teachers Dr Ir. Geert Verbong, Dr Ir.Anneles Balkema, Dr Saurabh Arora, Dr Bart Sadowksi and several other teachers who have taught me several courses to build a strong base to carry out a master research project. I would also like to extend my deep regards for Ria Overwater and International Student‘s Office which helped me getting a scholarship for master‘s programme. In Eindhoven I would also like to thank all my friends Eddy, Alok, Tom, Naomi, friends from TVO and many more I met here in Eindhoven. In India I would like to extend my thanks and appreciation to Ms. Sarah Alexander from SELCO India, Mr Hemant Lamba and Hemant Shekhar from AURORE, Dr. V V Ramani from THRIVE, Mr D T Barki and Bharat Barki from NEST, Mr. Sam Goldman from D Light Design and Mr. M C Raj from REDS for their support in sharing their knowledge about solar energy in India. In addition I would like to thank my friends Anil Kumar, M S Srivastava Reddy who were very helpful to me in carrying out field visits in Bangalore and Hyderabad. A special thanks to my parents, grandparents and other family members who have always been supportive of what I have done and encouraged me. This research would not have been possible without them. Last a special thanks to all the ‗musicians‘ specially Ustaad Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan sahab and A R Rahman who have inspired me a lot as music provides me a lot of inspiration for research and life as well. I hope you will enjoy reading this thesis. Suyash Jolly Eindhoven 9 th August, 2010 2 Summary of Research Emerging nations such as India are at a cross roads with dual agendas of reducing energy poverty, improving energy security as well as reducing green house gas emissions. India is characterized by rapid economic expansion which is likely to increase the energy demand. However currently India faces several issues such as energy poverty with large number of people lacking access to energy, power losses, issues with respect to security of supply, rapidly increasing urban rural divide and excessive dependence on fossil fuels. To counter these issues there is a need for system level transformation with radical changes in technological, social, cultural and behavioral changes rather than end of pipe measures alone. The emerging field of transition studies which is highly multidisciplinary in nature and developed by Dutch researchers offers some path breaking insights into how we can lead into new socio technical systems with radically increased environmental and social performance. The emerging field of transition studies which has been build upon economics of innovation, evolutionary and neo-institutional theory, complex systems theory, political science and history and sociology of technology, emphasizes that technological, institutional and societal change need to be seen as embedded in one another. The literature discusses transitions as the result of multi level dynamics emphasizing lock in and stability at the meso level of socio technical regimes; radical innovation and experimentation at the micro level of niches under the influence of external pressure emerging from changes at the macro level of the socio technical landscape (Geels, 2002). Experimentation in niches which are defined as (a coherent set of rules and institutions that enables and constrains the choices and behaviour of regime actors including firms, users, policy actors, scientists, etc and the selection environment for innovations) takes place through the processes of dynamics of expectations, network formation and single and double loop learning under Strategic Niche Management. (Kemp et al.1998; Raven, 2005). Emerging niches such as Photovoltaic (PV) have the potential to solve some of the problems created due to the current socio technical regimes i.e. fossil fuel based energy system. PV technology is expanding very rapidly due to technological innovations. PV is a commercially available and reliable technology with a significant potential for long term growth in nearly all world regions. PV is projected to provide 5% of global electricity consumption in 2030 rising to 11% in 2050. It also has the potential to meet other development challenges such as rural electrification, energy provision and more generally poverty alleviation. In this respect there is a need for widespread diffusion and scaling of PV technology to address global challenges of sustainability and energy poverty (IEA, 2010). Thus sustainable technologies such as PV will be fundamental to energy transitions but key question arises as to how they can become widely adopted. This leads us to the main research question How has the PV niche developed in India and what are the different dimensions and mechanisms through which it can upscale and transform the dominant sociotechnical energy regime? Research framework In the past the transitions studies framework has been applied for sustainability transitions in developed nations (Netherlands, U.K. and other EU nations),but to apply the framework to developing nations such as India will require lot of modifications. An important challenge is to connect the sustainability agenda with the agenda of low carbon development, poverty reduction and local community development and capacity building. This is however difficult in context of developing nations due to multiple institutional failures, politics involved in steering transitions and lack of know how to build viable niches. Currently lots of initiatives are going on in the form of sustainability experiments (Planned initiatives which embody a highly novel socio technical configuration which is likely to lead to substantial sustainability 3 gains). However an important question is to understand how experiments and niche can up scale. (Berkhout et al, 2010; Raven et al, 2010; Romijn et al, 2008).Little is currently known about the phenomenon of up scaling specially in the context of developing countries. Furthermore the concepts from transition studies have been mainly applied in developed nations. This research is an important step in understanding key barriers, dimensions and mechanisms in up scaling of niches and experiments in the context of developing nations such as India. To answer the research question we develop a framework based on existing literature on transition studies, social and sustainable entrepreneurship, strategic management, bottom of pyramid and development studies and develop insights into upscaling using the methodology which is discussed below. The theoretical framework developed tries to link upscaling at the niche level i.e. meso level with the level of experiment i.e. micro level since this dual perspective at the micro as well as the meso level complement each other. Methodology and data collection We use the case study methodology as the main guiding analytical approach (Yin, 2003).Data collection included qualitative and quantitative sources including academic publications, primary and secondary sources (e.g.