DOCUMENT RESUME ED 292 702 SO 018 615 AUTHOR Krauss, EllisS. TITLE Selecting Japan's New Prime Minister. Prepared as Background for the Liberal Democratic Party PresidentialElections. INSTITUTION ASIA Society, New York, N.Y. PUB DATE Oct 87 NOTE 39p.; Written for the Asia Society Media Relations Program. PUB TYPE Reports -Descriptive (141) EDRS PRICE MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Asian History; Asian Studies; Elections; Foreign Countries; Government Role; *International Relations; Political Influences; Political Issues; Political Power; Politics; Social Studies; Social Systems; Voting; World Affairs IDENTIFIERS *Japan ABSTRACT Divided into four major parts, this document explains the significance of the Liberal :)emocratic Party (LDP) in Japan. Part 1 indicates that the LDP has governed Japan since 19b5 and controls 445 seats in the 764 seat parliament. The selection of the prime minister, chosen from within the ruling party, is seen as vital to U.S. interests. For example U.S. - Japanese trade totaled 109 billion dollars in 1986. The last prime minister, Yesuhiro Nakasone, presided over major changes in both politics and Japanese society. The primary concern for the United States is whether the new prime minister can reduce the current tension in U.S.--Japanese relations. Part 2 of the report describes the selection process for the prime ministers by the party members. Part 3 provides profiles of the four candidates and describes the legacy of Nakasone. Part 4 outlines the key issues and implications of the election for the United States. The new prime minister will face several key tasks that include restructuring the economy, stabilizing the yen, and maintaining a base of support. Party support comes from farmers and rural residents, and the electoral process is candidate centered rather than party centered. LDP is the most conservative party but is perceived as flexible and responsive to public pressure. Party power is limited, and the bureaucracy plays a greater role in drafting legislation than in the United States. Appended are an economic fact sheet, a genealogy chart of LPD's fiv' major factions from 1965-87, and a list of Japan's prime ministers from 1946-1987. (NL) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supp1ied by EDRS are the best that can be made * * from the original document. * *********************************************************************** LIIIIIIIN- itTHE fitAS IA "(liv SOCIETY MEDIA BRIEFING SELECTING JAPAN'S NEW PRIME MINISTER Prepared as Background for the Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Elections U S DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of Educational Research and improvement EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CE NTF1 (ERIC) This document has teen reproduced u received from the person or organization originating it r Minor changes have been made to improve October ' 987 reproduction quality Points of view or opinions stated in thdocu- ment do not necessarily represent official OERI position or policy by "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS MATERIAL HA:' BEEN G NTED BY Ellis S. Krauss /6d &EM!6 (7760/266 TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURC' INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC Produced and Distributed by the Media Relations Program of The Asia Society A%IA Soviets is a nonprofit and nonpartisan .rational educational organization dedicated to increasing Americanass areness and undcratanding 4. Asia. ';,e Society's Meuia Relations Program ssorks ssith print and broadcast journalists to facilitatemore accurate and in-depth media coscrage of Asian affair: and IJ.S.-Asia relations. 2 BEST COPY AVAILABLE SELECTING JAPAN'S NEW PRIME MINISTER Prepared as Background for the Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Elections October 1987 by Ellis S. Krauss* Written for The Asia Society's Media Relations Program 'Ellis S. Krause is Professor of Political Scienceat the University of Pittsburgh and has been a visiting researcher at Tokyo,Kyoto, Keio, and Sophia universities in Japan.He has published four books, including Conflict in Japan (Honolulu: University of HawaiiPress, 1984; co-edited with Thomas Rohlen and Patricia Steinhoff) and theforthcoming Democracy la Japan (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press; co-editedwith Takeshi Ishida). His current research projects focuson television news and politica in postwar Japan, political elites and policymaking,and local industrial policy in Japan and Sweden. The views expressed it this paperare the author's and donot necessarily represent the views of The Asia Society. This Media Briefing is the most recentin a series of publications that The Asia Society prepares as backgroundto newsworthy issues and events related to Asia and U.S.-Asia relations. Other briefing packets in this series include: The Thirteenth Chinese Communist PartyCongress (forthcoming) *Recent Developments in the Philippines *Rising Trade Tensions: Asian Perspectives *South Korea and the United States *U.S.-Asia Trade and the American Economy Additionally, The Asia Society stands readyto provide briefings, additional background materials, and assistancein identifying specialists on Asia for consultationor broadcast appearances. This background paper should not be reproducedin full without the written permission of The Asia Society. Otherwise there are no restrictions on its use. When materials fromthis packet are quoted or cited, please cite the author and The AsiaSociety. For additional information, callor write Terrence R. George, The Asia Society, 725 Park Avenue, New York, New York 10021; (212)288-6400. 4 CONTENTS I. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ThE LDP ELECTIONS 1 II. THE MAKING OF JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER 4 Parliament and the Prime Minister 4 The Support Base and Policies of the LDP 5 Limitations on the Prime Minister's Power.. 7 Factions: Determinants of Political Leadership 9 Factional Coalitions and Semi-CollectiveLeadership 11 III. FILLING NAKASONE'S SHOES: THE CANDIDATES FORSUCCESSOR 13 Nakasone's Legacy 13 Nakasone's Innovative Tactics 14 Profiles of the Candidates 17 Noboru Takeshita 17 Shintaro Abe 18 Miyazawa 18 Susumu Nikaido 19 Comparing the Candidates 20 IV. PITY THE WINNER: THE CHALLENGES AHEAD 22 The Japanese Response to Trade Frictions 22 Six Key Tasks for the New Prime Minister 24 Implications for the United States 26 App radix I: Economic Fact Sheet 28 Appendix II: Postwar LDP Factions and Prime Ministers 30 Appendix III:Selected Further Reading 32 Appendix IV: List of Specialists on Japanese Politics and U.S.-Japan Relations 33 5 I. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE LDP ELFCTIOKS Prime Minister Yaauhiro Nakasone, whoformed his first cabineton November 27, 1982, plans to retireon October 30 both as prime minister of Japan and as president of the LiberalDemocratic Party (LDP), the conservative party that has governed Japanfor the past 32 years. Because the LDP has some 445 seats in Japan'stwo-house, 764-seat parliament (the Diet), the person selectedas LDP party president for the next two-year term will be elected primeminister by majority vote in the Diet. The LDP will inaugurate its new president ina convention scheduled for Octobar 31. Selection of the LDP leader, and thus theprime minister, is almost exclusively determined bypower politics of the party's personal leadership factions. The LDP, although with milltons of *members,' technically on the books,is controlled and led by its parliamentary representatives. LDP Diet members belong to factions, whose main purpose is to get their leader electedparty president. In this election, three major LDP faction leaders--LDPExecutive Council Chairman Shintaro Abe, Finance MinisterKiichi Miyazawa, and LDP Secretary General Noboru Takeshita- -and possibly former LDP Vice President Susumu Nikaido are vying to succeedNakasone. Takeshita, leader of the largest faction, is thecurrent favorite. Abe and Miyazawa bring to the race greater foreign policyexpertise, but their ability to win will depend more on politicalmaneuvering and deals with other faction leaders than on any specific qualificationfor office. With his small faction of under twenty members,Nikaido has little -1- 6 chance of winning, but if he can musterthe necessary 50 supporters among the Diet's LDP members, he can forcea nationwide party primary on October 28 that will weed out the weakestcandidate before the convention. If that happens, LDP Diet membersare to meet on October 30 to select a party president among the remainingthree contenders. If Nikaido fails, there would be only threecandidates, and the race would be decided only by Diet members at theconvention or perhaps by a deal among the three leading candidates prior to the convention. The outcome of this election is crucial both forJapan and the United States. Short of a nuclear war, no other country isas important to the United States and has as much impacton the daily lives of Americans as Japan. Yet the new prime minister will assume hispost at a time of tremendous strain in the U.S.-Japan relationship,largely due to economic issues. .'span's economic significance to the UnitedStates has increased phenomenally in the last few years. U.S.-Japan trade totaled $109 billion in 1986. In 1986 the net flow of Japanesecapital abroad reached $113 billion, a 66 percent increaseover 1985. Japan's direct foreign investment in 1986 totaled $22.3 billion, of which $10.2billion went to the United States. One-third of Japan's total directforeign investment is in the United States. Much of this capital comes from Japan'ssuccess as an exporting nation. Japan's overall world trade surplus in fiscalyear 1986 (ending