FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE March 18, 2011 ZSE STOCK MARKET Although most shares closed higher, due to 1.9% decline of oil and gas company w Ina (INARA CZ) domestic indices ended mixed with CROBEX adding 0.08% while CROBEX Last 2.260,7 CROBEX10 slipped 0.17% on regular stock turnover of HRK 25.2 million. % daily 0,08% Diversified producer and distributor Atlantic Group (ATGRRA CZ) was in % YTD 7,10% investors’ focus soaring 3.6% to HRK 805 on HRK 2.2 million in turnover. CROBEX10 last 1252,3 Investors await quarterly results which will also include consolidation of Droga % daily -0,17% Kolinska. On 2010FY results, Atlantic Group also posted pro-forma consolidated % YTD 8,49% results giving investors an insight into what to expect at 1Q2011 results. In pro- forma consolidation, revenues would reach HRK 4,6 billion (99.2% increase), Stock Turnover (HRK m) 25,21 EBITDA HRK 524 million (+159.8%), EBIT HRK 317 million (+116.2%) and Net Total MCAP (HRK bn) 207,12 Income HRK 173.8 million (+78.8%). Source: www.zse.hr Plastic auto-parts producer AD Plastik (ADPLRA CZ) gained 1.9% on turnover of HRK 1.9 million after newspapers reported that Renault’s partner Nissan is CROBEX MOVERS targeting significant portion of Russian car maker AvtoVaz which should, together with 25% currently held by Renault, secure major ownership. Large part of AD Plastik’s products ends in Renaults cars. -10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% INGR-R-A Construction engineering company Ingra (INGRRA CZ) soared 7.4% collecting THNK-R-A HRK 0.9 million in turnover. It seems selling pressure eased a bit after Ingra’s ATGR-R-A PTKM-R-A share price deteriorated 21.4% since the beginning of the year, after shares from IGH-R-A debt to equity swap flooded the market together with one of Ingra’s daughter ZABA-R-A company Ingra Gradnja which was also liquidating its position in parent company. DLKV-R-A KNZM-R-A Hotel operator Suncani Hvar (SUNHRA CZ) extended its rally rocketing 24.4% to VIRO-R-A ATPL-R-A HRK 48.5 after recent announcement that two major shareholders; Croatian ADRS-P-A Privatisation Fund and Luxembourg based Orco Property Group agreed to reduce HT-R-A JDPL-R-A claims by HRK 41.2 m through a debt-for-equity swap. ERNT-R-A CKML-R-A LEDO-R-A ULPL-R-A PODR-R-A LKPC-R-A KOEI-R-A KRAS-R-A KORF-R-A JNAF-R-A INA-R-A ISTT-R-A * data is calculated using last traded price Source: www.zse.hr CROBEX 3 MONTH MOVEMENT 2.400 70 2.300 60 2.200 50 2.100 40 2.000 p t s 30 1.900 Daily news headlines (more available on www.fima-securities.com): 20 HRKMillions 1.800 10 1.700 Cisco to pay first cash dividend 1.600 0 Japan supply chain concerns grow Turnover CROBEX Yen Eases and Markets Jump After G-7 Intervention Source: www.zse.hr DealBook: Fed to Release Results of Bank Stress Tests Continental recalls tires on Ford pick-ups For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel. +385 42 66 09 60 1 FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE Slovakians interested in Croatian market LIQUIDITY TOP 5 HT-R-A 4.353.772 HRK Slovakian venture capital fund Slavia Capital, which wanted to buy Ina’s chain of INA-R-A 4.067.818 HRK 14 filling stations Crobenz last year, is interested in acquiring a smaller bank in ATGR-R-A 2.209.203 HRK ADPL-R-A 1.919.214 HRK Croatia, and the talks are in the initial phase. Slavia Capital’s M&A Vice President PBZ-R-A 1.723.308 HRK Viktor Levkanic says the potential acquisition is in line with their regional Source: www.zse.hr expansion. In 2005, the fund purchase a 3.6-percent stake in Serbia AIK Banka, MARKET SENTIMENT in 2007 a 9.9-percent stake in Macedonian Investbanka. By acquiring a bank in No. of traded stocks 68 Croatia, Slavia Capital would make a breakthrough to the market. Last year, the Increase 43 Competition Agency rejected its offer for Crobenz due to non-transparent Decrease 25 operation. It was speculated that Ina’s owner MOL was behind the fund, but w/o change 0 Slavia denied this. Levkanic also denies they are buying Ina shares at the ZSE Source: www.zse.hr now. (Source: www.limun.hr original text was published on www.banka.hr) MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS Real GDP (Q2 2010)* 0,2% M. Vizek: If we continue to borrow like this, we’ll never make it to Real GDP (2009)* -5,8% Eurozone CPI (September 10)** 1,4% Unemployment (October 10) 17,8% For the third time in less than two years Croatia borrowed money at the U.S. FX RATE HRK per EUR 7,21 market. Unofficially, finance minister Martina Dalic sold American investors state FX RATE HRK per USD 5,82 bonds worth USD 1.5bn. The ten-year bonds were issued with a 6.375-percent Source: www.dzs.hr, www.hnb.hr interest, which is around 0.25 percent lower than in July 2010, when ex-finance * % change, yoy minister Ivan Suker was borrowing money in USA. In total, the new loan to be ** % change, yoy, end of period used for repaying old debts will cost Croatian tax payers around USD 2.5bn, or more than HRK 13bn. According to Bloomberg, even with the lower interest, CROATIA LT CREDIT RATING Croatia still has the most expensive borrowing in the world. If Croatia continues FitchRatings: BBB- to borrow like this, we will never make it to the Eurozone, Maruska Vizek of the Standard&Poor's: BBB- Moody's: Baa3 Institute for Economics says. (Source: www.limun.hr original text was published Source: www.hnb.hr in Jutarnji list) MIDPOINT EXCHANGE RATES OF THE CNB Vipnet to take over B.net? After having announced the sale of its telecom operator in Croatia – B.net 9,0 several times, only to cancel it later, Austrian Bewag has finally decided to sell. 8,0 The company now says it is ready to sell B.net when market conditions are right, 7,0 especially after excellent business results in 2010. B.net was established in 2007, 6,0 by merging cable operators DCM and Adriatic Kabel, for which Bewag paid 5,0 around EUR 55m. Bewag says a large number of companies are interested, but it cannot comment on the case until the acquisition process has been completed. 4,0 Reportedly, the Austrians have received six or seven serious bids. The most likely 3,0 candidates are Croatia’s second leading telecom operator Vipnet and investment fund MID Europa Partners. (Source: www.limun.hr original text was published on HRK/EUR HRK/USD Business.hr) Source: www.hnb.hr For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel. +385 42 66 09 60 2 FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE CROATIAN EQUITIES (FUNDAMENTAL MULTIPLES) Average Mk cap (HRK price (HRK) m) P/E P/S P/Bv EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/S Yd 09 10e 09 10e 09 10e 09 10e 09 10e 09 10e 09 10e Industry Adris Grupa (preferred)* 267,5 4.795,9 9,6 8,0 1,7 1,5 0,8 0,7 4,0 3,4 5,9 4,5 1,1 1,0 2,6% 2,6% Belišće 631,0 734,7 265,8 0,8 1,3 22,3 13.517,0 1,6 0,0% Ericsson Nikola Tesla 1.618,1 2.154,7 17,2 1,5 1,8 12,5 24,7 1,1 7,4% INA 3.995,9 39.958,9 - 1,7 3,4 31,5 2.670,4 2,0 0,0% Konĉar DiST 1.200,0 303,0 9,2 0,5 2,2 5,7 8,5 0,5 8,6% Konĉar Elektroindustrija 543,2 1.397,1 12,4 0,5 1,0 12,6 40,2 0,5 0,0% Petrokemija 143,7 480,2 - 0,2 0,6 - - 0,4 0,0% Food Ĉakoveĉki mlinovi 3.800,0 399,0 16,9 0,6 1,0 7,3 13,6 0,6 3,2% Kraš 422,0 579,7 15,3 0,6 0,9 7,2 13,3 0,8 4,7% Ledo 6.231,9 1.372,1 13,5 1,2 2,1 14,6 19,7 1,9 0,0% Podravka 316,8 1.717,3 - 0,5 1,1 1.396,5 - 0,8 0,0% Viro 430,2 596,5 170,3 1,1 2,4 13,3 20,9 1,8 0,0% Telecom HT-Hrvatske Telekomunikacije 284,9 23.332,5 11,5 12,6 2,6 2,8 1,9 2,1 5,2 5,3 8,4 8,4 2,2 2,3 12,0% 8,8% Construction Dalekovod 261,4 599,5 6,7 7,1 0,2 0,2 0,9 0,8 5,0 5,4 6,6 7,1 0,5 0,5 0,0% 0,0% Hidroelektra Niskogradnja 147,3 91,9 17,0 0,1 0,5 2,7 5,0 0,1 0,0% Institut IGH 1.852,6 293,8 27,5 0,4 0,8 14,6 32,5 1,5 0,0% Ingra 13,6 102,0 - 0,2 0,2 22,5 26,2 1,7 0,0% Tehnika 1.280,0 242,5 20,3 0,2 0,8 32,8 - 0,5 0,0% Viadukt 255,0 116,5 - 0,1 0,7 4,7 - 0,2 5,4% Transportation Atlantska Plovidba 729,9 1.018,6 - 20,9 1,3 1,2 0,8 0,7 12,5 8,3 401,1 22,2 2,8 2,6 2,7% 2,7% Jadroplov 144,5 236,5 - 1,0 0,4 12.823,7 - 1,1 0,0% Jadranski naftovod 3.133,9 2.328,0 19,6 5,2 0,8 7,6 14,9 4,9 0,0% Luka Ploĉe 1.368,2 304,6 74,1 2,0 1,6 16,3 54,2 2,1 0,0% Luka Rijeka 221,0 1.321,9 369,5 5,8 3,8 51,5 124,1 6,2 0,0% Uljanik Plovidba 641,9 372,3 7,1 1,6 0,7 9,2 23,3 4,9 6,2% Retail/Wholesale Atlantic Grupa 795,8 2.653,5 31,2 21,6 1,2 1,2 3,7 3,2 14,4 11,6 18,3 14,2 1,3 1,2 1,1% 1,2% Konzum 203,9 4.630,0 13,6 0,4 2,6 8,1 10,2 0,6 0,0% Magma 23,8 116,0 - 0,1 7,1 - - 0,7 0,0% Tourism HUP - Zagreb 1.379,5 650,3 25,5 2,4 1,2 12,6 33,2 3,5 1,2% Istraturist Umag 257,4 1.203,4 32,0 3,2 1,6 13,8 26,1 4,5 0,0% Liburnia Riviera Hoteli 2.050,5 620,6 679,0 3,1 0,7 21,9 138,8 3,4 0,0% Maistra 60,0 657,1 - 1,4 0,7 19,3 - 3,2 0,0% Plava Laguna 1.720,0 1.040,0 21,0 2,1 0,7 6,1 17,0 2,2 4,4% Riviera Poreĉ 220,0 803,8 - 1,4 0,6 16,7 - 2,9 0,0% “ - “ s t a n d s for negative value of multiple * multiples for Adris Group calculated on diluted basis For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel.