Drug Violence in Mexico Data and Analysis Through 2012 SPECIAL REPORT By Cory Molzahn, Octavio Rodriguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk Trans-Border Institute Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies University of San Diego February 2013 About the Trans-Border Institute: Founded in 1994, the Trans-Border Institute (TBI) is dedicated to promoting understanding, cooperation, and dialogue between the United States and Mexico. As part of the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies at the University of San Diego, the institute conducts cutting-edge, policy-focused research; promotes public education and debate through distinguished guest speakers, roundtables, conferences, and public commentary on current events; and works directly with policy makers and stakeholders working to improve U.S.-Mexico relations and life along the border. About the Report: This report was prepared for the Trans-Border Institute’s Justice in Mexico Project (www.justiceinmexico.org). Since 2002, this project has been a focal point for research, scholarly interchange, and policy engagement to address the challenges and opportunities for the rule of law in Mexico. The research for this report has been made possible over the last year by the generous support of The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. This report was released on February 6, 2013. This report does not represent the views of the University of San Diego, the Trans-Border Institute, or its sponsoring organizations. Copyright Justice in Mexico Project, 2013. ISBN-10: 978-0-9835674-6-2 ISBN-13: 0983567468 Trans-Border Institute University of San Diego 5998 Alcalá Park, San Diego, CA 92103 www.sandiego.edu/tbi Drug Violence in Mexico Data and Analysis Through 2012 SPECIAL REPORT Cory Molzahn, Octavio Rodríguez, and David A. Shirk Trans-Border Institute Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies University of San Diego TRANS-BORDER INSTITUTE TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 1 I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 3 II. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................... 3 III. “DRUG VIOLENCE”: DEFINITIONS, DATA, AND METHODOLOGIES ....................................... 6 A. Defining the Problem .............................................................................................................................. 6 B. Data and Methodological Concerns ........................................................................................................ 8 1. Government Data on Homicide ........................................................................................................... 8 2. Organized-Crime-Style Homicides ....................................................................................................... 9 3. Analytical and Methodological Concerns .......................................................................................... 10 IV. FINDINGS: DRUG VIOLENCE IN MEXICO ........................................................................... 11 A. Elevated Overall Levels of Homicide ..................................................................................................... 11 B. Organized-crime-style Homicides Represent a Significant Share of Homicides .................................... 13 B. Recent Shift in the Trajectory of Violence ............................................................................................. 16 C. Shifting Geographic Patterns of Violence .............................................................................................. 20 1. Distribution of Overall Homicides ...................................................................................................... 20 2. Distribution of Organized-Crime-Style Homicides ............................................................................. 22 3. New Local Centers of Violence ........................................................................................................... 26 4. Analysis of Geographic Trends .......................................................................................................... 27 D. Victim Characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 28 1. General Population ............................................................................................................................ 29 2. Mayors ............................................................................................................................................... 29 3. Journalists .......................................................................................................................................... 29 4. Police and Military Personnel ............................................................................................................ 31 III. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENTS IN 2012 ............................................................................. 32 A. Major Arrests and Seizures .................................................................................................................... 33 B. The Proliferation of Organized-Crime Groups ....................................................................................... 37 C. Changing of the Guard: President Enrique Peña Nieto Takes Office ..................................................... 38 IV. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................. 39 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: National Homicide Rates in Selected Latin American Countries in 2010 (per 100,000 inhabitants) .......... 4 Figure 2: Total Homicides in Selected Neighboring Countries, 1995-2011 ................................................................................. 5 Figure 3: Homicide Rate in Mexico, 1995-2011 ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 4: Homicides in Mexico, 1990 to 2011 ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 5: Comparison of All Homicide and Organized Crime Homicide Tallies, 1990 through 2012 ........................... 15 Figure 6: Reforma Tallies for Weekly Organized-Crime-Style Homicides, 2006-2012 ........................................................ 17 Figure 7: Municipal Level Maps of Deaths By Homicide, 2006 through 2011 ......................................................................... 21 Figure 8: Municipal Level Homicide Maps, January through September 2012 ....................................................................... 22 Figure 9: Reforma Organized-Crime-Style Homicide Map, Jan-Nov 2012 ................................................................................ 23 Figure 10: Milenio Organized-Crime-Style Homicide Map, Jan-Dec 2012 ................................................................................. 23 Figure 11: Justice in Mexico Tally of Journalists and Media-Support Workers Killed in Mexico, 2006-2012 ............ 30 Figure 12: Journalists and Media-Support Workers Killed in Mexico, 2000-2012 ................................................................ 30 Figure 13: Mexican Law Enforcement and Military Personnel Victims of Organized-Crime-Style Killings, January 2008 through November 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 14: Mexican Army and Navy Budgets, 1996-2012 ................................................................................................................ 33 Figure 15: Arrests for Drug-Related Offenses, 1988 through 2011 .............................................................................................. 34 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Comparing Criteria for Classifying Homicides Linked to Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime ............... 11 Table 2: Overall Homicides by Presidential Administration ............................................................................................................ 13 Table 3: Comparison of Homicide and Organized-crime-style Homicide Tallies, 2005 through 2011 ......................... 16 Table 4: Percent Change in Homicides and Organized-Crime-Style Homicides, 2007-2012 ............................................. 17 Table 5: Mass Gravesites (Narcofosas), 2010-2012 ............................................................................................................................ 19 Table 6: Comparing Official State-Level Homicide Data and Independent Tallies of Organized-Crime-Style Homicides, January through November 2012 .......................................................................................................................................