The Gulf Military Balance: Volume III The Gulf Military Balance: Volume The Gulf Military CORDESMAN, SHELALA, AND MOHAMED CORDESMAN, Balance 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW| Washington DC 20036 Volume III: The Gulf and the t. (202) 887-0200 | f. (202) 775-3199 | www.csis.org Arabian Peninsula ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Lanham, MD 20706 t. (800) 462-6420 | f. (301) 429-5749 | www.rowman.com AUTHORS Cover photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/yeowatzup/4324097467/. Anthony H. Cordesman ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Robert M. Shelala ISBN 978-1-4422-2795-8 Omar Mohamed Ë|xHSLEOCy227958z v*:+:!:+:! A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy JANUARY 2014 Blank The Gulf Military Balance Volume III: The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula Authors Anthony H. Cordesman Robert M. Shelala Omar Mohamed A Report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy January 2014 ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in April 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2014 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-2795-8 (pb); 978-1-4422-2796-5 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com Table of Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................ viii Executive Summary ....................................................................................... ix Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 The US and the Arab Gulf States: Challenges and Interests .......................... 4 Enhanced US Partnership with the Southern Gulf States ....................................................... 4 The Impact of Terrorism and Other Threats ........................................................................... 5 Reacting to Evolving Threats .................................................................................................. 6 The Importance of Terrorism as a Threat to the Gulf ........................................................................................ 8 The Impact of Iran and Syria as Sponsors of State Terrorism and Pressures on Iraq ........................................ 9 Emphasizing the Middle East and Rebalancing the US Force Towards Asia ...................... 33 Continuing the Emphasis on the Gulf In Spite of Defense Budget Cuts ......................................................... 33 The US Central Command View ........................................................................................... 34 Cooperation by Country ........................................................................................................ 37 Using Arms Transfers to Build Partnerships ........................................................................ 39 Dealing With the Strengths and Weaknesses of Gulf Partners ............................................. 45 Southern Gulf Alignments With the US .......................................................................................................... 46 The Impact of the Divisions Between the Arab Gulf States ............................................................................ 49 The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Moves Towards Federation and Unity ............. 51 Movements Towards Enhanced Cooperation .................................................................................................. 51 GCC Relations with the US ............................................................................................................................ 52 GCC Relations with Iran ................................................................................................................................. 53 Movements Towards Greater Unity and “Federation” .................................................................................... 54 Iranian Interests in the Gulf .......................................................................... 56 Internal Dynamics Affecting US and Iranian Competition .......................... 57 Sectarian, Ethnic, Tribal, and Regional Divisions ................................................................ 64 Resource Trends .................................................................................................................... 67 Economic Trends ................................................................................................................... 72 The Need for Country-by-Country Case Studies ................................................................... 76 Saudi Arabia .................................................................................................. 77 A Long and Growing Strategic Partnership.......................................................................... 78 Saudi-Iranian Competition .................................................................................................... 82 The History of Saudi and Iranian Competition ..................................................................... 83 Tensions Over the Iranian Nuclear Program ................................................................................................... 83 Tensions Over Saudi Shia ............................................................................................................................... 84 Tensions Over Energy Resources ................................................................................................................... 85 Tensions Over the Hajj ................................................................................................................................... 86 Tensions Over Terrorism and Covert Operations............................................................................................ 86 Tensions Over Bahrain.................................................................................................................................... 87 Tensions Over Iraq .......................................................................................................................................... 88 Tensions Over Yemen and Saudi Perceptions of a Wider Threat from Instability in Yemen ......................... 91 Tensions Over the Arab-Israeli Peace Process ................................................................................................ 94 Saudi Arabia’s Security Relations with the US ..................................................................... 95 Military Cooperation ....................................................................................................................................... 95 Problems in Force Development ..................................................................................................................... 99 Missile Defense ............................................................................................................................................. 100 Gulf Unity ............................................................................................................................ 100 Cooperation in Counterterrorism .................................................................................................................. 101 Policy Implications for the US ............................................................................................ 107 Kuwait ......................................................................................................... 113 Kuwait’s Relations with Iran ............................................................................................... 115 iv | Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala, and Omar Mohamed Kuwait’s Relations with the US ........................................................................................... 117 Military Cooperation ..................................................................................................................................... 118 Problems in Force Development ..................................................................................................................