Like Share Vote cover 3/11/14 7:03 pm Page 1 Across Europe, low voter turnout in European and national VoteLike, Share, | elections is a growing concern. Many citizens are disengaged “A digitally empowered from the political process, threatening the health of our democracies. At the same time, the increasingly prominent role that social media plays in our lives and its function as a civil society could new digital public space offers new opportunities to re- engage non-voters. reconnect Europeans This report explores the potential for social media to ·Louis Reynolds Jamie Bartlett · Jonathan Birdwell support efforts to get out the vote. It lays out which groups need to be the focus of voter mobilisation efforts, and makes the case for using social media campaigning as a core part of with democracy…” our voter mobilisation efforts. The research draws on a series of social media voter mobilisation workshops run by Demos with small third sector organisations in six target countries across Europe, as well as expert interviews, literature review LIKE, SHARE, VOTE and social media analysis. Having affirmed the need for and utility of social media voter turnout efforts, Like, Share, Vote establishes key Jamie Bartlett principles and techniques for a successful social media campaign: how to listen to the digital discourse of your Jonathan Birdwell audience, how to use quizzes and interactive approaches, how Louis Reynolds to micro-target specific groups and how to coordinate offline events with online campaigns. This report concludes that, with more of our social and political lives taking place online than ever before, failing to use social media to reinvigorate our democracy would be a real missed opportunity. Jamie Bartlett is Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos. Jonathan Birdwell is Head of the Citizenship and Political Participation programme at Demos. Louis Reynolds is a Researcher in the Citizenship and Political Participation programme at Demos. ISBN 978-1-909037-71-7 £10 © Demos 2014 Like Share Vote cover 3/11/14 7:03 pm Page 2 Supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations Demos is Britain’s leading cross-party think tank. We produce original research, publish innovative thinkers and host thought-provoking events. We have spent 20 years at the centre of the policy debate, with an overarching mission to bring politics closer to people. Demos is now exploring some of the most persistent frictions within modern politics, especially in those areas where there is a significant gap between the intuitions of the ordinary voter and political leaders. Can a liberal politics also be a popular politics? How can policy address widespread anxieties over social issues such as welfare, diversity and family life? How can a dynamic and open economy also produce good jobs, empower consumers and connect companies to the communities in which they operate? Our worldview is reflected in the methods we employ: we recognise that the public often have insights that the experts do not. We pride ourselves in working together with the people who are the focus of our research. Alongside quantitative research, Demos pioneers new forms of deliberative work, from citizens’ juries and ethnography to social media analysis. Demos is an independent, educational charity. In keeping with our mission, all our work is available to download for free under an open access licence and all our funders are listed in our yearly accounts. Find out more at www.demos.co.uk First published in 2014 © Demos. Some rights reserved Magdalen House, 136 Tooley Street, London, SE1 2TU, UK ISBN 978 1 909037 71 7 Series design by modernactivity Typeset by Chat Noir Design, Charente Set in Gotham Rounded and Baskerville 10 Cover paper: Flora Gardenia Text paper: Munken Premium White LIKE, SHARE, VOTE Jamie Bartlett Jonathan Birdwell Louis Reynolds Open access. Some rights reserved. As the publisher of this work, Demos wants to encourage the circulation of our work as widely as possible while retaining the copyright. We therefore have an open access policy which enables anyone to access our content online without charge. Anyone can download, save, perform or distribute this work in any format, including translation, without written permission. This is subject to the terms of the Demos licence found at the back of this publication. 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To find out more go to www.creativecommons.org Contents Acknowledgements 7 Executive summary 9 Introduction 15 1 Voter turnout trends in Europe: who needs mobilising? 19 2 Social media and voter mobilisation: does it work? 31 3 The capability gap: making the third sector social media savvy 41 4 Principles and techniques of running a social media voter campaign 49 Conclusion and recommendations 63 Annex: How did Twitter talk about the European elections? 65 Notes 81 References 97 7 Acknowledgments First and foremost we would like to thank Open Society Foundations for their generous support, without which this report would not have been possible. In particular we would like to thank Léonie van Tongeren, Peter Matjasˇicˇ, Heather Grabbe and Nadja Groot for all of their support and feedback during the research. The project would not have been possible without the expert guidance of our Steering Group members. We would like to thank Mike Sani, Nick Anstead, Alberto Nardelli, Megan Bentall, Mevan Babakar, Erin Marie Saltman, Roman Gerodimos, Philippe Marlière, Sarah de Lange, Christian Fuchs, Maria Sobolweska, and Dora Polgar for attending our Steering Group meetings and providing valuable feedback on early drafts of the report. This report would not have been possible without the efforts of key people in the six European countries where we held workshops with third sector organisations. In particular, we would like to thank Peter Kreko, Oscar Moreda Laguna, Clotilde de Gastines, Adrian Chauvin, Sara Prestianni, Sano Lanucara, Paola Micalizzi, Ralph Du Long, and Hazel Nolan. We would also like to thank the many charities, social action groups and third sector organisations that hosted and attended our workshops across Europe. Thanks and gratitude are due to Riccardo Liberatore, Rutger Birnie, Kyriakos Klosidis and Sofia Patel for producing excellent Twitter analysis reports for Italy, Netherlands, Greece and the United Kingdom, respectively. As ever, this report would not be possible without the help and support of our excellent colleagues at Demos. Special thanks are due to Loraine Bussard for helping to organise the workshops, and providing fantastic translation for the French workshop. Special thanks are also due to our colleagues at CASM, Carl Miller and Simon Wibberley at University of Sussex for their help coordinating the Twitter analyses in the case study countries. We also had fantastic support from a very talented group of research interns and assistants, including Peter Acknowledgments Fitzsimons, Kate Kipling, Emma Marshall, Richard Norrie and Chris Waller. Thank you all for your hard work. Thanks also to Alex Krasodomski-Jones for producing our ‘how to’ guide. Last but not least, we would like to thank Rob Macpherson, Daniela Puska and Ralph Scott for guiding the report through the publication process, and Sophie Duder and Alice Meaning for their help in organising the launch event. The views expressed in this report represent those of the authors and not necessarily OSIFE. As ever, any omissions and errors are solely the authors’ own. Jamie Bartlett Jonathan Birdwell Louis Reynolds November 2014 9 Executive summary Electoral turnout is one of the most important indicators of democratic health. Low turnout undermines our democracy.1 In national elections across the European Union, turnout declined from an average of 77 per cent in 1990 to 68 per cent in 2013.2 Turnout in European Parliament elections has fallen further, from 62 per cent in 1979 to only 43 per cent in 2014. While the entry of new states from Central and Eastern Europe accounts for some of this decline, it only partially explains it. Part of the reason for declining voter turnout is that fewer people now trust political parties, join political parties or feel that it is their duty to vote. This is particularly true of younger generations. Yet, these trends do not necessarily suggest there is a loss of interest in politics or social issues by the public: they may instead be indicative of a shift towards new and different forms of political engagement, including online activity. Nevertheless, it is vital that efforts are made to reverse these long-term declines in voter turnout. Social media may provide the answer. There are now almost 295 million social media users in Europe, comprising 40 per cent of the population. Facebook alone boasts 232 million active users. The average European spends around four hours online per day, much of the time on social media platforms.3 More than half of social media users use platforms like Facebook or Twitter to receive news and information.4 We have also seen in the past five years how social media can be used to engage citizens who feel increasingly estranged from the political system. The rise of populist groups in North America (eg the ‘Tea Party’) and Europe, including Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement and other political groups such as the Occupy movement, all demonstrate the political power of social media.