Burma Policy Briefing Nr 6 May 2011 Burma's New Government: Prospects for Governance and Peace in Ethnic States On 30 March 2011, Burma/Myanmar’s1 ruling junta, the State Peace and Develop- Conclusions and Recommendations ment Council, dissolved itself and handed Two months after a new government took over power to an elected, quasi-civilian over the reins of power in Burma, it is too government. Than Shwe retired, relin- early to make any definitive assessment of quishing his head of state and commander- the prospects for improved governance in-chief roles, and even his rank – stating and peace in ethnic areas. Initial signs that from now on he would be referred to give some reason for optimism, but the as “U Than Shwe” not “Senior General”. difficulty of overcoming sixty years of Most of the international discussion has conflict and strongly-felt grievances and focussed on whether these changes repre- deep suspicions should not be underesti- sent the beginnings of a process of mated. ‘genuine’ democratic transition, or whether The economic and geostrategic realities this was merely “old wine in a new bottle”. are changing fast, and they will have a Much of the analysis has focussed on the fundamental impact – positive and extent to which Than Shwe will continue to negative – on Burma’s borderlands. But call the shots on major decisions going unless ethnic communities are able to forward. have much greater say in the governance There has been less analysis on what is per- of their affairs, and begin to see tangible haps the most important challenge facing benefits from the massive development the country: addressing ethnic minority projects in their areas, peace and broad- grievances and resolving the multiple, based development will remain elusive. decades-long conflicts. This paper takes an initial look at what the prospects are in this The new decentralized governance struc- area, two months after the new government tures have the potential to make a positive took office. Of course, any analysis at this contribution in this regard, but it is early stage can only be tentative, but there unclear if they can evolve into sufficiently have already been a number of sufficiently powerful and genuinely representative important developments – the first sessions bodies quickly enough to satisfy ethnic of the legislatures, the appointment of nationality aspirations. standing committees, and the appointment There has been renewed fighting in Shan of local governments – to make such an State, and there are warning signs that analysis worthwhile. more ethnic ceasefires could break down. Two key areas will be assessed: firstly, the Negotiations with armed groups and an composition and functioning of the new improved future for long-marginalized governance structures, particularly the ethnic populations is the only way that decentralized legislative and executive insti- peace can be achieved. Burma Policy Briefing | 1 tutions, and the impact that these could Areas and National Races – saying that his have on the governance of ethnic minority government must “convince the people areas; and secondly, the status of the from the border areas of the government’s ceasefires and ongoing insurgencies, and goodwill efforts for peace and stability and the prospects for peace. development so that they can come to cooperate with the Union government and POSITIVE INITIAL SIGNALS state and region governments with under- standing”.3 One of the first issues that the new Presi- dent Thein Sein spoke about in his inaugu- This is not a new committee: it was formed ral address to the congress was the ethnic in 1989, and had until now been chaired by nationality question: Than Shwe. But the language has shifted noticeably. Compare Thein Sein’s com- As you know, national brethren remained ments above with Than Shwe’s comments united in the struggles to liberate the to the committee in 2007, where there was nation from the rule of the colonialists no recognition of problems, only talk of and regained independence. But, in the success: post-independence period, national races involved in armed conflicts among them- National race armed groups began re- [selves] for about five decades due to turning to the legal fold one after another, dogmatism, sectarian strife and racism and they are now carrying out develop- instead of rebuilding the nation. In conse- ment tasks hand in hand with the govern- quence, the people were going through the ment. Thanks to extensive implementa- hell of untold miseries. tion of development tasks, there has been mutual understanding and trust between He went on to say that “we will give top one national race and another along with priority to national unity”.2 While it re- stability and peace. … Border areas are mains to be seen how this will be translated enjoying unprecedented development in into concrete policy, it is an important all aspects at present.4 recognition of the importance – indeed, the primacy – of the ethnic question. However, after decades of conflict, ethnic grievances run deep, and events leading up Subsequently, on 23 April the President to the change of government in some cases chaired a meeting of a high-level committee exacerbated those grievances – including tasked with overseeing the issue – the the failure to register ethnic parties in some Central Committee for Progress of Border areas, and pressure on ceasefire groups to Box 1: Chief Ministers of the States State Name and party Kachin State U La John Ngan Hsai [USDP] Kachin businessman Kayah State U Khin Maung Oo [USDP] Prominent Kayah individual Kayin State Brig-Gen Zaw Min [Military legislator] Ex-Chairman, Kayin State PDC Chin State U Hong Ngai [USDP] Ex-Chairman, Chin State PDC (retd. Brig-Gen) Mon State U Ohn Myint [USDP] Ex-Minister for Mines (retd. Maj-Gen) Rakhine State U Hla Maung Tin [USDP] Retired army Colonel Shan State U Aung Myat [USDP] Retired Lt-Col, Light Infantry Division 66 2 | Burma Policy Briefing join the controversial Border Guard Force legislative functions, including during scheme without any resolution of the the periods when the legislatures them- underlying political issues. Furthermore, selves are in recess; they mostly include brutal counterinsurgency tactics continue legislators from ethnic parties. (So far, to be used by the military in the ethnic committees that have been established borderlands, meaning that conciliatory are the Legislative Committees, the language from central government in the National Races Affairs Committees and Burmese capital of Nay Pyi Taw will be the Representatives Vetting Committees.) insufficient to convince many citizens and communities of “government goodwill”. 3. Through their positions in state govern- ments. A number of ministerial portfo- PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVED ETHNIC lios in the seven states have been given to legislators from ethnic nationality par- GOVERNANCE ties. (A list is provided in box 3 on p. 4.) Under the 2008 Constitution, which came into force on 31 January 2011, certain legis- Under the constitution, the decentralized lative and executive powers were decentral- powers are rather limited. Nevertheless, ized to the region/state level. Thus, the they include a number of areas that can seven ethnic-minority states (like the seven have a significant impact on people’s lives: Burman-majority regions) now have their land (including allocation of land and own state legislatures and state govern- agricultural loans), local business (small ments. business loans and some taxation), cultural promotion, and municipal issues. These structures are dominated by the government’s Union Solidarity and How this decentralization process will Development Party (USDP). All of the function in practice remains uncertain. speakers of the state legislatures are from While the division of powers is defined in the USDP, as are the chief ministers, who general terms in the constitution and in head up the state executives (with the legislation, the detailed implementation – exception of the Chief Minister for Kayin and, in particular, how administrative [Karen] State, who is a military legislator). functions will be divided and coordinated See boxes 1 and 2 for details. The situation between central government ministries and is thus very far from the federal autonomy regional governments – has not been or self-governance demanded by many worked out in practice. It seems that it will ethnic leaders. be resolved on a gradual, ad hoc basis, and it could be a source of contestation and Nevertheless, ethnic political parties will have some limited influence over these structures, in the following ways: Box 2: Speakers of the State Legislatures 1. Through their seats in the legislatures. State Name and party None of the ethnic nationality parties Kachin State U Rawan Jone [USDP] have legislative majorities, but they Kayah State U Kyaw Swe [USDP] control sizeable blocs. In three states – Chin, Kayin, Rakhine – the ethnic par- Kayin State U Saw Aung Kyaw Min [USDP] ties collectively control more seats than Chin State U Hauk Khin Kham [USDP] the USDP. Mon State U Kyin Pe [USDP] 2. Through their membership of legislative Rakhine State U Htein Lin [USDP] standing committees. Standing commit- Shan State U Sai Lone Saing [USDP] tees are appointed to carry out certain Burma Policy Briefing | 3 confusion, in the short term. views of figures such as Buddhist abbots, leaders of other religions, and civil so- Confusingly, different regions and states ciety leaders may carry considerable have chosen to establish