Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2016-03 Evaluation of compulsory military service in Turkey using a population representation model Engin, Murat Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/48514 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EVALUATION OF COMPULSORY MILITARY SERVICE IN TURKEY USING A POPULATION REPRESENTATION MODEL by Murat Engin March 2016 Thesis Advisor: Mark J. Eitelberg Second Reader: William D. Hatch Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) March 2016 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS EVALUATION OF COMPULSORY MILITARY SERVICE IN TURKEY USING A POPULATION REPRESENTATION MODEL 6. AUTHOR(S) Murat Engin 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943–5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT Most Western states have adopted an all-volunteer military force in response to shifting security needs, asymmetric threats, sociopolitical trends, technological advancements, and economic demands. In contrast, Turkey has depended on a military draft since its inception. Some observers have recently questioned whether Turkey’s draft is due for major overhaul. Critics claim that Turkey’s military should have more high-quality professional soldiers and that its draft is fundamentally unfair, somewhat ineffective, and out of step with modern times. In essence, they ask whether Turkey’s old ways of populating the military can be improved. The present study uses a Population Representation Model, first developed in the United States, to evaluate Turkey’s military draft and the potential to establish an all-volunteer force. The model includes three basic criteria: political legitimacy, social equity, and military effectiveness. The results of applying these criteria to the situation in Turkey reveal relatively strong legitimacy under the current draft, specific issues relating to equity, and certain changes in the current draft that may possibly improve effectiveness. Nevertheless, the study indicates that abolishing compulsory military service in Turkey could create several complicated problems. Further study is recommended regarding the effect of contracting privates on the Turkish Armed Forces. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Turkish Armed Forces, all volunteer force, draft, conscription, compulsory service, population PAGES representation, perfect representation, political legitimacy, social equity, military effectiveness 129 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited EVALUATION OF COMPULSORY MILITARY SERVICE IN TURKEY USING A POPULATION REPRESENTATION MODEL Murat Engin Captain, Turkish Army B.S., Turkish Military Academy, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2016 Approved by: Mark J. Eitelberg Thesis Advisor William D. Hatch Second Reader William D. Hatch Academic Associate, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Most Western states have adopted an all-volunteer military force in response to shifting security needs, asymmetric threats, sociopolitical trends, technological advancements, and economic demands. In contrast, Turkey has depended on a military draft since its inception. Some observers have recently questioned whether Turkey’s draft is due for major overhaul. Critics claim that Turkey’s military should have more high- quality professional soldiers and that its draft is fundamentally unfair, somewhat ineffective, and out of step with modern times. In essence, they ask whether Turkey’s old ways of populating the military can be improved. The present study uses a Population Representation Model, first developed in the United States, to evaluate Turkey’s military draft and the potential to establish an all- volunteer force. The model includes three basic criteria: political legitimacy, social equity, and military effectiveness. The results of applying these criteria to the situation in Turkey reveal relatively strong legitimacy under the current draft, specific issues relating to equity, and certain changes in the current draft that may possibly improve effectiveness. Nevertheless, the study indicates that abolishing compulsory military service in Turkey could create several complicated problems. Further study is recommended regarding the effect of contracting privates on the Turkish Armed Forces. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. PURPOSE ...................................................................................................2 B. METHODS OF ANALYSIS .....................................................................2 C. STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS .............................................................2 II. LITERATURE REVIEW .....................................................................................7 A. BACKGROUND INFORMATION .......................................................11 1. The Structure of Turkish Military .............................................11 a. General ..............................................................................11 b. Manpower and Procurement ............................................11 c. Manpower in Numbers .....................................................13 2. The Draft System in Turkey .......................................................16 a. General Principles.............................................................16 b. History of Draft in Turkey ................................................16 c. Military Service Periods ....................................................18 d. Service Types .....................................................................19 B. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................21 1. History of Conscription in the United States .............................22 a. Revolutionary War ............................................................22 b. Civil War ............................................................................23 c. First World War ................................................................24 d. Second World War ............................................................24 e. Korean War .......................................................................25 f. Vietnam War .....................................................................26 g. Post-Vietnam Era ..............................................................26 2. Population Representation Model ..............................................28 a. General ..............................................................................28 b. Elements of PRM ..............................................................29 C. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................32 III. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS .................................................................................35 A. THE MILITARY AND SOCIETY IN TURKEY .................................36 1. Military Nation .............................................................................36 2. Soldiers as the Saviors of the State and the Atatürk Effect .....39 3. Service as a Sacred Duty .............................................................42 4. Rituals ...........................................................................................45 B. RECENT TRENDS ..................................................................................48 vii 1. Trials of Service Members for an Alleged Military Coup ........48 2. Current Fight against Terror .....................................................50 3. Women’s