T TarnoTek Perfect Devices: The Amazing Endurance of Hard Disk Drives Giora J. Tarnopolsky TARNOTEK & INSIC - Information Storage Industry Consortium www.tarnotek.com [email protected] www.insic.org 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Outline z Perfect Inventions z Hard Disk Drives & other consumer products z Hard Disk Drives: Developments 1990 - 2004 z Marketplace z How the technology advances have affected the product offerings z Technology z How market opportunities propelled basic research forward z Disk Drives at the Boundaries z INSIC and Data Storage Systems Research z Closing Remarks: Hard Disk Drive Endurance Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\2 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies PERFECT INVENTIONS Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\3 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Nearly Perfect Inventions z Certain inventions are created “perfect:” their operation relies on a fundamental principle that cannot be improved, or does not merit improvement z This assures their endurance … z … and defines their domain of development, the limits of applicability of the invention z Examples of perfect inventions are the bicycle, the umbrella, the book, and the disk drive Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\4 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Bicycle z Gyroscope effect assures stability of the rider z Under torque T, the bike turns but does not fall z Low ratio of vehicle mass to rider mass z ~ 15 % (as compared to ~2,200% for car) z Efficient r T z Rugged r dL z Mass-produced r dt L z Affordable Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\5 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Development Columbia Light Roadster 1892 Draisienne 1817 z dL/dt = T cannot be Santa Cruz improved upon 2002 Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\6 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Disk Drive z Magnetic hysteresis z 2-D travel with only one linear motion z High volumetric density z Random access z Mass-produced ÎFew-hundred $/box z Non-volatile ÎNo vibration isolation z Affordable Îno T stabilization z Rugged ÎThese properties define drives Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\7 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Development ColumbiaSeagate’s Light ST506 Roadster 1979 1892 STSanta ’Cuda Cruz V IBMDraisienne RAMAC 1817 1953 20022002 Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\8 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Hard Disk Drives Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\9 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Hard Disk Drives: Nanotechnology z In a disk drive, the data is recorded in concentric tracks z Track pitch, TP, is the distance between track centers z Bit length is the shortest Bit length recorded bit TP auxiliary fields: servo, ... user data fields Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\10 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Hard Disk Drives now: 60Gb/in2 z Areal density, AD, is the number of magnetic bits per unit area 2 z At 60 Gb/in , the track density is 100,000 tracks per inch, and the bit density along the track is 600,000 bits per inch (100 ktpi x 600 kbpi) TP z TP = 10 µin = 254 nm B z B = 1.7 µin = 42 nm z The servo tracking mechanism 1-σ error (or misregistration) is 8.5 nm Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\11 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies HDD’s & other consumer products z 5 megapixel digital camera: pixel ~2.7 x 2.7 µm2 , or 680 times less “dense” than bit storage 1 pixel = 680 magnetic bits z The focusing accuracy of the lens-to-CCD distance is ±7.5 µm, or 882 times lower precision than HDD tracking z 5 megapixel camera, $379. 200 GB drive, $100. ~ x1,000 mechanism, 1/4 price. Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\12 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Technology Advances Rapidly Deployed into Products Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\13 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies The Future of Hard Disk Drive Technology Lab Demos: Possible HDD Areal Density Progression 100000.0 Laboratory Demonstrations e lin e at 10000.0 G r CA ) % 2 0 1 Terabit per inch2 goal 5 e 1000.0 in G l CA % 30 100.0 highest in products Areal Density (Gb/ in Areal Density (Gb/ 70 perpendicular recording now 10.0 heat-assisted mag recording patterned media ? 1.0 self-organized arrays ? Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Date Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\14 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies $ of HD Drive ≥ $ Components Price of HDD, 95 mm Desktop ≤ 7,200 rpm Moderate 00 decline in ,0 1 unit cost Seagate’s $/Drive 100 plans 1TB, $200 2006 one platter HGST Maxtor /one head, Seagate WDC 30GB 0 1 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 (C) 2003-2004 TarnoTek Date Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\15 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Precipitous decline in $/GB Cost per Gigabyte, 95 mm Desktop ≤ 7,200 rpm 100.00 HGST Maxtor 10.00 Seagate WDC 1.00 $/GB 0.10 0.01 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 (C) 2002-2004 TarnoTek Time Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\16 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Precipitous decline in $/GB Cost per Gigabyte, 95 mm Desktop ≤ 7,200 rpm 100.00 HGST Maxtor 10.00 Seagate WDC 1.00 $/GB - 40%/ year $15*exp(-0.53*(yyyy-1998)) ? 0.10 Factor: 0.60/year 0.01 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 (C) 2002-2004 TarnoTek Time Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\17 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies “Box” Capacity Growth HDD Capacity vs. Time, 95 mm Desktop ≤ 7,200 rpm 1000 HGST 400 GB 100 All HDD Early HDD 10 HDD Capacity (GB) 1 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Time (C) 2003-2004 TarnoTek Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\18 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Capacity Growth: Sustainable? HDD Capacity vs. Time, 95 mm Desktop ≤ 7,200 rpm 1000 y = 6.6 e0.6584(yyyy-Jan HGST ? 400 GB 98) Rate: 93%/year Seagate’s Factor: 1.93/year plans 100 2 All HDD Early HDD 10 HDD Capacity (GB) Toshiba’s 0.85 inch 1 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 (C) 2003-2004 TarnoTek Time Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\19 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Product Capacity vs. Normalized Cost Capacity vs. Price/GB z Capacity inversely 1000 2000/ 2004 95 mm Desktop proportional to Apple I-Pod drives Freecom USB C_Card $/GB Hitachi µ-drive Compact Flash z AD growth 100 USB Drives Secure Digital invested almost exclusively in y = 96.533x-0.7974 capacity growth R2 = 0.885 10 z Increased AD & miniaturization 1998/ Capacity (GB) ? have not reduced 1999 1 drives cost at desirable capacities z No 10 GB, $5 HDD products 0.1 z Beyond some 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 capacity, capacity Price per Gigabyte ($/GB) (C) 2003-2004 TarnoTek itself is not a customer need. Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\20 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Magnetic Areal Density Progression Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\21 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies Areal Density Growth z Laboratory magnetic areal density has grown from 1 Gb/in2 in 1990 to ~170 Gb/in2 by December 2003 2 z It is 60 to 70 Gb/in in current products 2 z Feasibility assessments of 1 Tb/in under intense scrutiny, stated INSIC research goal 2 z 10, 50 Tb/in have been suggested for HAMR, Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording HDD future predicated on continuing growth of the areal density. Or does it? Giora J. Tarnopolsky HDD - Perfect Devices © 2002-2004\14 April 2004\22 TARNOTEK 2004 - Mass Storage Systems & Technologies From 1 to 170 Gb/in2: 1990 - 2003 Hitachi PMR Gb/in2 Superior achievement 600 Fujitsu IBM Log- log plot of track 500 SEG / Perp ReadRite density and linear density 300 Hitachi Long. 1k Wood 12/2003 Negative slope lines: 200 Mallary P Gao & Bertram P P 500 constant AD Victora1 100 P Positive slope lines: BAR P constant BAR 2 200 -9 50 4 Low AD demos: 10 , 30 100 much better BER than 8 75 recent demos 20 recent demos Track Density (ktpi) Density Track 50 Since 1 Gb/in2, the BAR 12 16 20 25 40 10 30 has changed from ~ 25 to ~ 4 to 6 1991 10 20 5 Track density has grown 100200300 500 700 1000 2000 3000 faster than linear density Linear Density (kbpi) © 2002-2004 TarnoTek Giora J.