Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg - Institut für Geographie Impacts of Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events on Electricity Generation and Possible Adaptation Measures – A GIS-based Approach for Corporate Risk Management and Enhanced Climate Mitigation Concepts in Germany Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.) der Studienrichtung Geographie von Jeannette Sieber, Dipl.-Geogr. Erstgutachter: Herr Prof. Dr. Roland Baumhauer Zweitgutachterin: Frau Prof. Dr. Ute Karl Karlsruhe, November 2012 “Hochwasser ist, wenn der Fluß tiefer wird.” Dipl.-Ing. Heinrich Sieber 2008 Acknowledgements This thesis was written between December 2008 and November 2012 at the European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER) in Karlsruhe. Without the support, help and assistance of so many people this would not have been possible. Here is the place to express my deepest gratitude. First of all I have to thank my supervisors, Prof. Dr. Roland Baumhauer, University of Würzburg, Institute for Geography and Prof. Dr. Ute Karl, European Institute for Energy Research. Both – but especially Ute - supported me in long discussions, encouraged me to work independently and practice-oriented and gave me the possibility to finalise this professional step. They gave me useful advice whenever needed. Moreover, this thesis would not have been possible without some special colleagues and friends, Susanne Schmidt, Sebastian Häfele and Bastian Hoffmann, not only for proof- reading and useful comments, but also for the helpful discussions on my work and the professional and non-professional support they gave me. I appreciate their contributions of time and ideas. To Marie-Eve Stoeckel and Camille Payre I have to express my thanks for the interest in my work and years of support and believe. Furthermore, I’d like to give my appreciation to all current and former members of the Energy-Environment Economics group at EIFER. To my families, Sabine, Dieter & Stephanie and Axel, Christine & Max, thank you for all your support! I also thank my friends: Eva, Andreas, Tanja and Thomas. It’ so good to know you’re always there. Last, but not least, I am grateful for having my husband with me. Heinrich, I would like to thank you most sincerely for all the support, strength and love that you give me. You guided me through the hardest phases in life. “Two are better than one.” Contents Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ IV List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ IV List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... VI List of Maps .......................................................................................................................... VIII List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ....................................................................................... IX List of Mathematical Symbols ............................................................................................... XII Abstract ................................................................................................................................... 1 Zusammenfassung ................................................................................................................. 2 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Knowledge Gaps and Research Questions .............................................................. 6 2. State of the Art .............................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Extreme Events and Shifts in a Changing Climate ..................................................... 10 2.2 Impacts of Extreme Events on Electricity Infrastructure .............................................. 13 2.2.1 Temperature-related Impacts ............................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Precipitation-related Impacts ................................................................................ 17 2.2.3 Wind-related Impacts ........................................................................................... 20 2.2.4 Impacts of Combined Events ............................................................................... 24 2.3 Adaptation Options ..................................................................................................... 30 2.3.1 Adaptation of Thermal Power Plants .................................................................... 30 2.3.2 Adaptation Options for Renewable Energies ....................................................... 35 2.3.3 Adaptation Options for Connected Infrastructures ............................................... 37 2.4 Management Concepts and General Decision Making ............................................... 39 3. Methods and Data ......................................................................................................... 44 3.1 Methods .................................................................................................................. 44 3.1.1 Problem Analysis ................................................................................................. 46 3.1.2 Assessing Alternatives ......................................................................................... 47 3.1.3 Decision Making ................................................................................................... 47 3.1.4 Implementation and Continuity ............................................................................. 48 3.1.5 Planning Process as a Cycle ............................................................................... 48 3.2 Data Acquisition and Handling .................................................................................... 50 3.2.1 Data from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) ............................. 50 3.2.2 Data from the German Weather Service (GWS) .................................................. 51 3.2.3 Data from the URBAS Project .............................................................................. 51 3.2.4 Power Plant Site Data .......................................................................................... 51 3.3 Statistical Analyses ..................................................................................................... 52 3.3.1 Air Temperatures ................................................................................................. 52 3.3.2 Precipitation-related Events ................................................................................. 57 I Contents 3.3.3 Wind-related Events ............................................................................................. 60 3.3.4 Combined Events ................................................................................................. 63 3.4 Synthesis on Statistical Analyses and the Integration of the Data into Concepts ....... 65 4. Local Planning and Enhanced Climate Mitigation Concepts ......................................... 68 4.1 Background Local Planning and Climate Mitigation Concepts .................................... 68 4.2 GIS-Analyses on Renewable Energies ....................................................................... 75 4.2.1 Hydro Power Plants ............................................................................................. 77 4.2.2 Wind Turbines ...................................................................................................... 86 4.2.3 Photovoltaic Installations ...................................................................................... 97 4.3 Case Study – Ice Throw from Wind Turbines in Germany ........................................ 110 4.4. Synthesis ................................................................................................................. 115 5. Corporate Risk Management and Climate Adaptation Options .................................. 117 5.1 Background on Corporate Risk Management and Implemented Environmental Management Information Systems ................................................................................. 117 5.2 Results of the GIS-Analyses of Thermal Power Plants ............................................. 120 5.2.1. Air Temperatures .............................................................................................. 120 5.2.2 Precipitation-related Events ............................................................................... 124 5.2.3 Wind-related Events ........................................................................................... 126 5.2.4 Combined Events ............................................................................................... 128 5.3 Case study - Flooding of Thermal Power Plants in Germany as an Example for Corporate Risk Management .......................................................................................... 130 5.3.1 Site-related Approach ........................................................................................ 132 5.3.2 GIS-based Approach .........................................................................................