THE LEGACY OF PEACE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 20 YEARS AFTER T THE LEGACY OF PEACE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 20 YEARS AFTER THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS H E EDITORS D AYTON PEACE AYTON AMER KAPETANOVIć JUDITH IllERHUES A CCORDS ThE LEGACY OF PEACE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 20 YEARS AFTER THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS Sarajevo, 2015. Title: Naslijeđe mira Bosna i Hercegovina 20 godina poslije Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma Original title: Naslijeđe mira - Bosna i Hercegovina 20 godina poslije Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma Authors: Srećko Latal, Nerzuk Ćurak, Đorđe Vuković, Goran Marković, Svetlana Cenić, Žarko Papić, Marko Radovanović, Jasmin Mujanović Hoda Dedić, Adnan Ćerimagić Editors: Amer Kapetanović Judith Illerhues Publisher: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Kupreška 20 71 000 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina Tel.: +387 (0)33 722-010 E-mail: [email protected] www.fes.ba Responsible: Judith Illerhues Proofread: Šejla Hasanović DTP: Filip Andronik Print: Amos graf Circulation: 150 copies CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji Nacionalna i univerzitetska biblioteka Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo 341.382(497.6)”1995/2015”(082) 323(497.6)(082) The LEGACY of peace : Bosnia and Herzegovina 20 years after the Dayton Peace Accords / [authors Srećko Latal ...[et al.]. - Sarajevo : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2015. - 260 str. : graf. prikazi ; 25 cm Prijevod djela: Naslijeđe mira. - Short biographies of the authors listed in the order of publication of the essays: str. 245-249. - Bibliografija: str. 250-258 i uz tekst. ISBN 978-9958-884-46-7 1. Latal, Srećko COBISS.BH-ID 22533382 Attitudes, opinions and conclusions expressed in this publication do not necessarily express attitudes of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung does not vouch for the accuracy of the data stated in this publication. Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. THE LEGACY OF PEACE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 20 YEARS AFTER THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS EDITORS AMER KAPETANOVIć JUDITH IllERHUES Sarajevo, 2015. CONTENTS Judith Illerhues FOREWORD .............................................................................. 7 Amer Kapetanović INTRODUCTION ...................................................................... 11 Srećko Latal AGREEMENT IN ITS LABYRINTH .............................................. 19 CHAPTER ONE THE CONSTITUTIONAL AND POLITICAL LEGACY OF THE DAYTON AGREEMENT ............................................................ 41 Nerzuk Ćurak STUDY OF RETURN OF THE STATE .......................................... 43 Đorđe Vuković FATE OF THE STATE IN THE CHARACTER OF THE PEOPLE ........ 65 Goran Marković REORGANIZING WHAT’S POSSIBLE ......................................... 89 CHAPTER TWO THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL LEGACY OF THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT .............................................. 119 4 Svetlana Cenić THE BOSNIANHERZEGOVINIAN PATH .................................... 121 Marko Radovanović BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S QUANTITATIVE EASING ......... 143 Žarko Papić CONSENSUS ON THE COMMON GOOD ............................... 161 CHAPTER THREE EUROPEANISATION OF THE DAYTON CONTEXT: EU AND THE FUTURE OF BIH ................................................ 181 Jasmin Mujanović FROM THE BOTTOM UP, FORWARD ...................................... 183 Hoda Dedić THE ARITHMETIC OF BAD ASSUMPTIONS ............................. 201 Adnan Ćerimagić THE IMAGINARY WORLD OF COMPETENCIES ...................... 223 Short biographies of the authors ............................................... 245 Bibliography ............................................................................... 250 Abbrevations ............................................................................. 259 5 FOREWORD Judith Illerhues he Dayton Peace Accords from 1995 brought an end to the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Twenty years later it is the Tright moment not only to sum up achievements, but also to reflect on the challenges Bosnia and Herzegovina faces today. The country is in a severe crisis, where the status quo has been prevailing for almost a decade with little progress in implementing important reforms. This lack of progress is expressed in an increasing political and economic instability and social inequality. Extensive research has been undertaken to examine the underly- ing causes of the stalemate. Some scholars identify the constitutional norm, which derived from the Dayton Peace Accords, as a main hindrance to reforms. It is true that the Dayton regime allows for a strong influence of veto power in the decision-making process, which is not favorable for implementing comprehensive reforms. But unfortunately, this argument is too often used to justify the prevailing absence of reforms in the country and the maintainance of the status quo. Since a comprehensive reform of the constitution seems unlikely at this point, the question arises: to what extent do the current political and social challenges occur as a consequence of the Dayton constitution? And more precisely: what can be done 7 to achieve further progress in political and social reforms as well as in EU-integration in the scope of the Dayton context? The complexity of these questions and the need for a better understanding and a constructive way forward for the country mo- tivated the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in Bosnia and Herzegovina to prepare this publication together with national intellectuals and researchers. As a political foundation, ‘think tank’ and platform for political dialogue, it is the core task of the FES in Bosnia and Herze- govina to contribute to analyzing sociopolitical challenges, develop- ing recommendations for policy approaches and engaging with our partners in a constructive and open dialogue to discuss solutions. This publication is the result of a joint effort by a team of intel- lectuals from various disciplines. Each author reflected on the topic from his or her own perspective and scientific background with the objective of specifying reform needs to address the current dilemma. They all started from analysis of the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and then highlighted the question of what kind of re- forms and actions are needed to strengthen political and economic stability, social equality and EU-integration in a sustainable manner. The publication’s objective is not to reach consensus on a single proposed way forward for the country. On the contrary, the idea is to assemble different – sometimes contradictory - views and to debate on a menu of options for Bosnia and Herzegovina to improve today’s situation based on analysis of a state-of-the-art debate. 8 Bosnia and Herzegovina 20 years after the Dayton Peace Accords | Judith Illerhues Our aim is to reflect the multifaceted public discourse and offer a platform for open discussion and exchange of ideas. The approaches and views presented in the essays may differ significantly, and they do not necessarily represent the editors’ opinion. But we believe that a pluralistic – and thus democratic - society is based upon the open discussion of different opinions, varying from more conservative to more progressive approaches. We would especially like to thank Mr. Amer Kapetanovic for his excellent contributions to the editing of the volume as well as all the authors for their valuable research, thinking and writing. We hope that their thoughts, ideas and insights provide readers with a better understanding of the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their joint efforts are an encouragement for all of us not to be over- whelmed by the complexity of the situation, but rather to contem- plate the opportunities and realistic scenarios for improvements 20 years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords. Foreword 9 INTRODUCTION Amer Kapetanović his publication is the result of intensive joint efforts by the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) Office in Sarajevo and Ta group of local intellectuals from Bosnia and Herzegovina, including authors, publicists and professors. Although published on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, known as the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA), the aim of the publication is not to celebrate this jubilee and write for this occasion but to use two decades of practical experience with the DPA in order to draw some relevant conclusions. This publication should be observed as a kind of introspection of local intelligence, which may not be greater that the international one, but which is most certainly adapted to the necessity of life in BiH as it is. The authors and the FES achieved agreement on such an approach immediately without any further ado due to the fact that, inter alia, there is not much that has not been said or written about this Agreement and any reiteration would actually be like writing in the sand. Therefore, we decided to focus on the issues that seemed insufficiently analysed, such as how to create a more functional state within the Dayton limitations without necessarily introducing Dayton II or substantial amendments to the Annex IV to the Agreement. Our intention is, therefore, to examine 11 if the non-functionality of the political systems in BiH within the Dayton framework is preconditioned by the constitutional norm, its absence or whether it is a result of many-years-long abuse, contor- tion of or even distancing from the Dayton Agreement as such. How much has this situation been instigated by clientelist