I BEG TO DIFFER: UNDERSTANDING DISAGREEMENT, AGREEMENT, AND EMOTIONAL APPEALS IN GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATION by Anne-Bennett Smithson A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Communication Committee: ___________________________________________ Director ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ Department Chairperson ___________________________________________ Program Director ___________________________________________ Dean, College of Humanities and Social Sciences Date: _____________________________________ Spring Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA I Beg to Differ: Understanding Disagreement, Agreement, and Emotional Appeals in Gubernatorial Campaign Communication A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Anne-Bennett Smithson Master of Arts Georgetown University, 2012 Bachelor of Arts University of Kentucky, 2004 Director: Emily Vraga, Professor Department of Communication Spring Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2017 Anne-Bennett Smithson All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION The research and writing of this dissertation is dedicated to: my husband, J. Austin Smithson, who has never stopped believing in me, my parents William B. and Marilyn W. Cook, who encourage me daily, my darling sons, J. William Smithson and Samuel B. Smithson, who keep me grounded and excited for the future. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the many friends, family members, and supporters who have helped me on this journey, especially Dr. Emily Vraga, Dr. Katherine Rowan, and Dr. Xiaoquan Zhao. Their advice and guidance was of invaluable help. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ................................................................................................................... vii Abstract .............................................................................................................................. ix Chapter One: Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Chapter Two: Literature Review ...................................................................................... 11 Chapter Three: Election Characteristics ........................................................................... 36 Chapter Four: Hypotheses and Research Questions ......................................................... 49 Chapter Five: Methodology .............................................................................................. 55 Chapter Six: Primary Election Results ............................................................................. 71 Chapter Seven: Discussion of Primary Election Results ................................................ 104 Chapter Eight: General Election Results ........................................................................ 118 Chapter Nine: Discussion of General Election Results .................................................. 148 Chapter Ten: Discussion of the Primary and General Elections ..................................... 161 Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 177 References ....................................................................................................................... 184 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Television Advertisements and Social Networking Sites ................................... 48 Table 2. Governor Social Networking Usage ................................................................... 56 Table 3. Primary Data Collection ..................................................................................... 58 Table 4. Primary Vote Percentages ................................................................................... 60 Table 5. Reliability............................................................................................................ 69 Table 6. Total Candidate Tweets in the Primary Election ................................................ 71 Table 7. Total and Average Tweets by Candidate Type in Primary Universe ................. 73 Table 8. Disagreement and Party Affiliation in the Primary ............................................ 89 Table 9. Characteristics of Disagreeable Tweets - Party Affiliation: Primary ................. 91 Table 10. Agreement and Party Affiliation in the Primary ............................................... 92 Table 11. Characteristics of Agreeable Tweets - Party Affiliation: Primary .................... 92 Table 12. Emotional Appeals and Party Affiliation in the Primary Election ................... 94 Table 13. Disagreement and Incumbency Status in the Primary Election ........................ 95 Table 14. Characteristics of Disagreeable Tweets & Incumbency Status: Primary ......... 97 Table 15. Chi Square Statistics for Agreement and Incumbency: Primary Election ........ 99 Table 16. Characteristics of Agreeable Tweets and Incumbency Status: Primary ......... 100 Table 17. Significance for Incumbency and Emotional Appeals: Primary Election ...... 101 Table 18. Total Candidate Tweets in General Election .................................................. 119 Table 19. Average Tweets by Candidate Type in General Election Universe ............... 120 Table 20. Chi Square Statistics for Disagreement and Party Affiliation: General ......... 134 Table 21. Characteristics of Disagreeable Tweets Based on Party Affiliation: General 136 Table 22. Agreement and Party Affiliation in the General Election ............................... 137 Table 23. Characteristics of Agreeable Tweets and Party Affiliation: General ............. 137 Table 24. Emotional Appeals and Party Affiliation in the General Election.................. 139 Table 25. Chi Square Statistics for Disagreement and Incumbency: Primary ................ 140 Table 26. Characteristics of Disagreeable Tweets and Incumbency Status: General ..... 142 Table 27. Chi Square Statistics for Agreement and Incumbency: General .................... 143 Table 28. Characteristics of Agreeable Tweets based on Incumbency Status ................ 144 Table 29. Significance for Incumbency and Emotional Appeals: General ..................... 146 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 1. Breakdown of Tweet Type in the Primary Election .......................................... 75 Figure 2. Characteristics of Tweets Containing Disagreement in the Primary Election as Compared to Full Sample ................................................................................................. 76 Figure 3. Type, Target, and Tone of Tweets Containing Disagreement in the Primary Election ............................................................................................................................. 78 Figure 4. Characteristics of Tweets Containing Agreement in the Primary Election ....... 79 Figure 5. Tweets Containing Emotional Appeals in the Primary Election ....................... 80 Figure 6. Percentage of Disagreeable Tweets Containing Each Emotion in the Primary Election ............................................................................................................................. 81 Figure 7. Presentation of Anger in the Context of Disagreement in the Primary Election82 Figure 8. Presentation of Fear in the Context of Disagreement in the Primary Election . 82 Figure 9. Percentage of Policy Tweets Containing Each Emotion in the Primary Election ........................................................................................................................................... 86 Figure 10. Percentage of Personal Characteristics Tweets Containing Each Emotion in the Primary Election ............................................................................................................... 87 Figure 11. Percentage of Republican and Democratic Tweets Containing Each Emotion in the Primary Election ..................................................................................................... 93 Figure 12. Percentage of Incumbency Tweets Containing Each Emotion in the Primary Election ........................................................................................................................... 101 Figure 13. Analysis of Tweet Type in the General Election........................................... 122 Figure 14. Characteristics of Tweets from the General Election Containing Disagreement ......................................................................................................................................... 123 Figure 15. Type, Target & Tone of Tweets Containing Disagreement in General Election ......................................................................................................................................... 124 Figure 16. Characteristics of Tweets Containing Agreement in the General Election ... 126 Figure 17. Tweets Containing Emotional Appeals in the General Election ................... 127 Figure 18. Presentation of Anger in the Context of Disagreement in the General Election ........................................................................................................................................